Triple Option

1. Auburn.  While Duke has the head-to-head win and better power ratings, Tigers get the nod with better record and leading the historically deep SEC. Will have to shake last season’s choke, but this is The Team if the tournament follows the early round revenge narratives like it has frequently (Virginia, Baylor, Kansas, UConn, and Purdue all lost before the Sweet 16 in the year prior). Johni Broome is elite, but I have questions if they can survive a foul trouble game. Lock a for 1-seed regardless of finish to regular season. 
2. Duke. Lot of firepower, but also a lot of freshmen. Will enter the tournament fairly rested since the ACC is awful and they should be able to coast through the conference tournament, which could be a pro or con in the Dance as they might not be battle tested enough. Also undefeated when Cooper Flagg doesn’t slip on the final possession. 
3. Alabama. Playing slightly more defense than last year. Deepest team in the nation full of known commodities. Fan base did not travel at all to Arizona last year which is alarming, but the Tide have been on the doorstep for a while, and at some point will break through.
4. Houston. Know what we’re going to get. Super athletic and well-conditioned, one of the few programs that have a stable identity, and made the Big 12 look easy for a second straight year. Probably make the Final 4 last year if Shead doesn’t get hurt, and they won’t get upset in March, so it will come down to if they can finish against teams as talented as them, which they have gotten better at doing in Big 12 play. 
5. Florida. Have only played in 5 games decided by two possessions or less. One blowout loss to Tennessee, but otherwise have dominated everyone on their schedule. Still being slept on; going to have to prioritize the A&M game this weekend to round out my analysis, as only the Gators, Duke, and Houston are top 10 offense and defense in KenPom.
6. Tennessee. Still trying to shake the “Best program to never make a Final Four” narrative. Have looked like a 1 seed at times this year, and with Chaz Lanier taking the Dalton Knecht role and Zakai Ziegler driving the best defense in the country, the Vols will be favored in every game moving forward, and will need to avoid the gaffes that have caused early exists in the Rock Barnes era. 
7. Michigan State. Unlike the past four seasons, MSU peaked midseason, and isn’t relying purely on Izzo’s calendar to salvage the season. This year, March for Sparty should serve as an added stimulus for an already hot team that feels destined for a 2-seed. Big ten tournament is a gauntlet that has not been worth it recently, but it’s there if the Spartans want it because this is the most complete team in the Big Ten.
8. Wisconsin. Lost AJ Storr and Chucky Hepburn and somehow got better. John Tonje has been the spark. Major game in East Lansing on Sunday. A bonus incentive for a higher seed is the first weekend games in Milwaukee, which would be a welcome home game after the loss to JMU in Brooklyn a season ago. 
9. Iowa State. Had a February stretch when Momcilovic was hurt and winnable games were lost, but otherwise have played like a top 10 team. Lot of returning experience from the Sweet 16 team.  Tuesday matchup with BYU will be for a double bye. 
10. Michigan. Dusty May has revived the program with a mix of Danny Wolf and his FAU transfers. Have a murderer’s row on deck to finish the season with Illinois, Maryland, and Michigan State, which should warrant a 3 seed if they can make it through that stretch 2-1. 
11. Kentucky. Identity has changed under Mark Pope with the ultra-experienced mix of transfers. Have had their peaks (Duke, Tennessee twice) but also looked very at times, especially on the road, as they will finish the regular season with double digit losses. Because the team is so new, there should not be any pressure to avenge the past few early exits, but regular season signature wins do not move the needle in Lexington, and this experiment will only be considered a success if it ends in San Antonio.
12. Texas A&M. Benefitting from the strength of the SEC, but don’t have a signature win against a top team. The handicap with A&M is they are one of the most physical teams in the country and foul a lot, so depending on the whistle anything could happen. They do have the best point guard in the country in Wade Taylor, which will make a difference against teams that tense up. 
13. Arizona. Recovered from a tough November to show well in their first year in the Big 12, while the other 3 PAC 12 transfers struggled. Return most of their core from last seasons Sweet 16 group, and the Cats will be the most talented and experienced team in most games they’ll play going forward. Do have an iffy March track record under Tommy Floyd. 
