Triple Option

By Michael Maynard

Published 6/27/19 @ 4:51 PM CT

The University of Connecticut voted yesterday to return to athletic competition in the Big East Conference.  The Huskies joined the American Athletic Conference when the old Big East dissolved earlier in the decade.  UConn will return to Big East participation in the 2020-21 season in all sports besides football, which UConn is expected to become Independent but that is not official yet.

UConn was one of the teams that got the short end of the stick when the Big East broke up. West Virginia moved over to the Big 12, Pitt, Syracuse, and later Louisville moved to the ACC. The seven Catholic, non-football programs kept the Big East title and added Butler, Creighton, and Xavier to what we now know as the Big East.  UConn was left with Cincinnati, USF, and at the time Louisville and Rutgers, and the five and Temple became the foundation of the American Athletic Conference, essentially a conference scrapped together after the fallout of the Big East.  Shortly after, Rutgers left for the Big Ten, and Louisville replaced Maryland in the ACC.

After Louisville and Rutgers exited the AAC, the conference continued to add C-USA powerhouses to compete with the four former Big East schools.  Some of those, specifically Houston, UCF, and Memphis have become formidable contenders, but it appeared UConn was still frustrated with being a loser in the Big East musical chairs, and the AAC wasn’t cutting it.

Basketball is the clear motivator for the move, but the move raises questions because the AAC to Big East is a lateral move, as both are second-tier leagues still relatively new in their current state.  Both produced only 4 tournament teams a year ago, although the Big East has had up to 7 of its 10 previously.  As it previously stood, the AAC had more prospects.  Houston is becoming a recurring national contender under Kelvin Sampson.  Cincinnati and Temple both have first year head coaches, but both have the tradition and recent success to suggest they will consistently be competitive.  Penny Hardaway is in the process of bringing Memphis back to relevance, or at the very least bringing high-profile recruits into the league.  Wichita State recently entered into the league, and is another high-quality program.  UCF and Tulsa both have both made the tournament since joining the conference.  Add in Dan Hurley rebuilding UConn, and there was a legitimate chance to have at least nine quality programs in the near future.

But the Big East brings in the idea of tradition, maybe?  We can get some old rivalries rekindled with Villanova, Georgetown, etc. and even the rematch with Butler from the pathetic 2011 title game.  It make geographical sense, which the American lacks entirely. However, this is hardly the old Big East.  The era of “no blood no foul” transitioned into a modern period of “every contact is a foul,” which makes Big East games take more than two hours and very slow to watch.  The Big East conference with Fox Sports might be a slight TV upgrade from the AAC, which had an ESPN agreement but played most of its games on the sub-networks of ESPNNews and ESPNU.  Now they’ll play primarily on FS1 and occasionally on FOX for showcase games.

For what it’s worth, the American has also been a better baseball conference, but UConn was one of the better programs, so their loss hurts the conference name slightly.  UConn in Big East baseball brings the league up significantly, adding to the usual contenders St. John’s and Xavier as well as up-and-coming  Creighton and Seton Hall.  And UConn Women’s Basketball will dominate in any conference, so while the Big East probably has more competition, UConn doesn’t gain nor lose much.

It doesn’t help that UConn football has been one of the worst FBS teams in the past decade.  Ever since back to back 8-5 seasons in 2009 and 2010, which featured a double overtime win at Notre Dame and a Fiesta Bowl appearance, UConn football is 28-69 (. 289), including an overall record of 18-55 and conference record of 11-37 since joining the AAC. Basketball was the reason UConn was in the AAC, and barring an unexpected breakout 2019 season, UConn’s football program isn’t much of an asset for the AAC, meaning they won’t keep them just for football.  So it’s likely UConn football becomes a D1 independent.  They theoretically could join another Group of 5 conference, but the other three eastern ones all have even numbers for all spots, so it’s unlikely they take UConn solely for football, unless someone leaves for the AAC vacancy.  B

Because now the AAC and Big East both have 11 teams, this is hardly the last move.  There will definitely be a ripple effect, whether it’s teams leaving the AAC or joining.  I bring up both because the easiest scenario is they fill the UConn spot to make 12, but UConn was a big part of the early AAC identity, and with them gone, it’s possible other top programs leave as well.  The Big 12 notably only has ten, and while they’ve been content to keep their existing ten, it’s possible an opportunity to expand to their name arises.  I think it’s a matter of years before Houston is in the Big 12.  There are three marketable sports, it geographically makes sense, and Jordan affiliation.  In addition, they lured Dana Holgorsen to step down from a decent Power 5 job to take the Houston gig.  While Houston makes sense with his Texas background and they paid him a lot of money, there could be a long-term element where Houston would look to become a power-5 program.

After that, it could be as simple as Cincinnati or Memphis join the Big 12, UCF joins the ACC, which does away with their divisions that already don’t make any sense, and the American Athletic conference has lost all of its marketable programs.  So I created three scenarios that would be the best and most likely next steps for conference realignment so the American tries to limit any damage. UConn’s exit puts them on the clock, otherwise they may become a novelty.

