Triple Option

May 27, 2019; 9:48 PM CT

By Michael Maynard

Happy Memorial Day to all the Triple Option readers. I took some time off blogging with baseball season and I guess no storylines prompted me to come out of retirement until now, so I have a mega article covering the three big sporting events taking place at the break of Summer.

NBA Finals

I think another factor to my break deals with the fact the NBA wasn’t really exciting to this point. Last year had a multitude of stories: LeBron carrying the Cavs and his incoming free agency, Terry Rozier vs. Drew (Eric) Bledsoe, the Kawhi “injury” saga, Meek Mill being released from prison and Joel Embiid mask drama, and also the Rockets almost beat the Warriors maybe. That was when Chris Paul got injured while they were up 3-2 and then the Warriors came back.

Dare I say, this year has not had as many interesting stories to write about. The main headlines this year have been Kawhi is really good, KD is really good but then he got hurt and the Warriors swept Portland without him, Dame hit a buzzer beater from the parking lot to eliminate the Thunder and the Blazers also won a Quadruple Overtime game, the Warriors blew another 31 lead but that series was never really close, and Kyrie didn’t show up and neither did the Rockets. That was basically it. Until last week.

For everything the 2019 NBA playoffs lacked, the Eastern Conference Finals made up for. The Bucks won the first two games, and you can look at the Freezing Cold Takes tweets to see that everyone declared the series over, and I’ll admit I thought it was too. But the advantage of not being on social media 24/7 with every take I have helped me there. Game 3 was the turning point. As in any 2-0 series, the difference between 2-1 and 3-0 in the NBA is huge considering no team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit. That game went to double overtime, and the Bucks easily could have won and probably carry that momentum to win in 4 or 5. But Toronto picked up a win, which turned the tide. After a Game 4 win to even the series, they stole a win in Milwaukee, which set up Game 6 as their clincher. Game 6 was the peak of Toronto basketball history. The fans in the familiarly known “Jurassic Park” who file outside whatever that stadiums named now for every Leafs and Raptors playoff game finally saw a victory and a chance to compete for a championship. Also we get our necessary rapper involvement for the league with Drake stealing the headlines.

The biggest story of The Finals is the health of Kevin Durant and DeMarcus Cousins. Yes the Warriors might be better without both of them and probably beat Toronto if neither play. If the Warriors sweep Toronto without their best player, that doesn’t look great for Durant. If they were to win without him, which they won’t because he’s going to play for this exact reason, then it furthers the narrative his arrival in Golden State was unnecessary. He has two finals MVPs in two years with Golden State, yet the reality is that they let him leave in the offseason and are still the favorite. As for Boogie Cousins, he has two big injuries in two seasons, so does a team want to commit to him long-term? A nice Finals performance would help, but is he healthy enough to play. We’ve been saying since June if Golden State plays their five guys, nobody’s beating them, and that holds true.

I’m scared for Toronto because they feel happy to be here. The Raptors and the city of Toronto acted like the ECFs were the pinnacle, which in fairness was their challenge. The Maple Leafs have been a joke and still can’t get out of the first round. The Raptors contended in the East for years, time and time to be denied by LeBron. So they deserve the credit. The fired the NBA Coach of the year and traded their franchise centerpiece in DeMar DeRozan for Kawhi, knowing he would probably leave for Los Angeles after the season. All of this just for a chance to contend with Boston, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee for a shot to probably get beat by the Warriors. They then played the series of their life, and doing so in comeback fashion. I’m not sure they can keep it up for another series. If the Raptors newly minted death lineup of Lowry, Van Vleet, Kawhi, Siakam, and Gasol plays at the level they did in Games 3-6, they have a shot. Norman Powell and Serge Ibaka give them some depth as well, and Danny Green disappeared in the Milwaukee season with Fred Van Vleet’s hot shooting run. The crazy stat I saw with Van Vleet is he’s shooting something insane like 82% from three since the birth of his son. I’d still expect Green to play a role, as he and Ibaka all have Finals experience, in addition to the former Finals MVP in Leonard.

I’ll do plenty of offseason NBA Articles because that’s when the real action happens, but this whole season has sleepwalked to the Finals. It’s the season you simulate in 2K to get to the good free agent class. 29 NBA teams seem accepting of the fact they’re not beating the Warriors, and the Warriors seem tired of winning so easily. The one thing that makes this interesting is that Toronto has home-court advantage. So if Toronto takes Game 1, then we may have a series.

