Triple Option

Since a big part of my process is to recall and compare teams by their wins and losses, this process helped me rank the non-conference element, and will be a reference as the conference data comes in. The “MinConfW” column represents what I believe is the minimum number of conference wins a team must attain in order to be considered safe for the NCAA tournament. In SEC, Big 10, and Big 12, those leagues are considered deeper and performed better in the non-conference portion, so the bar is lower, as finishing 9-9 in the SEC will be quite an achievement this year as wins will be at a premium. In the ACC and Big East, relatively poor non-conference outputs mean that teams will have to distinguish themselves in conference play to make an at-large case. “Range” is a projection based on the early season data sample with how many games each team can reasonably expect to win in March. For teams that’s Min Conf W is below their minimum range, they are safe bets to make the tournament. For the ones with Min Conf W well above the maximum range, those are long shots that will not likely have an at-large case barring a major turnaround in conference. Teams with a Min Conf W within the range are expected to be the bubble teams.

The order of teams is intentional, representing my rank of the teams’ non-conference performances. It can be as simple as record and strength of schedule, but it often is not.

Big 10

SEC

Rest Coming Soon