Triple Option

From the data I have started accumulating for the D1 tournament, which is since 2010, I have a few nuggets for picking winners of regions and CWS participants. Since 2010, the number one overall seed has never won the College World Series, which does not bode well for Tennessee, who is trying to break that trend with a 53-7 record.  As for the other national seeds, since 2016, the top seed has won their regional 62.5% of the time, so 10 1-seeds can be expected to advance, meaning upset picks should be around 6 in total for safety.  However, 70% of the CWS is represented by 1-seeds during that span, meaning 2-3 underdogs advance to the 8-team tournament.  The champions do tend to be 1-seeds, with a few notable exceptions like 2015 Virginia and 2016 Coastal Carolina.

Since 2010, a noticeable Power 4 exists in college baseball with the SEC, ACC, Big 12, and Pac 12.  Excluding Coastal Carolina’s run, the only other conferences to advance a team to Omaha are the Big Ten (Notably Michigan’s runner-up in 2019, and Indiana in 2013 with Schwarber) and Big West (Cal State Fullerton twice and UCSB and UC Irvine once).  Louisville made it in 2013 also as a member of the Big East, and TCU made it in 2010 from the Mountain West, so those nine instances will not be counted in the next analysis. Of the four conferences, the pie chart shows the ratio of teams representing their conference since 2010. 

The SEC frequently puts 2-3 teams per year, the ACC 2, the Big12 1-2, and the Pac12 1.  While they do not get the most teams to Omaha, the Pac12 has produced three national champions in that period (Arizona, UCLA, Oregon State), as the ACC has only one (Virginia) and the Big12 none.  6 of the last eleven winners are from the SEC, with South Carolina going back to back from 2010-2011 and Vanderbilt winning twice in 2014 and 2019.  Mississippi State won the title last year, with Florida winning it all in 2015. 

One of the more perplexing variables to track in college basketball, which is my bread and butter, is if winning the conference tournament translates to national championships, or on a wider scale CWS appearances.  There exists both a logic that the teams that get hot in the final weekend tournament of the season stay ride that momentum further into the postseason, but a contrary outcome can also exist, where the teams safely into the tournament can rest up, or use the conference disappointment as motivation.  In all statistical likelihood, there will not be a trend because the 4-7 days off before the regional tournament can mess up a team’s rhythm or a hot streak just as easily as it can help it.

From 2010-2021, only 18 conference tournament winners (14 from Big 4) made it to Omaha.  Additionally adjusting for the Pac 12 not having a postseason tournament until this season, those numbers are actually 14 and 10 out of 88 (8 teams over 11 seasons), as four of the Pac 12 regular season champions made it to Omaha.  Only 2019 Vanderbilt and Coastal took home both conference and national tournament tournament victories.  This data suggest that teams ride momentum from conference tournaments infrequently, or at the very least inconclusively.  The Big 4 conference tournament champions this year were Tennessee, Stanford, North Carolina, and Oklahoma, so data suggests only one of them will get on a run.

In all likelihood, there will be a first-time winner this season.  10 of the 16 1-seeds have yet to win a national title, and only nine other teams from the rest of the field have attained highest glory.  Stanford has not won it all since 1987 and 1988, and it’s also been a while for Oklahoma State.  So for 12 of the 16 favorites, it is likely that one of them will experience national glory for the first time. 

FUTURES MARKET

I played a few teams to win it all pre-tournament that I thought had relatively good value.  I got at Stanford +1200, which for the #2 team in the country feels like great odds, but they do have a tough regional and possible super as well.  East Carolina is 65-1, and while the Pirates have established themselves as a powerhouse program in the past five years, they do not have much to show for it in the playoffs.  After dealing with a lot of injuries and flying more under the radar than they have been recently, this could be the year when the magic happens.  They do have UVA and Coastal in region.  Arkansas was my other play at +2500.  In what was a disappointing regular season for the Hogs, the #1 team from a year ago lost to NC State in the supers

Worth noting on NC State also is that the Wolfpack are noticably absent, as the 2021 team was notoriously hosed after winning their first two games in Omaha, only to be shut down by COVID protocols.  Even as freshman sensation Tommy White hit 27 home runs, a .500 record in league play was not enough to impress the committee.  If there is ever a time for a legacy selection this would seem to be it, considering its not like the Pack didn’t deserve to be in after being a runner-up in the ACC tournament and having an RPI of 33, higher than seven other at-large teams.  Well that’s tough. 