14. St. John’s. Have taken the next step under Pitino after barely missing the tournament last year. Second best defense in the country per KenPom, and will be able to push for a 3 seed with a win at Marquette or strong hometown performance at the Big East tournament.
15. Texas Tech. Still the McCasland “no shots until less than 5 seconds on the shot clock offense,” but a lot of those shots are threes, and there are talented shooters so many go in. Good team to research matchups on which teams defend the three well. Not sold on them being as high of a seed as they will be, but the program needs to get back to the second weekend to prove Chris Beard runs were not aberrations.
16. Purdue. Much more well-rounded after last year’s strategy of “give the ball to the 7’6” guy, and while they’ve battled inconsistency, the floor is high with good guard play. A repeat of last year’s run is not likely
17. Missouri. Keeping the theme of teams that really sucked last year but have done a 180, but unlike Michigan and Louisville, Missouri kept everything the same but just took the next step. Clearly a third-tier contender from the SEC, as they have not been dominant like Auburn, Bama, UF, or UT. However, Mizzou has distanced themselves from the Mississippi schools and has merited top 16 consideration. 
18. Clemson. Metrics are poor, and strength of schedule is weak outside of home upsets of Duke and Kentucky. Evan Miya has the duo of Viktor Lakhin and Dillon Hunter as the most efficient pairing in the country. Very good track record in March coming from 4-7 seed territory.
19. Kansas. Preseason #1 has nosedived in February in the Big 12 gauntlet, and they might not be done losing. Texas Tech, Houston, and Arizona is the end of the regular season. Can point to wins over Duke, Michigan State, and Iowa State as signs of their potential, but the high profile names on the roster have not translated to on court success yet. 
20. Marquette. Somewhat disappointing conference performance after a promising start to the season. Kam Jones has emerged with the loss of Tyler Kolek for a team that has constantly turned over and gotten good seeds in March under Shaka Smart, but have not broken through past the Sweet 16 yet. Play UConn and St. John’s next week, so they will get a good chance to make a push for a top 16 seed. 
21. Ole Miss. Have not had a marquee win since Alabama in January, but has become a balanced team under Chris Beard that will get a good seed. Will learn a lot next week as they play Tennessee and Florida for the first times this season.
22. Maryland. Weak non-conference strength of schedule, but strong KenPom ratings and have won enough Big Ten games against strong opponents to justify a 5 or 6 seed. Five players averaging double digit points.
23. Louisville. Pat Kelsey will provide the sideline and campus shenanigans, but like Michigan has revived a dumpster fire program, especially considering how they avoided the landmines of the ACC that took out Pitt, Wake Forest, and North Carolina. 
24. Mississippi State. See A&M analysis, but less depth. Top 5 athletic team in the country though, with the ability to score a ton of points. 
25. St. Mary’s. Very much a known commodity as the Virginia of the West Coast with its usual batch of international superstars, but took dominated the WCC unlike any other season. Have gotten to March consistently, but not made any noise once they get there, and that will be the narrative until the Gael’s can take the next step. 
26. Oregon. Came out incredibly strong in the non-conference with signature wins over A&M, San Diego State, and Alabama, but have regressed in the first year of Big 10 play, yet remain above .500 in conference. The lack of depth cost the Ducks last year in their upstart run to the Round of 32, which will remain a question into the tournament this year with a whole new group. This will also be the first tournament since the Final Four run in 2017 where Oregon does not have to scrap and claw in the conference tournament to make an appearance. 
27. BYU. Making a late surge up the seed line with some signature conference wins. While they got a favorable path in the Big 12, the Cougars have distanced themselves over the likes of West Virginia, TCU, UCF, Cincinnati, and K-State as middle of the pack teams, while challenging Baylor and Kansas in the second tier of contenders. Trip to Ames gives them one final chance to surge up the rankings, otherwise they’ll settle for a 7-8 seed.
