Triple Option

By Michael Maynard

Published 9/6/19 @1:40 PM CT

Top 10 teams win easy against clearly inferior opponents. Oregon beats Auburn on a late TD drive and Gus’s hot seat moves from warm to toasty. No other ranked teams lose aside from maybe Utah at BYU and some random upset against a team that shouldn’t have been ranked in the first place. Nebraska beats South Alabama 40 so the “Nebraska is back” talk escalates even further, while UConn and Rutgers secure their lone wins of the season. Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa set the Heisman race, but Justin Herbert’s late game heroics and Jonathan Taylor’s 250 rushing yards at USF make the early Heisman race interesting. I hype up Texas-LSU and Clemson-A&M, and look back on how wrong at least one of those projections were.

Flip Oregon and Auburn and I was actually pretty accurate predicting Week 1. Every other ranked team won; the near collapse I suggested almost happened in Ames as it took Iowa State three overtimes to hold off Northern Iowa. Utah continued their Holy War dominance despite the hostile environment and intervening weather. Nebraska did not look good, so the hype in Lincoln has quieted down ahead of their first road test of the season. And Wagner took UConn to the brink, but nonetheless the Huskies will not be going winless in 2019.

The one important reminder of Week 1: A win is a win. This is Year 6 of the Playoff system. Out of the 20 teams that appeared, not one of them had more than one loss. So while it helps to play good early, it may impact the rankings now, but at the end of the day nobody cares what you were ranked ahead of Week 2. So winning ugly is still a win. That means hope is very much alive for Florida, Nebraska, Minnesota, and I’ll even throw in Iowa State. Week 1 is a microcosm of the 12-13 game sample size.

Nonetheless, I’m required live in the moment somewhat so here’s my Week 2 Top 25 and conference power rankings based on one game.

If I’m going to judge teams entirely on what they did in one week, I need to make one rule: Play freaking FBS teams. There’s obviously enough of them—look how many I left out in the three bottom Group of 5s. Everyone in the Big 12: You telling me you can’t schedule Western Michigan or Troy for Week One? It pains me to rank Penn State in the upper half of the Big Ten just because they beat Idaho. But you don’t play an FBS team, then I don’t rank you.

North Texas is the one team I feel bad for forgetting cause they play SMU, Cal, and Houston in September, so at least they play a good schedule. Rice is not close to being the best team in the C-USA, but they played a hell of a game against Army so for that they get or that one week of praise. They also play Baylor, Wake Forest, and Texas out of conference. So for a team that’s won like 5 games in the past 3 years, I respect them not scheduling non-conference cupcakes.

Gold star of the week: The Mountain West. What a historic week for the conference. Lesson to Power 5 teams: Road games at MWC schools are not free wins, especially the ones on CBSSN (Nevada, Wyoming, Hawaii, 3-9 CSU last year against Arkansas). But Utah State took Wake Forest to the very end, Boise State locked down FSU in the second half, and I actually don’t think FSU is that bad.

The other two winners of the week are Wisconsin and Utah. USF is very bad, but Wisconsin was absolutely dominant and Jonathan Taylor had the big stat day I predicted (I think about 170 all purpose yards and 4 TDs). And I soured on Utah after they collapsed at the end of last season, but they were without their QB Tyler Huntley and RB Zak Moss. The majority of their defense is probably getting drafted. They’re the favorite in the Pac 12, even if Oregon would have won.

Speaking of Oregon,

Game of the Week: Auburn 27, Oregon 21

Oregon did not look great even though they led for almost all of the game. Auburn does have a good defense. It just took until late in the second half for the offense to get going, and Bo Nix became the guy, leading the comeback and of course throwing for the game winning touchdown despite being in field goal range. Why Gus didn’t go for two is beyond me, but Justin Herbert’s Hail Mary went 50 yards when it only needed to go 40 so that decision didn’t come back to bite him. For the second straight year, the preseason favorite loses an opening week neutral site game to Auburn.

