Triple Option

By Michael Maynard

Published 9/28/19 @ 9:30 PM CT

Bet the Mortgage Lock of the Week (5-0-0)

As much as I loved the board last week I despise the board this week. Last week I looked one time and immediately jumped on Wisconsin, Cal, and Coastal. This week I’ve scoured the slate of games and I’m getting absolutely nothing. But I think I found two to roll with to stay hot and stay unbeaten.

Notre Dame 10.5 vs Virginia

Notre Dame almost went into Athens and stunned Georgia. Virginia is a good team but they look due for a loss and they’re outmatched on the road playing a top 10 Notre Dame team looking to bounce back from a loss. I’ve seen this number anywhere from 10-12, I think the Irish can win by 2 TDs

Mississippi State @ Auburn Under 48

This just feels like an under matchup. 48 was the total of Auburn’s win over A&M, which pushed. Both these teams’ strengths are defense. The only scenario I see this going over is if Auburn gets a quick start offensively, say is up 28-3 at halftime, and Mississippi State gets a few garbage time scores to inflate the total. But I think it’s possible Mississippi State scores under 10.

Super Dog (1-1-1): Holy Cross +38 @ Syracuse

Having just watched Maryland get their souls ripped out against Penn State, I recall this Syracuse team losing by 50 earlier in the year to that same Maryland team. So without any prior knowledge of Holy Cross, I think they hang around within this hefty spread.

Other Notable Games

Ohio State at Nebraska

OSU has their first road test of the season. I saw a stat that they’re something like 1-4 ATS in most recent road games which includes Iowa and Purdue. This is their cross-division road matchup (they also go to Evansville), so they’ve been trapped here before. Meanwhile Nebraska has a chance to get their first marquee win in the Scott Frost era, though they might need to play a near perfect game to neutralize Justin Fields and the electric Buckeye offense that has scored at least 42 points every game so far.

Coastal Carolina at Appalachian State

I would have liked to see Gameday go to Boone this week with an underwhelming slate of games—they should at some point this season. App State has quietly put together winning seasons consistently since joining the FBS, and are probably better than the team that won the Sun Belt last year. I had them ranked after a win at UNC, and there is a chance they go undefeated. Meanwhile, Coastal looks on the brink of a breakout season in #3 in the FBS, having already taken out Kansas and sitting at 3-1.

Houston at North Texas

I established last week I’m done picking North Texas games. Houston’s while team seemingly is redshirting, but D’Eriq King’s decision looms large as the Cougars aim for a bowl game in Coach Dana’s first season. This had the potential to be a matchup of premiere QB’s, but the line jumped around 5 points with King’s decision. Will be interesting if NT can get a win in a third chance at a quality non-conference opponent before they look to run the C-USA.

Rutgers at Michigan

Doesn’t every team wish they could bounce back from a humiliating loss against Rutgers. This isn’t much different than Alabama playing The Citadel.

Minnesota at Purdue

Minnesota was fortunate to come out of the non-conference slate 3-0. I still like them to challenge in the Big Ten West. Purdue has not looked much better, and this is a critical Big Ten opener for both. Both teams had byes last week.

Washington State at Utah

Feels strange to say one of these two will be 0-2 in conference, but both suffered devastating losses last week, especially Wazzu who blew a 43 point second half lead. Everyone’s already lost once in the Pac 12 gauntlet, so while this game doesn’t have playoff implications anymore, it’s still crucial in the Pac 12 race.

Breakout Player of the Week: Charlie Brewer, QB, Baylor.

Last week I predicted Nick Starkel would break out in a cupcake game vs San Jose State, turns out Arkansas is worse than I thought which I guess is possible. Worth mentioning they do get a look on ESPN as Starkel plays his old team, though I can’t get behind a team +23 that just lost to one of the worst FBS schools in the last 5 years.

I’d argue Baylor has played the easiest schedule so far of anyone. This is a chance to prove themselves hosting Iowa State. I like the home field advantage favoring Brewer over Brock Purdy, but this could be a stat day for both.

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