Stanley Cup

While I’ve been down on the NBA playoffs, the Stanley Cup playoffs have been nothing short of thrilling, especially as my team the St. Louis Blues have made it to the finals. In a weird franchise history, the Blues have returned to the Stanley Cup for the first time in 49 years, which was also a loss to Boston. The Blues made the Stanley Cup in each of the franchise’s first three years but were swept all three times, and while making the playoffs the majority of the time over the nearly half-century drought, never returned to a cup. St. Louis has certainly become a hockey city and then fans are more than ready for a return to the Cup.

The story of this St. Louis squad is pretty well known but I’ll reiterate it quickly. After a slow start, the team fired head coach Mike Yeo and promoted Craig Berube. At the start of the new year, the Blues sat at the bottom of the NHL standings, with Cup odds bottomed out at 300-1. Then began an eleven game winning streak in February sparked by the change to Jordan Binnington at goaltender. The Blues were 15-18-4 for 34 points in 2018, and to finished the regular season 45-28-9 with 99 points. So in 2019 including playoffs, the Blues are 42-16-5.

The Bruins storyline is much less significant after the Celtics faded out of the playoffs, throwing out the potential for the Boston Sweep. The Bruins were the second best regular season team but also lost their division by 21 points to the Lightning. So the storyline is a team fighting for their first Stanley Cup vs. a team fighting for the city’s first championship since February. This series is shaping up to be a wild finish to the NHL season. I may or may not have frequent articles during the series but I’ll probably be more active on Twitter.

I do love how the NHL has the capability of some parity, where a team can go from last place mid season to the championship game, in comparison to the NBA which was determined before the season. Too bad the Bulls couldn’t have made a similar resurgence and instead sat all their good players for two consecutive seventh overall picks.

Game 1 tonight at 7 PM CT on NBC. Let’s Go.

College Baseball Bracketology

My final note deals with perhaps the most entertaining collegiate sporting event that doesn’t get as much national attention as it should. I may be biased but postseason college baseball is as exciting as it gets. With that said, my following of college baseball is basically how most people follow college basketball: pay no attention until the last weekend then go all out for the tournament.

The Selection Show takes place today at 11 AM CT on ESPNU and regional play starts Thursday. Each regional follows a double-elimination format with the winner advancing to a best of 3 super regional to go to the College World Series in Omaha. Like college basketball, conference championships determine about half the selections. There are 29 conference tournaments for 31 conferences (Pac 12 and Big West determine auto-bid from regular season winner) opposed to 32 for basketball, as the Big Sky does not have a baseball conference.

The 31 teams automatically qualifying are as follows: Stony Brook (AmEast), Cincinnati (AAC), Fordham (A10), North Carolina (ACC), Liberty (ASun), Oklahoma State (Big 12), Creighton (Big East), Campbell (Big South), Ohio State (B1G), UCSB (Big West), UNC Wilmington (CAA), Southern Miss (C-USA), UIC (Horizon), Harvard (Ivy), Quinnipiac (MAAC), Central Michigan (MAC), Florida A&M (MEAC), Indiana State (MVC), Fresno State (MWC), CCSU (NEC), Jacksonville State (OVC), UCLA (Pac 12), Army (Patriot), Vanderbilt (SEC), Mercer (SoCon), McNeese State (Southland), Southern U (SWAC), Omaha (Summit), Coastal Carolina (Sun Belt), Sacramento State (WAC), Loyola Marymount (WCC).

In addition, yesterday the NCAA revealed the 16 regional host sites, 12 of which come from non conference champions. The 16 host sites are Atlanta, Athens, Baton Rouge, Chapel Hill, Corvallis, Fayetteville, Greenville, Los Angeles, Louisville, Lubbock, Morgantown, Nashville, Oxford, Stanford, Starkville, Stillwater. So in addition to UCLA, Vanderbilt, North Carolina, and Oklahoma State–all conference champions who are hosting, 12 other teams are already in, though there was never doubt they would be in anyway. Those 12 teams are: Arkansas, East Carolina, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Oregon State, Stanford, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, and West Virginia.

So 43/64 are already revealed, leaving 21 at-large spots. Of those 21, 16 are consensus locks to make the field based on their resume. Unlike college basketball, which has the NET, KenPom, and various other ranking systems, college baseball really only uses the RPI, although like basketball how much the ranking system plays into selection varies. Strength of schedule and strength of conference also play a role, but also like college basketball those can’t really be quantified in totality. Those 16 teams are: Arizona State, Auburn, Baylor, California, Dallas Baptist, FAU, Illinois, Illinois State, Indiana, Miami (FL), Michigan, Nebraska, NC State, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and UConn. All of these teams fall somewhere on the 2-3 line.