KNOXVILLE: 1. #1 Tennessee, 2. Georgia Tech, 3. Campbell, 4. Alabama State

Campbell makes their fifth straight regional appearance, but have never advanced further than that.  I think GT is a little overvalued, and that we could see them and the Fighting Camels split in the opening round and losers bracket games.  Georgia Tech is one of the better hitting teams in the tournament, so there could be a few slugfests in Knoxville.  I do not think Tennessee wins it all, but they won’t lose in the regional.  I could easily see them getting a series from whoever wins the Statesboro region, but the Vols take care of business in week one, probably in the minimum three games. Pick: Tennessee

STANFORD: 1. #2 Stanford, 2. Texas State, 3. UCSB, 4. Binghamton

Texas State rolled through the Sun Belt, and UCSB makes its third straight regional appearance, and I don’t think there is a big margin of difference between these two schools.  Both Stanford and UCSB have two of the best pitching staffs in the tournament, so I think that becomes the regional championship. I think it will take seven games to settle this region, But Stanford will take care of the Gauchos comfortably enough.  I expect a lot of 4-1 and 7-2 games in this region.  Pick: Stanford

CORVALLIS: 1. #3 Oregon State, 2. Vanderbilt, 3. San Diego, 4. New Mexico State

Candy had a down year by their standards, but was still a comfortable at-large selection, yet they have to travel to the Pacific Northwest to take on one of the top teams in the country. San Diego played well down the stretch to lock up a spot by way of the WCC tournament championship, but overall Oregon State is just a much superior team and is itching to make it back to Omaha.  After Stanford bested them in the Pac 12 tournament, the Beavers regroup and are not intimidated by the black and gold pinstripes of Vandy and become only two wins away from returning to Omaha for the first time since they won it all in 2018.  Pick: Oregon State 

BLACKSBURG: 1. #4 Virginia Tech, 2. Gonzaga, 3. Columbia, 4. Wright State

I never know how much geography plays a factor in these games, as everyone seems to have a tough commute to Blacksburg.  Wright State is experienced and plays an aggressive style of baseball that could cause some shock waves, and they had a down year relative to what they have been.  I will say experience plays out, as VA Tech is still new to playoff baseball, and Gonzaga bounces back from an underwhelming showing in the WCC tournament that cost them a host spot. Pick: Gonzaga

COLLEGE STATION: 1. #5 Texas A&M, 2. TCU, 3. Louisiana, 4. Oral Roberts

My handicap for this region is just going to be that TCU’s long time coach Jim Schlossnagle is now the coach at A&M, which is a horrible regional assignment by the committee to create a path for these two to play for a regional championship.  This move seems to have worked out fine for both sides, as long time TCU assistant Kirk Saarloos took over with not much of a drop off, while Schlossnagle oversaw a turnaround from worst to first in the SEC West.  Even if this breakup was not as hostile for the players as it could be made out to be, you always have to take the team playing their former coach who left them. Pick: TCU

CORAL GABLES: 1. #6 Miami, 2. Arizona, 3. Ole Miss, 4. Canisius

My read on Miami is that they are an Omaha team or they’re gonna get raced by Arizona or Ole Miss, both of whom have not played exceptional baseball and could break out any time.  I will lean into the former, and after a few developmental years with a young team, this is the year Miami breaks out and makes a tournament run. Pick: Miami

STILLWATER: 1. #7 Oklahoma State, 2. Arkansas, 3, Grand Canyon, 4. Missouri State

With all due respect to the Antelopes and the Bears, this regional is the matchup of OK State and Arkansas.  I expect three games between these two, which I give a slight edge to Razorbacks, who I mentioned earlier are looking to avenge their disappointment from last season. Pick: Arkansas

GREENVILLE: 1. #8 East Carolina, 2. Virginia, 3. Coastal Carolina, 4. Coppin State

My earlier analysis on ECU holds true.  This bracket has some fun teams, and as one of the last teams in Coastal has the prove-it spirit that seems to drive at least one 3-seed to Omaha every year.  An adjectival Carolina matchup between East and Coastal would be a lot of fun, but regardless I have a hard time doubting that the 51st state doesn’t make their third straight trip to a super. Pick: East Carolina 

