Triple Option

10/02/2024

The landscape of college sports has drastically changed even since I stopped playing two and a half years ago. The gap between pro sports and major DI programs has narrowed as the gap between those major DI programs and small schools has ballooned in response. Athletes are finally being defined by their marketability, which is what everyone always wanted, but there was no anyone would be prepared. Tyson Chicken is luring Cal away from his lifetime deal at Kentucky, SMU is legally paying players, and the Saudis are now funneling their money into top SEC and ACC operations.

And so my take with realignment has always been to take it for what it’s worth. It’s very clearly a money grab, as evidenced by the increase in commercial times and non-stop promotions for companies that don’t need any more recognition than they already have. But the 2023-24 college football season exposed every flaw in the previous system, so the sport clearly needed a shake-up. In my sports utopia I wouldn’t have put Oregon in the same conference as Purdue and Maryland, but it’s entertainment on a TV with two teams playing football, so it’s not the biggest injustice ever.

I will say that this Pac 12/ Mountain West dilemma has unfolded in a way that has baffled me beyond anything else. When Oregon State and Washington State were abandoned, secured the legal rights to control the conference’s assets, and formed a temporary scheduling alliance with the Mountain West, a merger seemed like too natural of a solution. The Mountain West’s leadership and stability would embrace the increased branding from the Pac 12, which catastrophically failed to survive as a viable league, and would have to focus on becoming the 5th best conference in sports.

I’m not sure who dropped the ball if there was one to drop, and it’s not my place since I’m not at all close to sources. And if there’s one thing we’ve learned about realignment, it’s that university agendas and executive networks dictate conference trajectories more geographically creative, common sense ideas from us internet people.

Noe both conferences are in a pickle. It’s become clear that the Mountain West was not in fact a unified bunch, with 5 desirables and 5 undesirables , with UNLV and Air Force falling somewhere in the middle. Both sides played their hand, but now they must compete for the same teams in order to survive and reach the 8-team minimum. There will now be two western American conferences, and still only one group of 5 spot in the reformed playoff, and not a lot of plausible options.

So the first question we have to ask is: Which conference is more viable? The Pac 7 now has two true powerhouse athletic programs in San Diego State and Boise State, and two power 5 holdovers that constantly relegated to little brother status in their states, essentially operated as group of 5 programs. Fresno, Colorado, and Utah States all stood out in the Mountain West, but don’t really scream national championship potential.

The Mountain West retains has 4 of its original members overs in UNLV, Air Force, New Mexico, and Wyoming. Nevada and San Jose State were unable to generate enough buzz after arriving from the WAC (compared to Fresno and Utah State), and thus were left behind as undesirable. Hawaii fits in, but they still have to travel the most out of any team, and because of their partial status, doesn’t really factor in to the long term math of the conference.

The biggest news, which can’t be undervalued, is Gonzaga joining the Pac 12. How the Pac 12 was never able to lure the crown jewel of basketball realignment with 12 actually established programs with regional convenience is beyond me, but nonetheless this conference just added more distance to the dying image of the Mountain West, which like the C-USA, now feels like the travel team formed from the all the kids who were cut.

We can say RIP to the Big 12 becoming the Mega 12 with Gonzaga and Connecticut which would have been more a more kickass basketball conference than the NBA in the 90s. Yet it still felt inevitable with the rising image of the Mountain West in the past 5 years in basketball, it was only a matter of time before Gonzaga was always going to be a factor in.

Now the biggest fish become the 2 Dakota powerhouses, which have dominated the FCS in the past decade and alternated Summit League representation in March. The obvious reason that North Dakota State and South Dakota State have remained FCS is that there is no point moving up to a bigger challenge when you will not have a seat at the table, and you can dominate in your current spot. For James Madison and Sam Houston State, playing for bowl games and the designation of being at the highest level is a better alternative than losing in the Semifinals of the FCS playoffs (they did each get their FCS ship though). But when you can call yourselves 9 time national champions (in 11 years), it makes no sense to join the MAC to compete for a chance to play in the Potato Bowl.

Even with the archaic 2-year postseason restriction that would be necessary, with continued investment and finally a chance to legitimately have a shot at the DI championship people care about (that’s not a shot at the FCS, just a comment on what’s popular for the masses, not the true football hardcores), the Bisons and J-Rabbits would legitimately enter the Pac 12 as favorites. While all 7 and the Gonzaga rugby team have viably funded programs, none of them are exactly inspiring an Alabama or Ohio State level fear where this is clearly a step above. The Pac 12 is a perfect entry point. It’s not the MAC, but it’s also not the SEC.

So where does this leave the Mountain West? For the Mountain West, you need 2 teams to be legally viable, so naturally the first team that came to mind was the historic powerhouses of Texas State. The Bobcats made their first last season, taking down Rice in the First Responders Bowl formerly known as the Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl (throwback to when that bowl followed me on Twitter for like a week). Momentum is high in San Marcos, but considering that beating UTSA for the first time in 5 years and almost beating Arizona State is the highlight, I wouldn’t say that’s exactly a top notch program.

