Triple Option

By Michael Maynard

Published 7/27/2019 @ 4:50 PM CT

With the clocking ticking down on the July 31 trade deadline, this is it.  The August 31 revocable waivers trade deadline was eliminated, so at the two-thirds mark of the season, teams have to declare a stance: Buy or sell.  A recent MLB Network commercial depicted the event kin to the stock market, which accurately portrays the frenzy of all 30 teams scrambling to fill missing pieces for a postseason push or sell high on breakout assets and invest in the future. 

Everyone in the MLB sphere waits to see the impact of the one definite trade deadline.  Having the 25-30 additional August games to see how the standings unfold or which teams caught fire previously served as a buffer zone for teams who didn’t want to make a franchise altering move July 31st.  Now, the amount of risk poured into the trade deadline increases, as teams in the middle have to decide which direction they want to go. 

With many teams that don’t want to put all their chips on the table nor fold on the season, my hypothesis for the outcome of the trade deadline is that teams will take caution and not rush to blockbuster moves.  I will describe a few of these cases, like the Padres with Kirby Yates and the Rangers with Mike Minor, where the teams have to decide to either cash in on their high value now, or take the chance they compete next year with another year of team control.

I’ve organized this article is by the obvious buyers, obvious sellers, and the fringe teams that could go either way.  For the first two, I discuss which players they should trade or trade for, and for the last category, I discuss the merits of either buying or selling and which step should ultimately be taken.  Keep in mind that I analyze each team’s options from their desires on the market.  For example, if I say a team should trade for Madison Bumgarner, that does not necessarily imply that I say the Giants will trade Bumgarner. 

There are six very obvious buyers, which are the six projected division winners: Yankees, Twins, Astros, Dodgers, Braves, and Cubs.  I’m going to assume that those teams would ideally win the division and at the very least end up with a Wild Card, because that’s the approach their front offices will take.  There are also six very obvious sellers: Orioles, Marlins, Tigers, Royals, Mariners, and Blue Jays.  The Rays, Red Sox, Athletics, Nationals, Brewers, and Cardinals are all reasonably in the Wild Card race, and the Mets, Reds, Pirates, White Sox, Padres, and Rockies are all presumably out if it.  The Indians, Phillies, Giants, Diamondbacks, Angels, and Rangers could truly go either way.

Obvious Buyers

The obvious buyers are the teams that believe they have the current pieces in place to make a playoff run this season, and thus are willing to make a move sacrificing future assets for immediate upgrades. This is your Aroldis Chapman for Gleybar Torres move.  There is only one rule here and it’s that flags fly forever. 

Los Angeles Dodgers (68-37, 1st NL West)

Current State: The reigning back-to-back NL champions have come close in the last two years, and this may be their best chance in this championship window.  Cody Bellinger is the likely MVP. Max Muncy continues to write his redemption story. They are loaded with versatile players that play multiple positions, and everyone understands the lineup philosophy. They have three dominant, all-star starters in Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Walker Buehler that they could probably ride for all postseason in a three-man rotation.   

Need: Bullpen. Kenley Jansen has been a huge asset in the Dodgers’ previous runs , but this year he has been an average closer at best, and his heart issues mean he can’t be the only the reliever the Dodgers depend on.  Kenta Maeda and Ross Stripling will likely move to the bullpen, and Pedro Baez, Joe Kelly, and Scott Alexander are decent options currently with the Dodgers, but for a team that in reality could walk to a world series title, that bullpen does not exude a lot of confidence. 

Target: Mike Minor, Felipe Vazquez, Mychal Givens

Recent buzz says that Vazquez is their target, which will cost a bunch but solve a ton of current problems.  He’s also controllable for a few for years, so this is not a one-year go-for-it trade. Givens will be moved, simply because the Orioles are terrible and he can bring back some value.  With a back end of Givens, Vazquez, and Jansen, that is three closers in the 7th, 8th, and 9th that makes the Dodgers even more of a juggernaut.  

Minor makes a lot of sense sense.  He was extremely effective as a reliever with Kansas City, and with Texas emerged into an All-Star starter.  LA could use him as either, or both like they do with Maeda.  It will cost more prospect capital because he has great current trade value and another year of team control.  However, Minor would be able to provide longer relief outings, which takes some of the pressure off Jansen to throw multiple innings, as they have in the past.  Getting all three guys would entirely deplete the farm system, so it’s probably a matter of Vazquez or Minor.  But I’ve referenced numerous times the Dodgers are the clear favorite, so for that reason, the Dodgers should do whatever it takes to shore up this bullpen. 

New York Yankees (66-37, 1st AL East)

Current State: Deepest lineup in baseball. If everyone is healthy by postseason, lineup looks something like this: LeMahieu 3B, Judge RF, Stanton LF, Voit 1B, Gregorius SS, Encarnacion DH, Sanchez C, Torres 2B, Hicks CF.  While struggling mightily of late, the rotation is good: Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton, JA Happ, CC Sabathia, and Domingo German are all options.  Luis Severino could ultimately become a factor there as well, which serves as a roster addition in itself. He could also go down to the bullpen and join four quality relievers in Aroldis Chapman, Adam Ottavino, Zach Britton, and Chad Green.  There isn’t a glaring hole anywhere on this team.

Need: Pitching reinforcements.  With that said, good pitching depth in years past hasn’t stopped the Yankees from making moves to get high-end starters (Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Happ.) In addition, Dellin Betances may come back, which would be another significant addition with Severino.  But with both of those guys, there are questions about how effective they can be after missing the whole year.  They could also trade for Bumgarner or Marcus Stroman simply so someone else doesn’t have them, and they would be rotation fixtures.

