Triple Option

Yes, there are six ranked on ranked matchups, three of which between undefeated teams, and the game I have the strongest opinion on is between two teams from the Conference USA.

Rice is (3-2, 1-0 in conference) is a four point underdog traveling to Boca Raton for the first time since 2016. FAU (2-4, 1-1 in conference) rides a three game losing streak, desperately needing a win ahead of a trip to El Paso. Mike Bloomgren is finally seeing some results in his fifth season, looking to build on a 4-8 season from a year ago. A couple bad turnovers inflated the score against USC, which was the only game they were non-competitive in. They played Houston close in a rivalry game that for years had been lopsided, and then took down C-USA powerhouse UAB before a bye week. FAU’s schedule is not impressive. They beat Reynolds-less Charlotte in Week 0, and the only other win is against FCS Southeastern Louisiana. A close loss to Purdue is fluky because Purdue was without their starting quarterback. In their other three losses, they surrendered 41, 40, and 45 points.

The public numbers scare me. 87% of the tickets have come on Rice (which was not that skewed when I grabbed this on Wednesday) per Action Network. I always take those numbers with a grain of salt, because how many squares are really rushing to the window to take this one? There is a bit of a wrong team favored vibe, as Rice has covered four games in a row, and with a better record, what do the oddsmakers know that I don’t?

These types of situations scream for me to take FAU, which usually I would. Rice is the better team on paperHowever, my process in terms of important stats I consider shows one glaring advantage for Rice that could shift the game flow in their favor. Both teams are comparable on third down (both offense and defense) and balancing turnovers, however, Rice’s offense has been really good in the red zone, while FAU’s defense has been very bad in the red zone.

I am not attached to these metrics, but because I believe the worst unit on the field is FAU’s defense, it makes sense to fade them. If both teams move the ball, I have more confidence that Rice gets a stop or a conversion when they need to.

While I am not confident enough to endorse a money line sprinkle as I normally would, I expect a close game. If FAU wins, Rice will have given everything they have, and it is a field goal deficit. I have not been involved with either of these Owls so far…tomorrow will determine how that will change in the back half of the schedule

Bonus Plays: No big games this week, and my card is relatively small. But a few games worth noting

Iowa State +15.5: I got this at 17. Iowa State has been good to be this year, as I am 5-0 when I am involved. We went against them in the right spots against SEMO, Baylor, and Kansas, and reaped rewards against Ohio and +2 last week to K-State. The industry belief is that Texas is much better with Quinn Ewers, which is why I want to sell high. At some point he has to come back down to earth, and realistically Iowa State’s defense might be better than Alabama and Oklahoma. A fiesty team in October, I will back Matt Campbell as a big underdog, as the system has been simple to fade him in short spreads and back him as a big dog in October.

Kansas +9/ML: Yeah it’s square, but there’s no way I can back Oklahoma after last week. Consistent with the Iowa State/Texas game, I am going with the narrative that Oklahoma sucks more than Texas is good.

Notre Dame -16.5: I hinted at it in my Marcus Freeman article earlier in the week, but the Irish have flipped a switch. I expect a letdown at some point, but Stanford has the longest FBS win drought in the country, and they lost a heartbreaker last week against Oregon State in the last minute in a game they should have won. Independent of that, I don’t think they have the talent or schemes to challenge Notre Dame, so I’ll reluctantly be on the Irish for the first time this year (0-2 going against them).

Georgia Southern +12.5: James Madison has been good to me. The outright win comeback against App State turned the Sun Belt upside down, and five games into being an FBS program, they are ranked. So out of principle we fade them now.

Minnesota -6.5: Same logic to fade a newly ranked team. Can’t bet this one but if you’re not in Illinois you should. Illinois will not move the ball with their backup QB in, and Minnesota is miles ahead of Iowa, whom the Illini shut down last week. Bad matchup, good spot to row the boat. Will probably be at this game so stay tuned.

Utah State -11: I told myself I would not bet on Colorado State again after riding them to an Iowa-esque win at the horn in Reno. This is the worst offense in the FBS. Utah State has been a disappointment, but they have started to figure it out and got a big division win against Air Force. If CSU doesn’t score, all we need is like 14 points from Utah State. Buckle up.

New Mexico -6.5: The Aggies lost to FIU, and can you really get any lower than that? I do believe the building blocks are there in Las Cruces, but New Mexico is farther along, and I believe from very early on we will see a talent mismatch. 41-10 final.

Hawaii–no I’m just kidding. Nevada might actually be the side though, as San Diego State just gave no threat to Hawaii, so this number could actually be inflated. This could be the best opportunity to buy low on Hawaii.

Ice sprinkle on Sabres ML: The NHL is back, which means that I am also back on naively feeling like a sharp NHL handicapper when I will just lose every game. So far we’re 3-1 with one of those teams being the early season dynasty that is the Buffalo Sabres.

Futures Update: Charlotte over, UCLA under, Tennessee under, and Minnesota under are all dead and have been accounted for as such. Akron does not look like they will be getting 2 more wins, so throw that in the pile as well. Vanderbilt is all I can fall back on, but a Mississippi State win would essentially clinch the over 6.5. UNC can stay on pace if they win at Duke, and a Southern Miss win against Arkansas State would be much appreciated, as The Boys are way better than I would have thought. The only real 50/50 one is NC State, who should be 3-3, yet sits at a lucky 5-1. This is going to be close, and without their quarterback tomorrow we need a loss, because the schedule does them favors.

The Parlay: Here we go. It’s a six teamer. +2899, Cal ML, Clemson ML, Tulane ML, Notre Dame ML, Kansas ML, UConn ML. UConn is improved! We’ve won two in a row with them, so this is essentially a boosted number on them. What could possibly go wrong?