However, it seems like Texas State is the one who is too good for the Mountain West, as yesterday talks reportedly broke down between the two parties. Effectively this would end any perceived poaching from the Sun Belt, which apparently has too steep of exit fees for the schools to pay ($5M) and a very stable 14-team league.

Pivoting to the C-USA, UTEP doesn’t move the needle, but as the Conference USA becomes more of the melting pot conference for FCS teams looking to make an upward move, the Miners are geographically isolated from 10 of the 11 other current and prospective teams in the league (Delaware & Missouri State). The only local conference rival for the Miners is New Mexico State, which applying the Men-In-Black glasses for the 2022-23 basketball season, is a solid program that of late has brought some competitive energy to the gridiron. Both teams do make more sense in the Mountain West, but a reminder for the tenth time that that geography has zero correlation to realignment in 2024.

You can pursue UTEP and New Mexico State, and go raid the Big Sky for Montana, Montana State, Eastern Washington, Sacramento State, and Weber State. Practical? Yes, but does that make you stand out? You have to compete with the Pac 12, which took your top 5 programs, for this 5th playoff spot, with a perceived weaker internal schedule that will inherently bias a committee. How does a 10-2 Boise State compare to a 12-0 Wyoming? 9-3 vs 11-1 vs a 10-2 American team? The financial forecasting here is very confusing. You can take the Pac 12’s settlement money as a consolation for being raided, but that’s probably going to end up being used to raid another conference and increase marketing costs, and they’ll fall too far behind to be presented as a viable competitor.

I still wouldn’t rule out a merger. Maybe whatever feelings were hurt can be forgotten if two competing companies realize their best interests would be to combine and corner the market to increase earnings potential. It happens all the time in business, this could all be leverage negotiations disguised as this great divide.

It comes down to a prisoners dilemma. Neither is better off from a merger, but losing a competition from a split would leave the loser much worse off than the winner is better off. They can sit and deliberate whether to rat each other out and make this a high stakes 1v1, or accept that the best outcome might be awkward, but ensures their success and survival, especially with Gonzaga now on board. Is it better for these two conferences to pursue their independent preferences, but find that the market cannot support 2 mediocre west coast leagues, while the American and Sun Belt distance themselves? Or should everyone to swallow their pride, and just merge into yet another mega conference?

I merely present these scenarios as someone who wants the entertainment value of the college sports landscape to succeed, without the subtle hierarchies that have formed over the past 30 years. As much as monopolies are frowned upon in corporate American, this might be an example of where makes sense and can make everyone better off. Sometimes competition drives down prices and creates efficiency, but sometimes the costs become too high and a break-even outcome isn’t attainable. By shrinking the competing market, the monopoly can monitor the costs and prioritize making a profit without having to fight off an opponent. From the NFL/AFL, NBA/ABA, and in a less parallel but nonetheless anticompetitive move, the MLB/Negro Leagues, the economics in sports seem to suggest monopolies are is necessary for groupings of teams, because all competing leagues do is kill each other off and weaken the overall product.

For once I just want to see a conference realignment that makes sense to a passive observer, creates more winners than losers, and gives fans something new and exciting would to that. The Pac 24 or the PMWC would do that.

One thing is guaranteed in realignment: The developments end up being so ridiculous and geographically illogical that almost any news is breaking news. Not “Scottie Scheffler has been arrested on his commute to Valhalla National,” but eye opening enough to make us realize that there’s a whole underworld of university executives and athletic departments who control the product that is college sports.

Enough rambling. Here’s 3 scenarios

Scenario #1: The Merger. The two conference path is really just a game of chicken and we’re waiting for something to blink, heading towards a merger where there is unevenly distributed revenues. 14 teams, 1 conference

Oregon State, Washington State, Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, Colorado State, Utah State, UNLV, Air Force, Nevada, Wyoming, San Jose State, New Mexico, Hawaii (football only), Gonzaga (non-football)

Scenario #2: So we’re really doing this. Pac 12 balances short-term to get to 8 teams while also playing for the future and getting to their namesake number. Mountain West scrambles but poaches 2 C-USA teams and uses their model. 2 conferences, 10 (12) teams & 11(12)

Pac 12: Oregon State, Washington State, Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, Colorado State, Utah State, North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Eastern Washington, Gonzaga (non-football), St. Mary’s (non-football)

MWC: Air Force, Nevada, Wyoming, San Jose State, New Mexico, New Mexico State, UTEP, Montana, Montana State, Weber State, Hawaii (football only), Grand Canyon (non-football)

Scenario #3: The annexation of Puerto Rico. UCLA, Stanford, and Cal decide they can’t make it work financially in the new geography and the prodigal children return. Mountain West merges with the Big Sky with an agreement with NCAA to shorten FBS transition window to 1-year. 2 conferences, 10(12) and 16(17)

Pac 12: Oregon State, Washington State, Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, Colorado State, Utah State, UCLA, California, Stanford, Gonzaga (non-football), St. Mary’s (non-football

MWC: Air Force, Nevada, Wyoming, San Jose State, New Mexico, Montana, Montana State, Weber State, Idaho, Idaho State, Northern Arizona, Northern Colorado, Eastern Washington, Sacramento State, Portland State, Hawaii (football only)

Any better ideas? Like/comment/reply and Follow me on X @M_Maynard32