Target: Shane Greene, Matthew Boyd, and Francisco Cervelli

Greene, the former Yankee starter, developed into an All-Star closer in Detroit.  Boyd is effective and controllable, which fits the profile of past Yankee trade deadline targets.  While they used their best chip—Justus Sheffield—last offseason to get Paxton, the Yankees have two MLB-caliber pieces to use in trades: Injured starter Jordan Montgomery and blocked outfielder Clint Frazier.  They can use both as focal points to move trade for both Detroit arms. Nobody knows what the entirety of the rumors surrounding Cervelli’s days as a catcher, but if he still is willing to catch, it makes sense for both sides to bring back another former Yankee.  Though he does have a not-cheap contract around $11M, but a veteran backstop behind Gary Sanchez is an ideal fit.

Houston Astros (66-39, 1st AL West)

Current State: Established players at all nine positions, including breakout rookie power sensation Yordan Alvarez at DH.  Also have two Cy Young candidates at the top of rotation in Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, as well as the best 1-2 bullpen punch in the league with Ryan Pressly and Roberto Osuna. 

Need: One more starter. Verlander, Cole, and Wade Miley have all been excellent, but the team is still trying to fill Dallas Keuchel’s spot in the rotation.  If would be incredibly beneficial to target a fourth solid option for the rotation, especially should they advance beyond the ALDS and have to play possibly seven games. 

Target: Marcus Stroman 

The Astros could end up promoting top prospect Forrest Whitley for the play off run, but in case he isn’t ready to contribute in 2019, Stroman is a must-year option.  The Blue Jays would assuredly ask for either Whitley or Kyle Tucker. Tucker would likely be more expandable, as the current outfield depth in Houston is blocking him.  

Minnesota Twins (63-40, 1st AL Central)

Current State: After establishing a healthy lead in the AL Central, the Indians have fought their way back to within three games of the division, and Minnesota is suddenly not a lock to win the Central.  Like the other two teams ahead of them in the AL, the Twins have a deep lineup and don’t need to make a big move offensively.  Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi have been great atop the rotation, and Taylor Rogers has become a lockdown option closing games.  If they stay healthy, they are better than Cleveland and should hold off the Tribe in the division. 

Need: Back end starters and bullpen depth. I could honestly copy and paste my answer for all top five teams for need because their lineups are all so good and pitching has been good, but you can never have enough come postseason.  Martin Perez, Kyle Gibson, and Michael Pineda are all okay options, but a tier lower than New York or Houston. The bullpen doesn’t have many big names but has gotten the job done. 

Target: Marcus Stroman, Daniel Hudson, and Ken Giles

Twins go big and get all three Blue Jays assets.  Hudson and Giles add support to the bullpen, and Stroman makes it three starters Rocco Baldelli can trust to win a playoff game, and is on the roster for a run next year.  Blue Jays get Kohl Stewart, who hasn’t got a prolonged opportunity in Minnesota, and their pick of Royce Lewis or Alex Kiriloff, as well as a few smaller prospects or Devin Smeltzer, who has been effective in limited opportunities this season.  Minnesota is set up to be good for at least three more years, but so are a lot of other teams, so they make a big move enabling them to go for it this year. 

Atlanta Braves (61-43, 1st NL East)

Current State: Another great lineup, with a healthy mix of veterans with playoff experience (Freeman, Donaldson, Markakis), with a mix of up and coming stars (Acuña, Swanson, Albies, Riley). Mike Soroka has made a ROY caliber season and emerged as their most dependable starter. 

Need: Pitching. Yes, another team needs pitching, except the Braves don’t just need pitching depth, they need pitching overall. Their rotation has been underwhelming if not merely inconsistent. Mike Foltynewicz followed up a breakout 2018 season with a poor showing and demotion to Triple-A. Sean Newcomb got moved to the bullpen, Julio Teheran has been iffy, Max Fried has been their next best pitcher but injured a lot.  And the bullpen has been serviceable, but could use an addition. 

Target: Kirby Yates

A Mike Minor reunion should be considered, as should Stroman. But Yates is the best fit on the market.  Luke Jackson has been okay closing games, but Yates turns the bullpen into an immediate strength. They could even thrown in Kevin Gausman, which gives the Padres a starter, which may be the best option they can get right now. Like Sonny Gray, he might flourish on a team a step behind in contending. 

The Braves did sign Dallas Keuchel, which may have  been their starting rotation upgrade. They also traded for Anthony Swarzak, which helps the bullpen.  It’s very possible the Braves don’t want to give up a haul for a Minor, Stroman, pr even Yates. They may end up standing pat. 

St. Louis Cardinals (56-47, 1st NL Central)

Current State: Standard Cardinals year. Within reach of the division and in the Wild Card race.  Not as many breakout players in the lineup, but the rotation has been deep and effective.  Paul Goldschmidt was their big offseason move that used their expandable farm system options, and while underperforming in the first half, he shown signs of putting it together.  They have also won 6 in a row and have taken back the division lead from the Cubs

Need: Better performance. And health.  Like Milwaukee, the Cardinals aren’t in play for another big move.  They will get Yadier Molina and Matt Carpenter back for the stretch run, but Jordan Hicks going down really hurt.  He had become a solid closer in a talented bullpen.  Carlos Martinez can become a crucial piece if he’s at his best, as can Andrew Miller and John Gant.  All can pitch multiple innings, and the rotation should be good for at least 6 innings most nights. 

Target: Jedd Gyorko for Ian Kennedy 

The Royals did a nice job restoring Kennedy’s value by converting him into a closer.  However in order to trade his big contract, they likely have to either a.) Eat a significant portion of the remaining salary, or b.) take back another decent size contract.  Gyroko has been hurt and should return within the next few weeks, but is all but blocked at all four infield positions and by Yairo Muñoz and Tommy Edman as backups. A stint as a veteran utility player in Kansas City may give him more playing time. 

