Triple Option

For all those disappointed with the low number of “locks” I gave out this season, I promise that there was nothing to be had. The 2022-23 college basketball season was one to forget for the ol’ Nard Dog. Check out my Action profile if you really want to see how bad it got. If you faded me, you could probably pay for a ticket to the Final Four. Of course, we also had 0 out of 4 correct in the Final Four, whcih I can;t remember a time when that happened. Not only that, I somehow managed to have ten Elite 8 teams lose before the Sweet 16. Just a tough year all around for college basketball. Back to the drawing board next year.

But I will take credit for predicting the chaos, as I did tweet that this year would be 2014 all over again (7-seed UConn beat 8-seed Kentucky). I did not intend that literally in that UConn would cut down the nets again in Houston, but in hindsight that couldn’t have been more obvious. But we didn’t even make it to the Elite 8 without all one-seeds getting upset. The Mountain West finally won a game in the tournament! And not only that, but they made an actual run. We saw Gonzaga and UCLA play another epic thriller, and then Gonzaga proceeded to get absolutely blitzed just like in ’21. Purdue obviously lost to a double-digit seed for the third time in three years; keep in mind, the only other time a 1-seed lost to a 16, that group won the national championship a year later. 

And I guess 15-seeds making the Sweet 16. is the new normal. Three years ago I would have thought there was a greater chance a global pandemic shuts down the world than St. Peter’s makes an Elite 8. We “new normal” and I’m not thinking about wearing masks and working remotely for the rest of our lives, but instead the random New Jersey schools taking over the tournament.

We have 120 more minutes of basketball at NRG Stadium, which however you slice it will end with a surprising champion. Three of the four surviving teams have never made it to a Final Four before. The only coach with Final Four experience took an 11-seed there once upon a time. For the third time in four tournaments, we may see a first time national champion. And in what has become quite the theme of the NCAA Tournament, there aren’t any likely first round picks on the court this weekend.

Let’s dive a little deeper into each of these storylines:

The magical year for UConn athletics continued with the #1 rated team on KenPom. First Jim Mora resurrects the football program from questioning their FBS status to making a bowl game appearance. Now Dan Hurley is looking to be the third different coach in the past 12 seasons to lead Connecticut to a title. Here’s another one: Excluding Villanova as a 2-seed in 2016, the only non-one seeds to win the Big Dance in the past fifteen years? 3-seeded UConn in 2011, and 7-seeded UConn three years later. 

San Diego State built on the success of the Padres, by also taking down the number one team in the league. However, that 2022 Padres season is not a desirable omen for the Aztecs, as it was at this stage that the Padres lost in the semis. They survived a test from Charleston, a large deficit to Alabama, and a slugfest against Creighton where Matt Bradley was kept scoreless for most of the game. Like the 2022 Miami Hurricanes, SDSU was lucky enough to have the ball last, and benefitted from a convenient whistle. But you still have to make the free throws, which Darrion Trammell did.

Miami benefitted from favorable matchups (and favorable call from Bo) in 2021 to make a surprise run in 2022, and then became the only team to repeat in the Elite 8 this year. Stealing Norchad Omier from The Boys (Arkansas State) plus the year of experience turned what had been a mediocre ACC team into a full on basketball school (already looking ahead to the U football team under). Yet, they aren’t even the most surprising south Florida team to make it this far.

FAU had the fewest losses in the NCAA this year (both them and Houston finished 31-3), which usually merits a top seed,  Since 2015, when the conference had its current membership, the league won five out of seven first round matchups—and never had multiple-bids in the tournament. I’ve heard the “C-USA sweep” as a realistic possibility if FAU can somehow win two more games, after North Texas and UAB played for the fourth time this season in the NIT championship, and Charlotte took top honors in the CBI. For a league that will look completely different next year, this has been a feel-good farewell. 

As a side note, I had North Texas pretty much as the first team out all season because I knew their resume wouldn’t impress a committee, but they did deserve to be in. As did UAB, and that’s just a flaw in the system that maybe gets corrected with them all moving “up” a conference. North Texas should have been in FAU’s spot, who should have been in Iowa State’s spot because how in the world was that a tournament team. UAB could have taken ASU or Nevada’s spot in the play-in. The CUSA got screwed, and they’ve certainly made that known with this postseason performance . 

I don’t have much of a read one either of these games, and considering my track record this season, it would be insulting for me to try and find one. UConn looks like so obviously the best team that with how this tournament has gone, there’s no way they win, right? Could Florida Atlantic University actually win a basketball national title, despite basically never making a tournament ever before this year? 

Matchup wise, we obviously look at the FAU-Tennessee game for precedent. San Diego State can look at the tape, but it’s not like UT did anything bad, they just went dry for a spell, and SDSU has had their share of offensive woes this season. Their hasn’t exactly been a formula to beat SDSU lately, but they haven’t given up more than 75 points since January. They’ve only lost twice in that period. They only gave up more than 75 in regulation thrice this season. That’s the magic number for the Owls.

I’ll give two scenarios from each game to try and forecast game flow. Omier-Sonogo is going to be fantastic. UConn’s guards might actually be neutralized by what Miami will do on offense. However, this game could be over in the first ten minutes if Miami comes out cold again like they did against Texas.  UConn is winning after the under-8 timeout in the first half, they will win by 10+, but if we’re tied or Miami leads, flip a coin. SDSU probably wins if they keep the Owls under 75 points, and they definitely win if they keep them under 65. But if FAU goes over that number or the game goes into over time, #HootHoot.

My only expectation is that these final three games will be like nothing else the sport has experienced. And that’s the beauty of college basketball. Compared to football where it’s tough to imagine anyone outside of the main five teams winning top honors, basketball plays on uncertainty, peaking at the right time, and performing under pressure.

Everyone enjoy the last few days of college basketball!