Triple Option

By Michael Maynard

Last week, profit opportunities in college football were aplenty with seven double-digit underdogs winning outright. I reaped some of those profits with App State and MTSU, but I also had three undesirable outcomes by a half point (Ball State and Pitt +6.5, UNC -7) that kept a good week from being a great week. The lesson: Get a good number!  All four of these picks have moved unfavorably since I jotted them down as system leans, suggesting the smart betters with advanced models jumped on these four sides early and confidently. I still believe there to be value on the newer numbers, especially moving into Friday and the Saturday morning wave of public plays.

UTSA +12 at Texas (play to +10)

There are two clear layers to this matchup. One school of thought is to fade a banged up Texas team fresh off their near upset of Alabama. We can call it a moral victory, but realistically Texas should have defeated the #1 team in the country and let the game slip through their fingers, which can’t be sitting well with the players and coaches. The popular view of Texas football right now is that the Alabama game provides program momentum because of how competitive they were with the best of the best, but I lean the other way. Covering a large number is a moral victory—sure, maybe for Arkansas State against Ohio State. Losing the game on a last second field goal is demoralizing regardless of the opponent. Whichever way you spin the Bama loss, this is a terrible spot for Texas.

On the other side, the in-state, little brother motivation makes for a great spot for UTSA. Sitting at 1-1 after two overtime coin-flip games against Houston and Army, I think the momentum from West Point is significant in that UTSA is not an 0-2 team going into Austin. An outright win might be a stretch, but UTSA has a history of playing hard as a road underdog under Jeff Traylor (See 2020 game at BYU and 2021 matchups vs Illinois and Memphis). Both teams are beat up and have had emotional starts to the season, so I expect Texas to play ball control and get Bijan Robinson 30+ touches to break down the front seven and get this game done quickly. While Texas is more talented, I do not have full confidence in their ability to execute on offense, especially with a banged up Hudson Card at QB. For those reasons I am confident UTSA hangs around and puts up a good fight, and while I wouldn’t endorse them as a live dog, I like UTSA anywhere upwards of +10.

Pitt -10 at Western Michigan (play to -12.5)

The handicap here is simple: Pitt just lost a heartbreaker in overtime against Tennessee, concluding an emotional two weeks where they also came back to win the revitalized backyard brawl. Especially after a loss, this matchup screams “revenge spot,” especially for Pitt’s defense after being embarrassed by these MAC foes a year ago.  

The one downside to this play is that both of Pitt’s QB options, Kedon Slovis and Nick Patti, are injured, and similar to Texas, I’m guessing we get one of them at less than 100% rather than a third-stringer. Either way, this play is a vote of confidence in Pitt’s defense, that after two exhausting weeks against very good power 5 offenses, they jump on a young WMU team early and this game is never in question. 

Tulane +17 at Kansas State (consensus +14, play at +14 or better)

The Wildcats ran all over Missouri last week, rushing for 235 yards and 5.5 per carry. Tulane has not been tested thus far, with two blowout wins against UMass and Alcorn State. After an unusual 2-10 season where the Green Wave took Oklahoma to the final whistle and lost five games by 7 points or fewer, they have already matched last season’s win total with a significantly weaker non-conference schedule. 

Since the schedule became more favorable late in 2021, Tulane has been much better defensively. After facing Houston, SMU, and Cincinnati in a three-game stretch, they have allowed only 15.2 PPG in their past six matchups.  K-State will score more than 15 points, but I expect more resistance from Tulane than Missouri offered. Both teams’ game script will be to run the ball, and I have confidence in Tulane’s offense with experienced junior quarterback Michael Pratt that they can hang around with Kansas State in a letdown spot before the Wildcats head to Norman next week. If Tulane can get a few stops and keep the Wildcats in the 30s, this can be a 28-38 type game with possibly a backdoor open. There aren’t any more mainstream +17s, but any number allowing for a two touchdown deficit has my approval.

Colorado State +17 at Washington State (play to +15)

Sense a pattern? Let’s go with one more group of 5 team getting double digit points against an overvalued power 5 opponent. Football wise, I don’t have a lot of positive signals on Colorado State so far. The assumption with Jay Norvell bringing so many transfers with him from Nevada was that CSU would be a copy of a decent Nevada team from last year. However, it has taken more time to mesh in Fort Collins, especially with a tough non-conference schedule. They were pounded by Michigan and Middle Tennessee, but I am encouraged after they clawed back in the second half to score 19 unanswered points after trailing 34-0 last week versus MTSU.

I also like the fact that since Jake Dickert took over for the last six games of 2021, WSU tends to play to the level of their opponents.  Including last week, Dickart has two road outright wins as a double digit dog, but an 0-2 ATS record against non-power 5 opponents. That is too small of a sample to conclude any definitive trend, but part of the gamble relates to guessing when a trend might emerge before everyone pounces on it. This is a really good spot to capitalize on a hangover week after a huge program win in Madison, so despite all the unknowns with Colorado State, the bet is that they play their first above-average game of the season, while Wazzu comes back to earth.