Target: Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith, Asher Wojciecowski and Hansel Robles

If the Giants are going to part ways with these two pieces, which seems less likely as they’ve crept above .500, the Rays are an ideal fit. Tampa signed Morton to a big contract this offseason, and that’s probably the extent of the caliber of players they can bring to St. Petersburg. Therefore, they almost have to splurge on rental pieces if they want to get an impact player for a postseason run. 

Smith solves the bullpen crisis. Tampa adds a top-end reliever who pitches to both sides well and locks down the 9th inning.  The Rays are most likely to be in a position where their season depends on winning one game, and Bumgarner is one of the best options in a winner-take all game.  That allows them to ideally save some of their other weapons for a playoff series.  San Francisco probably asks for Wander Franco, the 18-year old phenom, but the Rays should absolutely not part ways with the league’s top prospect. Instead, they can use last year’s top prospect Willy Adames, who already might be phased out, and throw in Tyler Glasnow or Brett Honeywell. That package of big-league ready talent is what it would take to get the Giants to make this trade. 

If they have to trade Adames, Freddy Galvis of the Blue Jays is a good replacement for the postseason run as insurance if Franco doesn’t live up to the hype immediately.  As a Plan B in case the Giants aren’t selling—which feels like the likely case—I would also trade for Robles of the Angels, who has been good in the 9th inning, in exchange for Daniel Robertson, who proved last year he can play in the big leagues but has been blocked by the surge of young talent.  Rotation depth isn’t a horrible need, but with Snell, Glasnow Ryne Stanek hurt at the moment, they could go after another starter for the interim. Wojciechowkski has bounced around and finally found success in Baltimore, and while the Orioles need someone to start in the second half, they could get an average prospect for Wojciechowski, who has been great in his last two starts. 

Boston Red Sox (58-47, 9 GB AL West, 0.5 GB AL WC)

Current State: Probably in a slight gap year after last year’s dominant regular season and playoff run, but are starting to put it together after two big wins vs. the Yankees.  They lost their two key bullpen pieces and the rotation has been down, but the offense is still capable of keeping Boston in games. 

Need: Last year they had Craig Kimbrel. This year they don’t. It pretty much boils down to that. None of the relievers they used in middle relief/setup roles last year have stepped up, except maybe Brandon Workman. They’re going to try Nathan Eovaldi back there, which I actually like since Eovaldi has had tons of arm problems so it makes sense to decrease his usage. 

Target: Alex Colome

The Red Sox traded for Andrew Cashner, which enabled Eovaldi to move to the ‘pen.  That might be their upgrade.  But either Colome or Ian Kennedy would make sense as additional upgrades.  Kennedy has a bigger contract—which Boston has enough of—plus Colome is more dependable.  The White Sox are out of the playoff race for 2019, and with Colome entering free agency, they should move him.  At this point Boston is playing for a Wild Card, likely on the road, and then matchups with the Yankees.  Everything has to come together like it did last year, which is tough to ask for again.  That’s enough reason to not sell out on a top closer this year. 

Oakland Athletics (58-47, 8 GB AL West, 0.5 GB AL WC)

Current State: Once again making a mid-summer push, the A’s are not surprising anyone this time around.  While slipping in the AL West, a second consecutive Wild Card push is well in play.  Matt Chapman finally was recognized as an All-Star, Ramon Laureano and Marcus Semien have had breakout years in the power category, and Matt Olson has been on a tear the last few weeks.  Lost a big piece of the rotation when Frankie Montas got busted for PEDs, but traded for Homer Bailey and Jake Diekman The A’s also could get back Sean Manaea and Jharel Cotton at some point late season, which could negate any other rotation additions.  Mike Fiers is inconsistent but overall a good option, and Daniel Mengden and Chris Bassitt have been better.  Not great, but typical of the A’s, plus the bullpen will have to shoulder most of the load anyway.

Need: Bullpen to figure it out.  Last year Blake Treinen and Lou Trevino were unhittable late in games.  While Liam Hendriks has broken out, Treinen and Trevino have underwhelmed. Throw in Joakim Soria, Yusmerio Petit, and now Diekman, and the ceiling of this group is incredibly high, but only if they’re all at peak level.

Target: Whit Merrifield or Matthew Boyd 

Oakland has a few minor league assets they can play with, like Austin Beck, A.J. Puk, and even Franklin Barreto, who was underwhelmed in limited opportunities in the MLB so far.  Both Merrifield and Boyd are great assets because of affordability—something coveted in Oakland, but also have superstar potential.  Is it possible Oakland makes a third trade with the Royals?  Merrifield immediately slides in at the top of the order and can play second or left, depending on who gets hot late.  Boyd could be the dependable Wild Card starter as well as headline the rotation moving forward.  

Chicago Cubs (55-48, 1 GB NL Central, T-1st NL WC)

Current State: As of right now, the Cubs are a game back of the Cardinals.  Cubs took 8 of 9 out the break, but then lost 4 of their next 5, and here we are now wondering what’s next.  But there are a lot of positives, more so than there were early in the season.  Kris Bryant is having a bounce back year, Yu Darvish doesn’t look like a bust, , Javy is Javy, and on top of that Jason Heyward has had a pretty decent year relative to his early years with the Cubs.  Oh and they also won the Craig Kimbrel sweepstakes and scooped up a top three closer in the MLB. 