VCU to AAC, Dayton to Big East, football independent to AAC 

This has its issues but is probably the most likely.  The AAC probably doesn’t love the idea of doing another football/everything else move like it did with Wichita State and Navy. But it’s possible nobody else wants to move to the AAC full time so in this case, they do what they need to do.

VCU has been the most consistent A10 team, and the AAC would be an upgrade.  Their mindset works the same as Wichita’s did: Better conference translates to more leverage on the bubble, and probably a higher seed as a lock at-large.  Wichita State moved to the American and was immediately one of the best two teams, and had a decent but not great year, but ended up being a 4-seed.  Of course they then lost to Marshall, but had they stayed in the Missouri Valley, they don’t play a great strength of schedule, and considering Loyola dominated the conference without Wichita State, they might not even win the conference, or become a fringe at-large team.  Point is the move up benefits VCU in the long run.

Dayton moving to the Big East evens everything out.  There become 12 teams in the AAC, Big East, and A10.  Dayton is above average in basketball and probably makes the tournament at least every third year, plus they have a baseball team.  The Big East adds another Catholic, Midwest school, so they fit the conference persona.  Before the UConn addition, I thought the Big East should have moved to add Dayton and Loyola to really double down on the conference stereotype.

Football becomes the issue, as there are not many FBS independents.  UMass is not worth it, plus they would want the basketball addition too.  In this case scrap Dayton to the Big East.  BYU and Air Force are even further geographically off.  That leaves Army as the best team to add, and their membership functions exactly he same as Navy.  However, this complicates the Army-Navy rivalry.  This matchup becomes a conference game, unless they want to do what Wake Forest and North Carolina are doing this year, which is a future article in its own.  They could move the game to Rivalry Week and make it the sole college game on Thanksgiving, but it likely gets shadowed by the NFL.  If I was putting money on the outcome of the AAC realignment, the former solution with an Army-Navy conference non-conference game the week after would be the favorite, but I don’t love the idea of putting Army and Navy in the same conference.  There’s also the possibility they meet back to back weeks if they both make the conference championship, so one game means everything and another means nothing.  So there should be a clause in the realignment deal where if Army and Navy play for the conference title, they cancel the AAC championship and let the winner of Army-Navy the week after in Philadelphia call themselves AAC champions.  I’m actually talking myself into this.  After all it would make sense to have the two prominent military football programs in a conference that calls itself the American conference.

C-USA or MAC team joins AAC full time

Say the AAC wants a more concrete solution and wants to add a full-time member. In this case, in some way shape or form, a new FBS team would likely have to emerge to fix an disproportionate  conference number.  The only MAC team I could see moving is Buffalo because it’s the only geographic outlier in the MAC currently, and with good football and basketball programs, the AAC helps them retain consistent relevance. But in this case, the MAC probably doesn’t want UConn football, so they should look to add a Midwest team permanently.  This could mean bumping North Dakota State or Illinois State up to FBS and they become full-time MAC.  Conference USA would work the same way.  If someone left, they’d either need someone to leave/disband their football program or move up a southern FCS team, maybe Wofford, James Madison, or Murray State.  I don’t love this option and it doesn’t make a ton of sense, but I have to bring it up with the possible ripple effects from conference realignment.  The C-USA could also bring in the team I just listed below if one of their schools bolts for the AAC, but that school may have bigger aspirations.

Liberty moves to AAC full time

This is my sleeper option that I think actually makes the most sense.  Considering all the moving parts of Liberty’s athletic program, you can’t have a much better year than the Flames just did.  Moving from FCS to FBS independent, Liberty went 6-6, and while there are moral question marks, they hired a coach with name recognition in Hugh Freeze.  Liberty then proceeded to win the A-Sun in both basketball and baseball and then won a game in each of the national tournaments, both against SEC schools.  They might not have more momentum than they do now, and they should capitalize.

This would be good for the AAC because it has a relatively smooth transition with an Independent joining the conference.  In other sports, Liberty just moved from the Big South to the A-Sun, so there shouldn’t be many hard feelings.  Besides the old A-Sun teams probably weren’t thrilled with Liberty stealing all their championships in their first year in the league.  This is what I think should happen.  I imagine Liberty didn’t move up to FBS play with the idea of staying Independent forever, and they may not get a better opportunity to join a good conference than they have now.  In addition, having a school named Liberty in a conference named American is too appealing to pass up.

All this realignment talk got me thinking of how the current conferences make zero sense traditionally and geographically, and I figured out a way (that the NCAA would never do) to basically fix the current system.  My plan will be posted in the next few days.  With Vanderbilt winning the College World Series and concluding the College Baseball season, College Football is now on the clock, so I’ll have more Triple Option coverage as the season approaches.

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