Triple Option

By Michael Maynard

Published 9/21/19 @8:30 PM CT

My apologies for the absense of the last two weeks articles. To make for it, here’s a preview for today’s slate of games.

Bet the mortgage locks of the week (2-0-0)

Since I missed last week I have an extra play since I love the board anyway this week, including the fade UMass teaser that may become a weekly event.

Wisconsin -3 vs. Michigan

I don’t lose when I pick Wisconsin. I struck gold when I picked them to upset Villanova. The bowl game vs Miami was the easiest 40 confidence points of all time. I won’t overreact and say Michigan is bad, but Wisconsin is a better team. I don’t think they have a passing game but it’s the Big Ten so passing is optional. The Badgers haven’t allowed a point all season, which means something even though USF and Central Michigan are two of the worst teams in the FBS.

Cal ML @ Ole Miss

I can’t believe Ole Miss is actually favored in this game. Cal has arguably a top 5 defense in the nation and Ole Miss doesn’t scare me one bit. Cal can’t score but they don’t need to.

Coastal Carolina -17.5 @UMass

UMass lost to Rutgers opening week, then got slaughtered by Southern Illinois lol, and then Charlotte wasn’t even on the same field as them. Coastal Carolina is comparably to Charlotte. The Minutemen are the odds on favorite to go winless.

Superdog (1-0-1): UTSA +19 @ North Texas

I really want to pick Southern Miss +39. However I’m not sure if Saban complaining about the early kickoff is means for a lock or a signal Alabama is getting trapped. So I’ll lay off. North Texas is my bizarro Wisconsin. Every time I pick them to win they lose and vice versa. So let’s test my magic against an inferior opponent. They did cover at Cal last week but as I mentioned Cal doesn’t score so that’s not a difficult task. UTSA kept Army closer than expected in the Alamodome. No clue how that translates to a road conference game and Denton, but nonetheless I don’t like this pick one bit which makes me think subconsciously that it’s a winner.

Breakout Performer of the Week: Nick Starkel, QB, Arkansas. Ahead of a matchup vs his former team, the winner of the QB job has a big stat day vs. San Jose State as Arkansas continues their joke of a non-conference schedule as an effort to get back to bowl eligibility.

Other Game Notes:

Tennessee at Florida (11 AM, ESPN): A blowout victory against Chattanooga put a band-aid on the Tennessee collapse narrative, and the wound needs to be permanently fixed moving into SEC play. Tennessee is only two years removed from finishing winless in SEC play and has dropped 13 of the last 14 vs. the Gators. It was this game last year that jump-started the breakout season in Gainesville, and last weeks epic comeback in Lexington might mean the Gators are a week early this year. In that game, Kyle Trask impressed in relief of Feleipe Franks, and with Franks done for the year, this is Trask’s job. Florida rolls over the Vols and move to 4-0.

Boston College at Rutgers (11 AM, BTN): Could BC actually lose to Kansas and Rutgers in consecutive weeks? What a debacle that would be. However it is Rutgers so my expectations aren’t high. Eagles by 14.

Michigan State at Northwestern (11 AM, ABC): The wheels are falling off in East Lansing. Off the field, Mark Dantonio’s name is being thrown around in involvement with knowledge of a sexual abuse scandal with a recruit. On the field, Dantonio’s call to revamp offensive woes with internal shifting to the staff has not showed early promise. The two scored a combined 13 points in their non-conference Power 5 matchup. The O/U for this game is Cheez-It esque at 36. Northwestern has also won the last three matchups.

SMU at TCU (2:30 PM FS1): Speaking of the Cheez-It Bowl, it’s participants are a combined 5-0 and TCU looks legit early on. SMU has actually played very well to start the year, with wins against Arkansas State, North Texas, and Texas State. This is TCU’s game to lose, but with former Longhorn Shane Buechele this local rivalry could be interesting in a meh slate of afternoon games.

Auburn at Texas A&M (2:30 PM CBS): CBS college football is back! Well it technically was last week but in typical Bama fashion there was really no reason to watch. It goes without saying that Auburn needs to win to keep their playoff hopes alive, considering LSU, Florida, Georgia, and Alabama are on the schedule. For A&M, they do host the Tide and considering they kept Clemson close, it’s not inconceivable they run the table and make a playoff push, but the Auburn game has more of a significance in getting a crucial home conference win early in the Jimbo Fisher era. Having just watch Utah lose at a highly motivated USC team, I think a similar result occurs in College Station. Aggies by a touchdown.

Appalachian State at North Carolina (2:30 PM ACCNX): I honestly think App St. could beat UCF or Boise. They are on that level and get overlooked. A win vs the in-state “powerhouse” if one exists puts an undefeated season in play. It won’t mean a playoff spot, but should one of the two mentioned slip up, App State might be playing for the Cotton Bowl. Meanwhile UNC hosts Clemson next week, so as much early hype as the Mack Brown era Part II has generated, the Heels are in a very difficult stretch.

Oklahoma State at Texas (6:30 PM ABC): OK State had Texas’s number last year, and has won 5 straight in Austin which feels made up but shows where Texas has been in recent years. At first glance this looks like an easy win for Texas, all the more reason for it not to be. Texas’s defense hasn’t been great and OSU has put up some points. It’s not the biggest program hurdle remaining, but taking down Oklahoma State is a significant step for Texas becoming more back.

Notre Dame at Georgia (7 PM CBS): Best for last. This is the main event on a loaded day of games. How crazy would it be if Notre Dame actually won in Athens? From memory they played Florida State and Clemson to the wire on the road when those two were at their peak. So for that reason +14 looks doable for the Irish. Winner has an inside track for a playoff berth.

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