Need: To stretch the division league and rest up for the playoffs. Kimbrel was their big move and they traded for Martin Maldonado last week, so the Cubs don’t need a big move. Unlike the five teams ahead of them, the Cubs actually are good on pitching depth, so much so that I don’t know which of their five starters they don’t start in a playoff series (Probably Lester, Hendricks, Hamels, Darvish and move Quintana to the bullpen). 

I say stretch the division lead because the Cubs once again get a bad schedule down the stretch and play 39 games in 42 days to close out the season. That’s basically they situation they were in last year, and because they were in a tight race the whole year, they couldn’t run away with the division and ended up needing to play two playoff games to get in and lost both.  Don’t want that to happen again, so keep winning games so the pressure comes in October and not September. 

Target: 4th outfielder

The Cubs don’t desperately need to make a move; Kimbrel was their big midseason move. However they could add some outfield depth. Albert Almora has been below average as a hitter. With the emergence of Robel Garcia, the Cubs could get away with Jason Heyward in center, Bryant in right, and David Bote at third. But someone like Kole Calhoun, who can hit and play good defense, would fit. 

Eric Sogard has been a name mentioned a lot. I’d also call the Angels about Tommy La Stella. Daniel Descalso has been a bad replacement in the pinch-hit/occasional infielder role.  La Stella’s down for at least another six weeks, but on an expiring contract and a career year, it makes sense to bring him back for one more run.  Ben Zobrist is getting ready to come back from his personal issues, which would be an acquisition where they don’t have to move anyone. 

Washington Nationals (55-48, 5.5 GB NL East, T-1st NL WC)

Current State: After a slow start to the year, the Nationals found their groove and got in play for Wild Card spot.  The top three rotation options when healthy are elite tier, and the lineup has functioned well after losing Bryce Harper. 

Need: Same thing as the past five years: the bullpen. Obviously doesn’t look good in hindsight that they traded Blake Treinen and Felipe Vazquez for Sean Doolittle and Mark Melancon respectability. But Doolittle has become somewhat of a stable option.  They may keep him in the 9th inning role, but they need at least one other dependable option. 

Target: Kirby Yates or Alex Colome

Or both. Colome should definitely be at the top of on Mike Rizzo’s list. He’s the top rental closer option available, so he will also be atop most GM’s lists. I just mentioned Boston, and it’s certainly not limited to those two. Yates is a two year option, and likely costs a top prospect, for instance Carter Kieboom. Do the Nationals part ways with Kieboom? Well he’s blocked for this year, but he may be useful next year if they can’t retain Anthony Rendon. But they then would have an elite closer option. These are the two bullpen options that fit what the Nationals have gone for previously. Colome is a must, Yates depends on if they are their team competes next year. 

Milwaukee Brewers (55-50, 2 GB NL Central, 1 GB NL WC)

Current State: Still in both the division and Wild Card race.  Christian Yelich is having another MVP season, and Mike Moustakas has been very good as well, but the rest of the lineup has had a drop off. While the rotation has been better as Brandon Woodruff and Zach Davies have had good years, the lockdown bullpen from a year ago looks less intimidating as Josh Hader has all of a sudden become hittable—probably due to overuse. However Woodruff is out at least a month and Corey Knebel is on the shelf for the year. 

Need: Pitching reinforcements and players to be better. It’s not rocket science; the Brewers have a good team but for whatever reason haven’t been as good as last year. Once again, the Cubs have a tough stretch to end the season, and the Brewers play Chicago and St. Louis enough where they can catch them. But it’s not like the Brewers need massive upgrades at the trade deadline. They took the Dodgers to seven games last year with pretty much this same roster and added Yasmani Grandal. 

Target: Mike Leake, Tim Beckham, Shawn Kelley, and Roenis Elias. 

Leake should be traded soon, as his value won’t be higher after nearly throwing a perfect game.  He has experience in the NL Central, and as a ground ball pitcher should keep the ball in the yard, an advantage going forward in the regular season at hitter friendly Miller Park.  Beckham can be a utility infielder and be a good pinch-hit option. 

Kelley has been the best reliever for the Rangers, who while not wanting to tear down this year, probably wouldn’t be opposed to getting some value for a veteran reliever.  Same deal with Elias. Both patch up the bullpen. 

Obvious Sellers

These teams are very bad and have been bad through the whole year; for that reason I’m not even putting how far back in their divisions they are. In rebuilding phases, so while each has certain upsides, overall the goal is moving pieces of value to contenders to accumulate talent in the farm system and give more young players opportunities. 

Detroit Tigers (30-69)

Current State: Somehow currently worse than Baltimore, but hopeful. If they hang on to Matthew Boyd, Michael Fulmer gets healthy, and when Casey Mize comes up next year, that’s a solid top of the rotation.  They are a year ahead of the Orioles in terms of asset accumulation, whatever that’s worth.  They did a decent job shedding bigger salaries excluding Miguel Cabrera, but they could move him to a contender and eat a good amount of the salary if he shows promise, which he hasn’t, so that won’t happen this year. Hitting is poor, and still many pieces away from respectability. 

Target: Trade Nicholas Castellanos and Shane Greene, field offers for Matthew Boyd.

Castellanos has become a good player at the plate in his early career, and his time is up in Detroit as an upcoming free agent.  He needs a change of scenery to take the next step of his development, and Detroit likely gives it to him for a prospect or two.  Greene, the Tigers’ lone All-Star, is their best trade asset, and is capable of bringing back a key piece or two for the farm system.  Boyd would definitely bring back a haul, but like I said earlier they could wait and see if the team is any better next year once the rotation stabilizes.  He’s put together two solid seasons including this one, so whether or not Detroit capitalizes on his sky-high trade value is the main subject to watch in the Motor City. 

