Triple Option

Top 4 seeding:

The Saturday of chaos made rearranging the top three seed lines necessary, but all in all nothing changed that much, as Gonzaga and Arizona are still the top seeds. Baylor had the advantage of me not getting a chance to design the bracket until Monday, so they rode the momentum from the comeback win over Kansas into a sweep to Texas in Austin. The only red mark on the Bears resume is the sweep by Texas Tech, whom they will likely get a chance to avenge in the Big 12 tournament.

I don’t like giving Duke a 1-seed but it kind of happens by default. All of their losses were fluky and at their best they have wins over Gonzaga and Kentucky. They also have the greatest likelihood to win out, and there will be enough cannibalism in the Big 12, SEC, and Big 10 that would take some of the pressure off Duke.

The Big Ten tournament will yes be exciting, but I don’t see how there is much movement. Wisconsin will win at least a share of the regular season title but assuming they don’t win the conference tournament, they are probably locked into a 4-seed. Purdue has two head to head wins against Illinois and a better non-conference, as otherwise the two have been comparable in conference. I imagine this is going to result in Purdue being the 2 in the East and Illinois being in the 3 in the Midwest. This makes the most sense geographically.

The SEC is the big question mark because Auburn and Kentucky both have a case to be 1-seeds. In fact, many of my recent brackets have featured an ascending Kentucky that and both SEC squads as ones. Right now, the parity of the conference dropped both to twos, but if either wins out and wins the conference tournament a 1-seed seems deserved. This puts a lot of pressure on Arizona and Baylor, so if both those schools and Duke win out (which I would not expect), that would be the scenario where Duke drops to a two. Tennessee has a ceiling of a 3 and a floor of a 4. They have done enough to merit a top 16 seed but don’t have a strong case to be too 10. Winning the SEC tournament would probably change my mind, but they are probably best suited for the 3 in the East.

So one conclusion is that I do not plan to alter much the East region. Providence’s regular season title yes was lucky, but they deserve at least a 4-seed as their record counters the metrics, and they get a geographic advantage by playing in Buffalo and possibly Philly.

Texas Tech makes the most sense to go out West and be the next best team, which resolves the two seeds. Kansas and Villanova are the other three seeds, and they fill in where needed (have Nova getting stuck out West as the lowest rated three and Kansas balancing out the South region which lacks a Big 12 team.

Unlike Providence, Houston has good metric rankings, and while the Cougars have a similar record, they do lack a signature win and play in a weaker American. They are also best suited for a 4-seed. Wrapping up with the final top seed, UConn gets the nod as they have been hot lately, but the likely 4-seed to fill will be in the West region, which is available for whichever Los Angeles team wants to take it. If UCLA can win the rematch Saturday and not flunk out of the conference tournament, I like them to get the 4 in this region and maybe even jump Nova for a three. USC gets Arizona tonight and then UCLA before the Pac 12 tournament, so they have a chance to add some statement wins and carry on their momentum from a close win in Eugene.

Mid-Major Autobids:

Most of this has remained constant as I have to project the top team in the standings this late in the season, but as teams punch their tickets this will sort itself out. The big change from last week is that Northern Iowa beat Loyola to win the outright Missouri Valley regular season crown, which puts them in position for an automatic bid and shortens the bubble (more on Loyola’s status in a minute). To make matters simple for the play in game, I project it to happen between 12-seeds, which to maintain symmetry meant that one mid major would get bumped up to an 11, and that deserving team is North Texas.

Bid Stealing Storylines to watch:

If Loyola wins MVC, this is easy and they are only team in from conference. If they don’t, it still may be a one-bid league because Loyola does not have a super impressive resume and while they will get the benefit of the doubt with good KenPom/NET ratings and a good record with respectable nonconference, they are nowhere close to a lock.

In a very similar situation in the A10, I think Davidson has a slightly better case as an at-large bid than Loyola, but the A10 has a lot more quality teams with VCU, Dayton, SLU, SBU, and Richmond. All of these teams have potential to get hot in Brooklyn, which is always a thorn in the side of bubble hopefuls. It’s pretty clear the tournament only has room for one A10 team unless it’s someone other than Davidson.

Murray State will get in as an at-large if needed but they may as far as a play in game depending on how the OVC tournament goes. The good news for the Racers is the OVC does a double bye format with 8 teams like the WCC so they only need to win two games, so the loss would likely be in the championship to Belmont or Morehead State. But Murray State has not looked great lately so it’s not a given they win out.

I don’t see Gonzaga losing in the WCC tournament (St. Mary’s is in obviously but on the other side of the bracket facing Santa Clara), but a potential semi matchup with BYU or San Francisco could be interesting. That matchup between those two is a bubble elimination game. Both would make a compelling case with a win (SF more so), but a win over Gonzaga would put them comfortably in the tournament should they lose the next game and not get the auto-bid, while a loss leaves a big opportunity on the table.

Finally, the American may have some chaos, but the storyline is that SMU and Memphis could take down Houston and by doing so, avoid the stress on Selection Sunday and also avoid a trip to Dayton. Both are playing well and have defeated Houston, so both squads have opportunity ahead of them.

Lock seed ranges:

These are teams in “Bubble Watch” terminology I believe are in or should get in, but I have a range of what their ceiling seed is and floor seed is.

UCLA 3-5

UConn 3-6

Arkansas 4-5

USC 4-6

Ohio State 4-6

St. Mary’s 5-6

Alabama 5-7

Marquette 5-7

Iowa 5-8

Michigan State 6-8

LSU 6-8

Iowa State 6-8

Seton Hall 6-8

Boise State 6-9

Colorado State 6-9

San Diego State 8-10

TCU 8-10

Xavier 8-11

Wyoming 8-11

Wake Forest 8-PlayIn

North Carolina 8-PlayIn

Creighton 9-PlayIn

I would be flabbergasted if any of those teams ended up outside the field. I would also be shocked if even two weeks away from Selection Sunday and all the chaos that could happen, if any of those teams ended up outside of that range. That leaves the following teams in bubble territory:

Murray State, Notre Dame, Davidson, Miami, Indiana, Loyola, Memphis

And outside of the current field:

SMU, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Michigan, Rutgers, Virginia, San Francisco, Virginia, Kansas State, BYU, Dayton, Mississippi State, UAB.

**Keep in mind the definition of a bubble team, as they must be a team capable of making the tournament without needing an auto-bid. So in other words they must be capable of going on a run to impress the committee enough to consider them.

I am going to give these teams at least their weekday games to see if they can decide anything else, so a more descriptive bubble analysis will come out closer to Selection Sunday.