Player of the Week: Jalen Hurts, QB, Oklahoma; 332 pyards, 3 TDs, 176 rshyards, 3 TDs

The big story in College Football right now. After relegation to the bench at Alabama, Jalen Hurts took his 26-2 collegiate record to Lincoln Riley’s QB factory and is the early front runner to be the third different OU QB to win the Heisman (and be #1 pick?) in the last 3 years. The historic stat being thrown around is the only other QB to have 3 passing and rushing touchdowns in a game is Johnny Football. The best part of this whole thing is Hurts does the post-game interview has no sense of accomplishment. He’s upset because they should have executed better. I guess 3 years under Saban instills that mentality–Which may be what they need to compete with Saban.

Back to my rankings, Clemson and Alabama are 1-2 until further notice. But Oklahoma is the clear #3 team right now. Is Oklahoma’s defense good enough this year where they don’t have to outscore everyone? Is a really good question. They kept Houston down enough to build and insurmountable lead, so 31 points doesn’t describe how well they played, and I think 31 points is perfectly fine with Riley. I said last week Houston would be a Big 12 caliber opponent, and they may be a literal one in the near future. But Oklahoma looked good, and it starts with their new QB1

Gambling Moment of the Week: Stanford covers off late NW fumble

The Oklahoma-Houston game somehow hitting the over 79.5 deserves a very honorable mention. But the Stanford cover is one of the worst all-time beats since I’ve been doing this.

If you didn’t see the play, Stanford was up 10-7 with about 25 seconds left in the game. Northwestern had the ball about their own 20 with no timeouts, so it was a long shot to march down the field and kick a field goal, but either way Northwestern +5.5 all but in the bag. Until Hunter Johnson gets sacked and fumbles the ball. The ball rolls into the end zone, and #73 on Northwestern has a play to dive on the ball and take a safety and preserve the cover. Which yes Northwestern would have had to recover and online free kick which I don’t think is legal or possible, but letting Stanford recover for a touchdown also ends the game too. Not only does 73 not recover the ball but he dives and misses the ball. So Stanford comes out with a ten point win and covers. That’s a hard “bad beat” to top this year.

Also worth mentioning: I had Wake Forest -3.5 and Memphis -5.5. Apparently Wake scored a TD on 4th and goal to take the lead, but nobody saw it cause nobody has any clue how to get ACC Network. But Wake wins 38-35 and Memphis 15-10.

Other notes:

• From Twitter:

Of course referring to Nix, Sam Howell of UNC and Hank Bachmeier at BSU. The movement to young QB is pretty remarkable. Arizona State also started a true freshman, and South Carolina is rolling with Ryan Hilinski next week. USC may have to as well after JT Daniels’s injury, and Wisconsin could also make the move to Graham Mertz if Jack Coan struggles. That’s potentially 7 true freshmen making impacts at big time schools.

• I can’t find who tweeted this nugget but Wake Forest has two quarterbacks from QB1, and neither are the starter.
• Continuing the theme of the SEC having a horrible start to the season, Paul Finebaum said Notre Dame should get a five-year playoff because of how poorly they were in the playoff. If my math is correct, 30-3=27 and 44-16=28. So we banning Bama too?
• More teams are scheduling home and homes with FBS opponents. In Week 1, when Power 5 schools played at Group of 5 schools, they were 2-5. There are 4 such matchups in Week 2.
• Western Kentucky was the only FBS team to lose to an FCS opponent.

WEEK 2 PREVIEWS

Game of the Week: LSU at Texas

Gameday is 2 for 2. LSU getting 6.5 in Austin is disrespectful to Texas, but reflects Vegas’s confidence in LSU’s transformed offense. They piled points on Georgia Southern, but UT also left no doubt vs Louisiana Tech. This is a big game for both, but LSU has to go to Tuscaloosa. That game defines their season, and if they don’t win as they’re not expected to, they’re not playing for the SEC championship and a playoff spot. They can’t afford to go into SEC play with a loss. I think Texas wins by a touchdown.