Baltimore Orioles (34-690

Current State: Really, really bad. At this point they might not even be ready contend by the end of Adley Rutschmann’s contract in Baltimore.  Trey Mancini is the only guy that’s looked like a future building block.  Renato Nuñez has continued his late 2018 success and become a good power threat; he will eclipse the 30-homer plateau and maybe flirt with 40.  They can’t shake the Chris Davis contract, and for lack of better options have played him every day.  John Means has been their only above average option in the rotation. They already traded Andrew Cashner. 

Target: Move Mychal Givens and Jonathan Villar, and Mancini and Nuñez if offer is right. 

It’s almost a given pun intended that a contender trades for the right-handed reliever Givens.  Same with Villar, who built up his value in Baltimore after struggling in Milwaukee last year.  Villar can play all over the field and at the very least be a pinch runner off the bench, so his services will be covered. 

Mancini and Nuñez are the only two players who it’s even conceivable to see them on a potent Orioles roster.  But I don’t think the Orioles are a playoff team in 3 or 4 years, as good and young as the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays are.  The Blue Jays are even farther ahead in the rebuild. This is a full-on operation in Baltimore.  They could get a ton of assets for both of these guys, with good team control and young talent. Mancini hasn’t reached his ceiling, and might on a decent team.  Nuñez might have reached his, but if he can be a consistent 30-homer player he’ll have a solid MLB career. The Orioles need to be thinking long-run. They almost have to go for it when the Yankees and Red Sox windows are declining, as they did with their recent run.  Tough living at the bottom of the AL East. 

Miami Marlins (39-62)

Current State: Disasterous. But they do have three decent young starters in Caleb Smith, Sandy Alcantara, and Jordan Yamamoto.  If J.J. Bleday can be as a professional what he was at Vanderbilt this past year, that’s a future cornerstone. Aside from that not much to get excited for.  Also probably the worst franchise in all of sports when it comes to attendance. 

While Derek Jeter gets a ton of criticism for dumping all the Marlins assets, but we at least have to give him credit for understanding Miami is not a good baseball market.  Fans didn’t turn out regardless, so having a high payroll yields no profits, especially when the team is mediocre at best. 

Target: Miguel Rojas, Curtis Granderson, Sergio Romo, and good value for young starters. 

If a team offers a good haul for one of the three arms, I’d take it.  Miami doesn’t seem to have a set timetable for when they want to be good, and they’re really the only NL team that has no conceivable way of being competitive in the near future. Rojas has had a career year and proven he can be an MLB starter.  With a lack of quality position players available, teams will call about him.  Granderson is a favorable veteran bench bat at this stage of his career, so someone will trade for him like the Dodgers did a year ago.  Romo doesn’t stand out amongst the other top relievers on the market, but he has plenty of postseason experience, and can set up or close games. 

Toronto Blue Jays (39-66)

Current State: A good number of young position players, many of whom are second generation big-leaguers: Vlad Jr., Cavan Biggio, and Bo Bichette is close to getting a call-up. There are holes they can fill by trading current pieces, but Toronto is still relatively far from contending, with the gap between the top three and bottom two in the AL East incredibly large and growing quickly. 

In addition, the pitching, especially in the rotation, has been below average.  Marcus Stroman has been the only consistent option, and with only one more year of team control after this year, he will he moved this trade deadline.  Aaron Sanchez has not been healthy nor effective enough in the last three season, begging the question if his 2016 success was a fluke.  He could be their top pitcher if he could put it together, but right now that seems far fetched. 

Target: Sell Stroman and and Ken Giles for top assets, also look to unload Daniel Hudson, Freddy Galvis, and Eric Sogard. 

Stroman has been the lone bright spot on the Blue Jays’ staff, but the team won’t contend next year either, so they should move him now while his value is high.  Same with Giles, who revived his career coming over from Houston.  I have mentioned the other three guys as trade pieces prior, and all net lower level pieces, but also free up opportunities for young guys in the second half. 

Toronto should probably ask for at least one top pitching prospect for Stroman.  Forrest Whitley would be ideal. At least a few players will need to step up for Toronto to contend in the near future.  They could become a place for veteran pitchers to bounce back, like Texas this year. That might be a start. 

Kansas City Royals (39-66)

Current State: As expected in their rebuild. This is the Royals process; they have a few really bad years while their young players develop, than have a four year window to win. At least that’s how they won a World Series, and they seem content with repeating the process. They’re not as atrocious as the Tigers, yet they’re not close to being relevant.  Whit Merrifield, Hunter Dozier, and Jorge Soler have been the focal points of the offense.  They’ are capable with competing, for instance they did beat the Braves and recently swept the White Sox.  It will be a few years, but the wheels are moving in Kansas City. 

Target: Sell veteran position players and keep giving young guys opportunities.

They already traded Homer Bailey and Jake Diekman.  They will shop Ian Kennedy.  Alex Gordon is probably untradable with his contract.  Billy Hamilton could have some value purely because of his speed, and his departure would give Brett Phillips and Bubba Starling extended looks.  Pitching will be up for audition.  Merrifield is on a great contract and will be asked about. I would consider moving him because his trade value probably can’t be higher with a breakout season and good financial value. I mentioned Oakland as a team that has the assets to make a compelling offer for the versatile South Carolinian. 

Seattle Mariners (44-63)

Current State: In transition, but not in tear down mode.  The Mariners have the longest playoff drought in the MLB, and that won’t be snapped until the next decade.  But they’ve done a good job cutting salary in the past nine months. Getting rid of Robinson Cano’s contract was huge, and they look smart now by dealing Edwin Diaz while his value was high.  They haven’t been given enough credit for offseason moves that picked up Domingo Santana, Omar Narvaez, and J.P. Crawford. After acquiring the expensive services of Jay Bruce and Edwin Encarancion, they shipped out them early season. 