AUSTIN: 1. #9 Texas, 2. Louisiana Tech, 3. Dallas Baptist, 4. Air Force

Good for the Fly Guys to find their way into a tournament, as despite only finishing four games above .500, Air Force finished top ten in batting average and led the conference in runs scored.  They did split with Texas earlier this season, and should be able to keep up offensively.  DBU disappointed in conference play, but they always find a way to make it to the regional championship.  With a Texas team coming off an Omaha appearance and a Tech team fresh off of winning the C-USA.  This regional is one of the more wide open in the bracket, and I can see any of these four winning.  I’ll still go with Texas to weather the chaos, but it won’t be without a loss.  I could see this region going underdogs in first matchup, and then Texas claws back to beat DBU for the regional. Pick: Texas

CHAPEL HILL: 1. #10 North Carolina, 2. Georgia, 3. VCU, 4. Hofstra

Not going to overcomplicate this region.  UNC is one of the better teams in the country right now and I don’t think any of these other three can compete.  Pick: North Carolina

HATTIESBURG: 1. #11 Southern Miss, 2. LSU, 3. Kennesaw State, 4. Army

It is a pretty safe bet that Southern Miss and LSU are going to meet for this regional ship.  These two are often paired together, but usually LSU is at home, and while their fans will travel, Southern Miss gets a shot to take down the SEC powerhouse with their best team in the past five years, and I think they get there.  Southern Miss feels like a spot where the regional is the goal, but they fade out in the supers, probably to Miami.  Pick: Southern Miss

LOUISVILLE: 1. #12 Louisville, 2. Oregon, 3. Michigan, 4. Southeast Missouri State

Since breaking out in 2019, Michigan has been in back to back NCAA tournaments, and while Oregon is well rested, I still give a Michigan team with a few holdovers from that 2019 team a slight edge.  I saw Louisville and Michigan win, SEMO upsets the Ducks and then loses to Michigan, and the Wolverines go on to win two games in a row to spark another run to Omaha for a program with a ton of recent momentum.  Pick: Michigan

GAINESVILLE: 1. #13 Florida, 2. Oklahoma, 3. Liberty, 4. Central Michigan

One 4-seed usually ends up getting hot and coming out of nowhere to make a regional run, and Central Michigan fits that profile, completing their three peat of the MAC last weekend.  However, last year USF stole Florida’s region from them, so that’s a tough spot for CMU in this region.  Oklahoma played well down the stretch, winning the Big 12 tournament in what was a down week for the rest of the conference, and Liberty did win the opening weekend series in Gainesville.  Despite the depth of this region, I will ride Florida’s momentum from their SEC title game run, and they bounce back to make a super for the first time since 2018. Pick: Florida

AUBURN: 1. #14 Auburn, 2. UCLA, 3. Florida State, 4. Southeastern Louisiana

Auburn probably should not be a 1-seed, but nonetheless they get a pretty weak regiona.  UCLA started off slow, but picked it up for Pac 12 play, and despite taking 3 of 5 from Oregon State, they did not time those with the Pac 12 championship, and have to settle for a cross country trip to the Plains.  A UCLA-FSU matchup seems likely here, as there is not a huge difference between those three teams.  I will go with the team that has been the most due in years past. Pick: UCLA

COLLEGE PARK: 1. #15 Maryland, 2. Wake Forest, 3. Connecticut, 4. Long Island

This region perplexes me.  Maryland and Wake are two of the top offensive teams in the country, but UConn is the Dallas Baptist of the northeast and always seems to claw their way to make a Game 7 in the opening round.  I will ride with Maryland to continue their dream season, but I have no idea the path they will take to get there.  All I now is if they loose a shootout to Wake in the second round, I do not want to play Connecticut in an elimination game. Pick: Maryland

STATESBORO: 1. #16 Georgia Southern, 2. Notre Dame, 3. Texas Tech, 4. UNC Greensboro

What an absolutely loaded regional.  Notre Dame probably should have gotten to host over Auburn, but instead takes a trip down south to face an upstart Georgia Southern team.  Texas Tech had a tough weekend in Arlington, but they were a top 16 team for most of the year, swept Oklahoma State, but overall had their ups and downs.  This is the toughest region to pick.  I will go with Tech because of the name power, but I think their matchup with Notre Dame in the first game is the opening round matchup of the tournament, and the winner controls their own destiny.  No disrespect to the Eagles, but they have their work cut out for them with two other ranked teams in the regional.  Pick: Texas Tech

PRE-TOURNAMENT CWS PICKS: Tennessee, East Carolina, Florida, TCU, Stanford, Arkansas, UCLA, Miami