28. UCLA. Have expressed their frustration with the cross country travel, as their only win east of the Mississippi was at Indiana, but have defended Pauley Pavilion and went 5-1 in PAC 12 games
29. Memphis. Bounce back year with PJ Haggerty and Tyrese Hunter transferring in and coming out of the gates hot with wins over Missouri, San Francisco, UConn, Michigan State, Clemson, and Ole Miss. That’s their kind of profile it takes to be an at-large lock from a non-power conference.
30. Creighton. Similar to Iowa State with Kalkbrenner, Ashworth, and hardwood Mason Miller leading an experienced Sweet 16 team, but really struggled in November with a tough schedule and haven’t distanced themselves in Big East play. Will be a sleeper Final 4 team, but there is a reason they’re their record. 
31. Connecticut. Can’t figure out what the storyline is here. Either the poor MAUI showing, Big East sleepwalking, and disastrous loss to Seton Hall means the 3-peat is cooked and the country has caught up to the Huskies, or Hurley’s got something up his sleeve and wants to take the road less traveled. The Baylor and Gonzaga wins haven’t aged well, and UConn has not really shown they can beat an elite team, so any optimism is purely trusting the brand.
32. New Mexico. Quietly have built a very strong resume with wins over UCLA, VCU, and Utah State x2. Won’t have to sneak in the back door like last year, and have a superstar in Donovan Dent to carry them.
33. Gonzaga. Ike and Nembhard have done their job, but the Zags haven’t had their same mojo this year, as St. Mary’s swept them and ran away with the WCC regular season crown. I’m not a doomer saying they won’t make the tournament like many are, but it’s been a while since Gonzaga hasn’t been a low seed.
34. Vanderbilt. Road win at A&M should lock up the 10th SEC tournament spot. While they benefitted from the overall SEC bump, does not discredit the job Mark Byington has done in Year 1. Also love the list every player as a point guard on their roster move.
35. Illinois. Trending towards a repeat of 2023, and pretty much no one back from last year’s run. Have shown flashes of being good, but hard to trust this group with so much inconsistency.
36. Utah State. On track to make third straight tournament with three different coaches. Will be in their standard 8-9 spot pretty much regardless of the Mountain West result. 
37. Baylor. Even with big name players and an established name brand, really haven’t don’t anything to stand out in terms of quality wins or signature performances. Big 12 depth has left lots of scars, but the ceiling is a 2022 UNC run where they’re under-seeded but as talented as any of the 1s or 2s they’d play in Round of 32. 
38. Ohio State. Should not have to worry about returning to the field after a three year absence, but the Buckeyes have not shown anything special outside of a December blowout of Kentucky and road win in West Lafayette. 
39. West Virginia. Darian DeVries has brought the program to relevance in Year 1, but after his son got injured the team hasn’t shown anything to suggest they’re a deep run contender. 
40. Drake. Familiar program, entirely new program built off 5th year former D-II standouts. Have at large life if they make it to the MVC championship, but otherwise in a similar spot to Indiana State last year. The Vandy win will help. 
41. Arkansas. Flipped the switch after Cal’s return to Rupp, and starting to look like a team. As bad as he was in the final years at UK, Cal has thrived in the underdog role. Will likely need a trip to Dayton, not an 11 seed you want to face. 
42. VCU. Like UConn, the loss to Seton Hall hurts, but they’ve done enough to have an at-large shot if they lose in the A10 championship. 
43. San Diego State. The early season win against Houston is going to have to age well. Don’t stand out in the Mountain West
44. UC San Diego. First year eligible for D-I tournament after transition, and have been up to the task. Slight at large possibility if they don’t win the Big West, but may not get the benefit of the doubt. Not confusing at all having San Diego, UC San Diego, and San Diego State all as D-1 teams. 
45. North Carolina. Not a strong case to make when your best wins are UCLA, Pitt, and SMU, but it does help when your name is North Carolina. Unlike Wake and Pitt, UNC has not lost the gimme games in conference which will help, but they probably need to beat more competitive against Duke next Saturday than they were on February 1st. 