So in theory, Seattle might have more money to pursue rotation upgrades in the winter. Aside from Yusei Kikuchi, the rotation has not been good excluding from Mike Leake’s recent gem that will raise his trade value. 

Target: Mike Leake, Tim Beckham, Roenis Elias

Leake will get traded.  There should be takers for Elias and Beckham, and moving those three should be the priority.  In addition to Encarnacion and Bruce, they dealt Anthony Swarzak to Cleveland, so Seattle is not lacking activity.  Dee Gordon has regressed, so nobody will want his large contract. They may be better off keeping him anyway and hoping he bounces back and shores up his trade value. 

Fringe Teams 

This is where it gets interesting. Most of these teams are leaning one way or the other, but for some reason are not clear cut buyers or sellers. It could be questions of talent or sustainability, contract situations, or a tendency to stand pat.  Moving down the list, it becomes less obvious which direction teams should go.

Cleveland Indians (61-42, 2 GB AL Central, 1st AL WC)

Current Status: How does a team only two games back in the division and 3.5 games ahead in the Wild Card and themselves with questions about buying or selling?  That’s the same question I’m wondering, as the Tribe would seem to be clear contenders.  But by the recent recent rumors around Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, and Brad Hand (especially Bauer,  San Diego?). This is an odd situation. Cleveland behaved more like sellers than buyers in the offseason, strange for a team that threepeated in the division in the offseason, and  definitely needed a few upgrades to get over the top.  They clearly underestimated Minnesota and the moves they made, and seemed to assume they would run away with the Central again.  

That said, their replacement players have performed better than expected. Oscar Mercado has been solid essentially replacing Michael Brantley. Shane Bieber looks like a future ace.  Maybe ether feel they can move veterans like Bauer and remain competitive.  But that’s not a great message from the front office to the locker room. 

The Indians can trade all those guys today and get a ton in return.  They probably fall out of the Wild Card and regress under .500 next season. They then are probably ready to be good again in 2021.  But that’s also when the White Sox are supposed to arrive, and Detroit’s pitching prospects at least suggest they would like to be good in the future.  Plus Francisco Lindor gets close to free agency, and he’s not happy about the team selling out, and he either gets traded or eventually leaves. 

Cleveland definitely should add and not subtract.  Best case scenario if everyone gets healthy in the rotation, they have five quality starters, and they could win the division and get a shot at the Yankees or Astros in a five game series.  Or they probably host a Wild Card game.  Not exactly a position to be selling.  

Target: Positional depth. 

Unless someone makes an offer for Bauer they can’t refuse, they should at least make a smaller move.  A one-year option like Kole Calhoun or Nicholas Castellanos can’t hurt. Jonathan Villar can play all over the field. Tim Beckham can play third if Jose Ramirez doesn’t break out of a bad year-long slump. Any cheap reinforcements to the lineup make sense. 

San Francisco Giants (53-51, 14.5 GB NL West, 2.5 GB NL WC)

Current State: A month ago, the baseball world thought the Giants were dead, and held on to all the cards of the trade deadline with Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith.  That was before the Giants were the hottest team in baseball, and suddenly a Wild Card berth was in play.  Sitting two games above .500 after  winning 12 of 15 out of the break, improving to 17-6 in July, it’s almost inconceivable that they end up selling.  This core was built in winning culture, and some have taken part in all three championships.  After two disappointing seasons with lots of losses, if they have a shot this year, they have to take it.  Plus this is Bruce Bochy’s final season as manager, and with everything he’s done for the franchise, he deserves one final run. 

Target: Noah Syndergaard and Sergio Romo 

So in a matter of months the Giantshave gone from trading their top starter to acquiring another one. The Mets are rumored to be active in efforts to move Syndergaard, and San Francisco would make sense to keep them competitive beyond this year in case Bumgarner doesn’t resign. They might not offer the best package for Syndergaard, but could probably send four quality prospects to the Big Apple. 

Romo is a familiar place that bolsters the bullpen in front of Will Smith. Overall this deadline shows the players they have the organization’s support.  Not selling would be one vote of confidence, but buying makes them feel like contenders. 

Philadelphia Phillies (54-49, 6.5 GB AL East, 1 GB NL WC)

Current State: Not living up to expectations after a big offseason.  After adding Bryce Harper, Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen, and J.T. Realmuto, the Phillies are hanging around in the Wild Card.  Not ideal for a team with expectations to challenge the Braves It’s been a bumpy road however.  McCutchen tore his ACL, Odubel Herrera had some domestic abuse problems and is probably done for a while. Jake Arrieta has been banged up and Aaron Nola took a step back for a rotation that was expected to be a strength.  No position players have really stood out, reflected by Realmuto being the only all-star selection. 

Need: Pitching

The recent moves of the franchise suggest selling is not an option, but I don’t know how many big time moves the Phillies have left.  They have Nick Williams, who raked enough in Triple-A to get a promotion even though he’s blocked.  This isn’t a great option, but the Pirates might be regretting the Chris Archer trade and give him up for Williams and a minor league pitcher.  If they really want to go for it and trade for Trevor Bauer, they’re probably looking at Williams and Scott Kingery at least.  They could also dangle former top pick Mickey Moniak if they’re that desperate. 

But this hasn’t felt like a Phillies year. They’re probably best off trading for a veteran starter like Mike Leake to shore up the rotation.  Unfortunately he’s one of the only good short-term options after the Homer Bailey domino fell.  Maybe Tanner Roark is another possibility.  If the Phillies make the Wild Card game, 2019 can be viewed as a positive step forward.  I wouldn’t risk it all for this year. 