So that leaves 5 spots to fill on the bubble. I’ve narrowed it down to 14 teams that have some case to make it in the field: Arizona, BYU, Clemson, Duke, Florida, Florida State, Houston, Missouri, Oklahoma, TCU, Texas State, UC Irvine, UCF, and Virginia.

I don’t think this was as close as the basketball bubble was, but there is some definite uncertainty open to interpretation. I have Florida and Florida State in on royalty bids. Florida went to Omaha each of the last two seasons, winning in 2017. They also swept Missouri late in the season, so while Missouri has favorable RPI and may get the SEC bump, I have Florida in over Missouri head to head. For Florida State, I can’t see them being omitted in Mike Martin’s 40th and final season at FSU. FSU has never not made the tournament under Martin, and I think that should favor the Seminoles sneaking in. Plus they blew out NC State in ACC tournament play, which should be enough.

I had Southern Miss as one of the last teams in prior to the Golden Eagles winning the C-USA crown, but now there is no doubt, which takes away a potential bubble spot. Ohio State and Cincinnati were the two bid stealers that probably took away spots from Houston and fill in the blank. For me the AAC was probably a 3-bid league had UConn won, and the debate would have been UCF vs. Houston. Neither showed especially well in the AAC tournament, so I have them both out. Oklahoma went two and out in the Big 12 tournament, which took away a shot at an at-large. On the other hand, TCU took Oklahoma State to extras in the game to go to the conference championship, essentially playing their way onto the bubble. I still think the Frogs get left at home for a second consecutive season. The running theme with Arizona is that they got hot late, but against the cellar of the Pac 12, which isn’t very convincing.

So that leaves six teams for three spots. Virginia lost their two ACC tournament games against UNC and Miami, either would have been a quality win. Clemson edges out Duke slightly in the RPI, and a weekend win over Louisville additionally factors in. The last two spots come down to smaller conference bids. Last year the Sun Belt got Troy in the field in addition to Coastal Carolina, and I think this year goes a similar direction in showing respect for an underrated league, where they also get regular season champs Texas State. UC Irvine gets the final bid over BYU. This is probably my most controversial pick. The Big West took a hit by not getting UCSB, who finished with single-digit losses, as a host, which may signal the Big West not getting much respect and therefore the Anteaters being left out.

So in summary, my last five in are 60. Florida, 61. Clemson, 62. Florida State, 63. Texas State, 64. UC Irvine. The first 5 out are Missouri, Houston, BYU, Duke, and TCU.

Here I have laid out the field of 64 and each of the 16 regionals. I did this in a similar format as d1baseball.com which is the standard for college basketball Bracketology. *Denotes conference champions.

LOS ANGELES

1. #1 UCLA*

4. Florida A&M*

3. UC Irvine

2. Fresno State*

OXFORD

1. Ole Miss

4. Southern U*

3. Cincinnati*

2. NC State

LOUISVILLE

1. #8 Louisville

4. Central Michigan*

3. Michigan

2. Indiana State*

LUBBOCK

1. Texas Tech

4. Stony Brook*

3. Texas State

2. Arizona State

ATHENS

1. #4 Georgia

4. Mercer*

3. Liberty*

2. Miami (FL)

CHAPEL HILL

1. North Carolina

4. UIC*

3. Campbell*

2. California

FAYETTEVILLE

1. #5 Arkansas

4. CCSU*

3. Dallas Baptist

2. Nebraska

CORVALLIS

1. Oregon State

4. Harvard*

3. Ohio State*

2. Auburn

NASHVILLE

1. #2 Vanderbilt*

4. Quinnipiac*

3. Florida State

2. UConn

MORGANTOWN

1. West Virginia

4. Army*

3. Florida

2. Illinois

STILLWATER

1. #7 Oklahoma State*

4. Omaha*

3. Illinois State

2. Creighton*

GREENVILLE

1. East Carolina

4. UNC Wilmington*

3. Coastal Carolina*

2. Texas A&M

STARKVILLE

1. #3 Mississippi State

4. Fordham*

3. Southern Miss*

2. Indiana

BATON ROUGE

1. LSU

4. McNeese State*

3. Clemson

2. Baylor

ATLANTA

1. #6 Georgia Tech

4. Jacksonville State*

3. FAU

2. Tennessee

STANFORD

1. Stanford

4. Sacramento State*

3. Loyola Marymount*

2. UCSB*

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