46. Oklahoma. Clinging to strong non-conference wins over Arizona, Louisville, West Virginia, and Michigan, because the power ratings aren’t strong and a 4-11 team in conference does not have a strong case. Ole Miss, Missouri, Texas to finish the season. 2-1 and probably safe.
47. Nebraska. 10-1 out of conference, a 6 game losing streak in January, then a 4-game heater, 1-3 since then. Need to win 3 more games, regular season or tournament, to be in IMO. 
48. San Francisco. Only WCC team that took down St. Mary’s, and have a strong enough non-conference profile where they have a shot to make the WCC a three bid league. They will need to beat Gonzaga tonight. Without that, a 13th or 14th SEC team will get the nod. 
49. Wake Forest. Have been square on the bubble for the last three seasons. Deals have been in all of my projections, but it’s hard to make a case after losing to NC State and UVA. Upsetting Duke would be tremendous, but otherwise this will be sweaty. 
50. Georgia. Trending upwards with a signature win against Florida to pair with early season wins over St. John’s and Kentucky. Saturday game against Texas is huge to decide the 13th best SEC team, which may be how many get in. 

Honorable Mentions

1. Texas. Need to hope the committee really force feeds the SEC narrative if they lose to Georgia, but wins over Kentucky, Missouri, and a split with Texas A&M is better than a lot of these teams ahead of them. 
2. SMU. Severely lacking a signature win. Don’t get many more chances so probably need to get the ACC 4-seed and beat Duke for an at-large.
3. TCU. Other DFW team has gotten used to being comfortably in the field, but never got the signature wins until Texas Tech last week. Have a favorable regular season schedule, probably need to win all three plus two in Kansas City to have a chance.
4. Cincinnati. Reminder they exist. Have done nothing to excite me or stake a claim to make the tournament, but it’s a mid team in a good conference. The classic “a few wins away from being a few wins away.”
5. Boise State. We learned last year that the committee does not think highly of Mountain West teams, so while the Broncos have impressively shown fight to end the season, it probably won’t matter unless they win in Vegas. Same with Colorado State and Nevada.
6. UC Irvine. Don’t have the metrics or quality wins to get an at-large bid, but will be an 11 or 12 if in the field. Hopefully Big West is chalk so we can get a UCI vs. UCSD final.
7. George Mason. Similar to Irvine, not going to get any traction as an at-large but would be a strong 11 or 12. 
8. Yale. Upset Auburn last year, and have breezed through a deeper Ivy League. Will have to survive the 4-team bracket but will be a nightmare 12-seed for whatever 5 gets in trouble.
9. Wichita State. Probably not a team you expected to see, but after a lackluster start to conference play, 
10. Oregon State. Another bid steal threat, and they have made an Elite 8 in this decade. They have also won single digit games multiple times this decade, but the WCC has been more favorable,
11. Georgia Tech. ACC has quietly become a rich man’s A10, and is now pretty much a bid steal league as there’s only 3 guaranteed teams in. After an underwhelming non-conference, GA Tech has established themselves as the best of the bad ACC teams, and have showed enough promise where they could be frisky. Still would need to go through Duke. 
12. Arkansas State. The Boys have emerged from a meme into a legit tournament contender. The Sun Belt has a 6-team cluster at the top, and the staggered tournament format makes this final weekend and tiebreakers vital to deciding who makes it to the 68. Were overmatched against JMU last year after a Cinderella run, but boost a road upset versus Arkansas 
13. Pitt. Not going to give up hope, but a sub .500 record in a below average conference is not going to get an at-large spot despite how good they were in the non-conf. 
14. NC State. Just kidding. DJ Burns isn’t walking through that door. ACC tournament only takes the top 15 teams, so the late-season pixie dust isn’t 
15. Grambling State. Currently 8th in the SWAC which puts them in the conference tournament, but the G-Men have taken a clear step back after taking down the Evil Empire last season. Highly unlikely they will be playing postseason hoops after SWACtion.