Chicago White Sox (17 GB AL Central, 45-56, 11.5 GB AL WC)

Current State: The fist three bubble teams all should add.  This is the transition of the fringe teams where teams should look more to sell than buy.  11.5 is tough to ask for a team that already has a lot working. The South Siders are on schedule, but lost seven straight out of the break, effectively ending any shot of a Wild Card. But all pieces are coming together in the lineup.  Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson, and Eloy Jimenez have shown promising production, and Nick Madrigal, Luis Robert, and Andrew Vaughn are all still in the system, and all should be up for a 2020 run. James McCann came out of nowhere to become an All-Star after years of average production with Detroit. On top of all that, Lucas Giolito finally lived up to the hype he received as a top Nationals prospect. Michael Kopech should be healthy next year, and the two can form a dynamic 1-2 punch.  However, most of the other rotation options have been bad. As has the bullpen excluding Alex Colome. 

Target: Colome

Trade Colome, as plenty of teams will want him. I mentioned his name at least twice in the buyers.  I would then give every pitcher who has been promising in Triple-A a shot to prove themselves in the big leagues, and see who can stick for next season. 

Pittsburgh Pirates (10 GB NL Central, 9 GB NL WC)

Current State:   You almost have to question the Pirates’ thinking when they traded for Chris Archer. Maybe they thought they could squeeze out his best on the remainder of his team-friendly deal.  But Austin Meadows became an All-Star while all three Pittsburgh outfielders from last year have regressed. The brightest spot has been Josh Bell putting together an excellent season, combing power and average. Kevin Newman and Bryan Reynolds have taken advantage of opportunities.  And Felipe Vazquez is a top five closer and top three trade deadline asset.  There are working elements in Pittsburgh, but they’re not in position to be buyers. 

Pittsburgh is -64 in run differential. The Reds are +35. Yet the two are only separated by a one-game margin, which suggests the Pirates’ record may additionally be subject to the law of averages. 

Target: Stand pat unless offer is right for Vazquez

I would not trade Vazquez. The talent is there in the rotation where if everyone stays healthy, contending next year isn’t unfathomable. There aren’t many other players in Pittsburgh with a ton of trade value.  I don’t think they make a big move this year. 

However, if they were to move Vazquez, they would get more moving him mid-season, and with reliever fluctuation he could be much worse next year.  See Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen.  I do worry also with the high demand of relievers and a lot of tradable options, the Pirates might not get the maximum return for Vazquez. 

Cincinnati Reds (46-55, 9 GB NL Central, 8 GB NL WC)

Current State: Pitching has been really good. Which is odd considering the small ballpark and offensive output last year. But nonetheless the rotation has kept the Reds within sight of the postseason races.  Joey Votto has finally had a regression year.  They’d like to move Scooter Gennett, but his groin ailment cost him the first half of 2019.  Eugenio Suarez has performed well enough to stave off Nick Senzel at the hot corner.  Those three infielders were all All-Stars in 2018, but none were in 2019.  Meanwhile they moved Senzel to center and he’s developing there. Phillip Ervin has raked since his latest promotion, suggesting he may finally stick in the big leagues. 

Target: Jose Iglesias and Tanner Roark

The Reds look ready to be good. Unfortunately for them enough didn’t come together for it to happen this year.  But they shouldn’t play around with too many pieces. Iglesias is one they can.  Signed to a minor-league deal, he’s become the everyday shortstop as the middle infield battled injuries. A good defender, someone could use him as a defensive replacement.  For lack of quality starters on expiring contracts, Roark is a decent option for teams.  He has postseason experience with Washington, and while not having a standout year, he’s an above average option for a contending team. 

New York Mets (48-55, 12.5 GB NL East, 7 GB NL WC)

Current State: Absolute dumpster fire.  It’s amazing Mickey Callaway still has this job, or even still wants it.  There’s enough articles bashing the Mets so I don’t need to.  But Edwin Diaz has not lived up to expectations, and the bullpen has been bad.  That’s essentially of what the season boils down to.  It’s hard to see how a season with Jacob deGrom putting up Cy Young numbers yet again coupled with Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil blossoming into young stars could be a part of a disaster of a season. 

Target: Move Zach Wheeler or Noah Syndergaard

Both are high level pitchers with a few more years left of team control and enough untapped upside. It might serve them well to get out of New York (unless the crosstown Yankees want to make a move).  Wheeler got hurt recently, which diminishes his value, but someone could still trade for him with a respectable offer. Syndergaard has top ten stuff, so he would bring back a great return.  That would be the move for a franchise constantly on teetering buying and selling. 

San Diego Padres (48-55, 19 GB NL West, 7 GB NL WC)

Current State: I feel like every year the Padres make a big splash in the offseason, then drastically fail to meet expectations. This year it was Manny Machado, and even calling up Fernando Tatis Jr. Both make the Friars more exciting to watch, but yet again they’re at the bottom of the NL West. What more can they do?  I can’t remember the Padres finishing above .500 in my lifetime.  They’re the Sacramento Kings of the MLB. 

Target: Cost-controlled pitcher 

These are the rumors, and I agree. I don’t agree with the timing, but I understand pressuring the Indians on Trevor Bauer to make the move immediately.  They could also move Kirby Yates, but it’s the same deal as Felipe Vazquez; they’ll ask a lot, but because there’s so many options, they might not get their ideal trade. Chris Paddack has been the only starter that’s looked like a definitive piece. They could use an experienced option, and with a not-great free agent pitching class, making a move for a cost-controlled starter makes sense, despite not playing like a playoff team this season. 