Bet the mortgage lock of the week: San Diego State at UCLA Under 45.5 (1-0-0)

Easy lock with the Tide even though Saban had to go for it on 4th down up 30 to make sure they covered. I don’t love any of the spreads on the board this week but I love this under. San Diego State won 6-0 against Weber State. Meanwhile UCLA put up 14 points in a loss to Cincinnati. I’m confident SDSU scores at most 10 points. So the question becomes if UCLA scores more than 35. I doubt it with SDSU’s elite defense.

Super Dog: Tulane +18 at Auburn (1-0-0)

Did not expect last week’s Super Dog to win outright, but I guess I overestimated Tennessee. GA State +26 was an easy dub, so we keep what’s working and once again bet against the SEC. Auburn is due for a letdown and Tulane has a ton of confidence after destroying FIU. Former LSU lefty QB Justin McMillan is a dual-threat challenge for the Auburn defense that admirably limited Justin Herbert. Like last week I think Tulane keeps it close, but good teams find a way to win. Tennessee isn’t a good team, but Auburn is.

Other Notable Games:

Texas A&M at Clemson

Last season A&M and Syracuse were the two closest teams to defeating the eventual champs. The Tigers get those two in consecutive weeks. 17-point dogs, the Aggies can make this a game if Junior QB Kellen Mond doesn’t make mistakes and they can slow down the Tigers offense. Which involves neutralizing arguably the top QB and RB in the country, but that’s what it takes to take down the champs.

Cincinnati at Ohio State

Luke Fickell’s brings a Top 25 caliber team to the Shoe in his return to Columbus. Not sure of this is a “test” for OSU or not, but Cincinnati absolutely believes they can compete with the Buckeyes. A classic little brother game, the Cincy players also may play with a chip on their shoulder facing the big state school that looked them over. But this has the makings to be an intriguing matchup.

Army at Michigan

Army took Oklahoma to overtime last year. Michigan’s defense should be able to handle the option, but the system has its moments of unexpected success. Army’s a good, discipline football team. They don’t make mistakes, so Michigan better not get trapped.

Syracuse at Maryland

Let’s see if Maryland dropping 79 on Howard was a sign of increased offensive efficiency or an FCS fluke. Maryland has recently started strong, and non-conference wins are vital when you play in the brutal Big Ten East. Syracuse shut down Liberty, so neither team has allowed a point. Important game for the Terps to get a crucial win early in the Mike Locksley era, but also for Syracuse to stay relevant ahead of a potential Gameday vs. Clemson.

Old Dominion at Virginia Tech

Only relevant because of the historic upset last year. Revenge game for the Hokies and they won’t sleep on ODU this year.

Nebraska at Colorado

This is my favorite matchup of the week. Last year the Buffs upset Nebraska in Lincoln, but neither team ended up making a bowl game. This year will be different; both teams should win at least 8 games. Adrian Martinez vs. Steven Montez is a great QB matchup and any time Leviska Shenault is on the field CU is must watch. I like that both programs are reviving the rivalry that dissipated after the Big 12 realigned.

BYU at Tennessee

Both teams come off potentially demoralizing Week 1 losses. BYU got it handed to them by their archrival and Tennessee lost to a Sun Belt team. Both play tough schedules, but the UT fanbase is not going to be happy with two home losses to start the season.

Miami at North Carolina

We could have Mack Brown starting 2-0 and The U dropping to 0-2. Plus with the tight Coastal race, any division matchups are crucial.

What I write about next week:

Texas staves of LSU and is now fully back. Clemson establishes themselves as the true #1 with a decisive win vs A&M. My bold prediction is that a top 15 team gets upset. Otherwise with more matchups with intrigue, Week 2 delivers.

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