Bauer is the main name in the rumors, but I’m not sold on Cleveland selling, though they could conceivably trade Bauer and still make the playoffs. After that, fill in the blank for who the Padres target: Mike Minor, Zach Wheeler, Matthew Boyd, Caleb Smith. They definitely have enough in the farm system, plus Wil Myers might be on the move with younger, more productive options surfacing at any position he could play. It’s probably time for a change of scenery. That move could also happen independent of a trade for a starter. 

In a weird way, the Padres could be both buyers and sellers at the deadline. 

Colorado Rockies (49-55, 18.5 GB NL West, 6.5 GB NL WC)

Current State: One of the bigger disappointments of the season.  For as good as the rotation was last year, they have been the exact opposite this year, and the bullpen hasn’t helped either.  With four All-Star hitters: Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story, and David Dahl, it’s a shame to see them at the bottom of the NL West.  Unfortunately while the Giantsgot hot at the right time, the Rockies went the other way.  

This regression does make sense however. Last year almost everything went right. They couldn’t have expected to pitch that well again at Coors Field. 

Target: Dump salary 

Ian Desmond, Daniel Murphy, Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw.  None really have great trade value, but all could conceivably bounce back in a good situation.  The Rockies might have to eat some of the contracts in order to get anything back, specifically Desmond. But the Rockies aren’t a large-market team, and can’t afford bad contracts.  All their core hitters are locked up, except Story, but that problems a few years away. Whatever they can get off the books before the offseason is probably better. 

Arizona Diamondbacks (52-52, 15.5 GB NL West, 3.5 GB NL WC)

Current State: Have to tip the cap to the job Torey Lovullo’s done this year in Arizona.  They traded Goldschmidt, one of the best Diamondbacks of all time, in the offseason, and still find themselves .500 in a good division.  Ketel Marte has come out of nowhere to become an All-Star and be very well could hit 30 homers while hitting .320.  He seamlessly transitions between playing center and second.  He deserves MVP consideration.  Eduardo Escobar is hot right now. They stole him from the Twins last year and then once again in free agency. ($7M per year, 3 years). 

However, this isn’t a World Series team. Robbie Ray is running out of contract, and teams are asking about him. They’ve proven like Tampa Bay, they can make it with less, so they should finish with 80-wins. 

Target: Trade Ray

Robbie Ray strikes out a lot of people, which is why he can fit in anywhere. Arizona could get back at least another solid pitching prospect. It may be a team like San Diego or Anaheim who becomes desperate for rotation assets and as a result gets greedy, and the DBacks can get a good return. 

Texas Rangers (12.5 GB AL West, 5 GB AL WC)

Current State: Having a much better year after two down seasons.  Mike Minor and Lance Lynn have shored up the rotation.  Joey Gallo raised his average and blossomed into an All-Star, but is out for the next month at least. Elvis Andrus, Rougned Odor, and Nomar Mazara have showed better.  And Hunter Pence has been the comeback player of the year, turning a minor league contract into the AL’s starting DH. 

Target: Field a team that can go for it 2020. Whether that involves trading Minor or not depends on what kind of offers they get. But with the new ballpark opening next year, the Rangers will want to be in prime playoff position. Most of the pieces are there. 

Minor would probably net three quality prospects. Someone like the Dodgers or Braves like I mentioned earlier as targets might get overly aggressive, and give up more talent than they otherwise would.  The Dodgers gave Texas Willie Calhoun to rent Yu Darvish for a season.  The Rangers ask for much more for Minor. 

I’ve also mentioned Shawn Kelley as a tradable asset. He’s had a good season and served as the closer quite a bit, but Jose Leclerc has the most potential, and the Rangers want to give him chances to develop into an elite closer.  Kelley is a veteran reliever having a good season. That can be replicated next year, and if management found as many good pieces like Lynn and Minor at lower value, chances are they can do it again next year. In summary Kelley should be traded. 

There is also an outside chance if the Rangers keep their current roster, they win 12 of 15 and get right back in the Wild Card race. In that case you take it for what it is, and settle for arriving a year ahead of schedule. 

Anaheim Angels (54-51, 12 GB AL West, 4.5 GB AL WC)

Current State: The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have arguably the greatest baseball player of all time.  They also have the best player to two-way in the big leagues since Babe Ruth.  Yet every year at this time of year they find themselves in the same exact position: they’re about .500, but way back in the division and distant in the Wild Card. The clarity they have this year is that Mike Trout is extended for basically the rest of his career.  They don’t have to worry about a possible exit in free agency. 

However, the most pressing situation in Anaheim is the aftermath of Tyler Skaggs’s tragic passing.  For a team to lose one of its cogs just like that is impossible to understand from an outside perspective.  Skaggs was also the Angels’ best pitcher.  It’s demoralizing to lose a key contributor on and off the field, and may his soul rest in peace. 

The Angels are probably not a playoff team this year. They came out hot out of they break, but are still a good 4 games back with plenty of contenders ahead of them. And with the Skaggs tragedy, it’s understandable if the Angels need some time to recoup.  

Target: Trade Kole Calhoun and Trade Trevor Cahill and prospects for Robbie Ray. 

Calhoun is a free agent after the year, and the team should clear a path for top prospect Jo Adell to get his feet wet in the big leagues.  Arizona is in a tough spot, and will consider moving Ray while he still has some team control.  Cahill can pitch out of the bullpen or start for Arizona, and at the very least give them innings for the remainder of the season, and ideally Arizona gets a both a pitcher and an outfielder from the Angels. 

Going into next season, the Angels can run out Ray, Shoehi Ohtani, Andrew Heaney, and Griffin Canning.  That’s as good of a rotation as they’ve had with Trout. Pitching has been the consistent weakness in the Trout era, and if this group stays healthy (not at all a given with the Angels history), Trout can maybe get his first postseason win. 

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