Triple Option

By Michael Maynard

Published March 13, 2019 @5:55 PM ET. Follow @big_mike_146 for bracket projections and additional TO content

For this edition of Bubble Watch, I have merely divided between locks and non-locks. For all the bubble teams I have explanations of what they need to do in their conference tournament to secure a spot in the dance. The first sentence fragment in each contains this piece of intel.

11 teams listed below have punched their ticket to the dance. Of those 11 only 2 (Wofford and Iona) won their conference regular season, which means at least 9 teams already are going to the NIT. So 57 unknown spots. 21 are auto-bids up for grabs, 14 in projected 1-bid leagues, and 3 of those one-bid leagues (Buffalo, VCU, Washington) are locks. Totaling up the additional locks I declare below, there are 30. That means there are 13 spots to be filled. I discuss 31 teams vying for those spots, though some are not very close.

As of now, the 13 teams in are: Syracuse, Oklahoma, Seton Hall, Florida, TCU, Minnesota, St. John’s, Utah State, Temple, NC State, Indiana, Belmont, Texas

So on the outside, in decreasing order of present likeliness: Ohio State, Alabama, Arizona State, Georgetown, Creighton, Clemson, Xavier, Arkansas, Toledo, Dayton,…

Current Auto-Bids (11): Murray State, Gardner-Webb, Bradley, Liberty, Wofford, Iona, Fairleigh Dickinson, Northern Kentucky, Northeastern, St. Mary’s, North Dakota State

B1G

LOCKS (6): Michigan State, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland, Iowa

Iowa has been terrible down the stretch, but still did enough early where they will still make the tournament, though a significantly lower seed than they expected a month ago.

BUBBLE (5)

Minnesota: Win and lock. A loss to Penn State probably doesn’t drop the Gophers out of the field of 68, but a win would all but assure an at-large spot.

Ohio State/Indiana: Winner assured spot in Dayton. This is the 8-9 matchup in the Big Ten, so I’ll make it simple and say the eighth team to make the tournament. If either advance beyond they’ll become a bye. Have Indiana projected to win in my latest mock.

Nebraska/Penn State: Advance and lose to championship game and be in consideration. Both long shots. Penn State has a losing record (14-17) but a run in the tournament with victories of Minnesota, Purdue, and potentially Michigan would at least get them talked about in the selection room with a high NET ranking of 49 and 3 marquee wins of Virginia Tech, Maryland, and Michigan. Nebraska finished 13th in the Big Ten, but a four game run might make the committee relook at a team that fell off mid season.

ACC

LOCKS (6): Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Louisville

Three 1-seed potential very much in play. Duke in most danger, need Zion to come back.

BUBBLE (3)

Syracuse: Probably in, but for the last three years the committee has went against the bracketology consensus as for what to do with Syracuse. 2016 and 2018 they were projected out and got in, 2017 they were projected in and were left out. I’m convinced the committee does this just so nerds like me can’t predict the field of 68 and claim I could do their job for them. So while they should be in, Syracuse is not a lock. As for seeding, they are probably a 9 or 10 today, if they win their first round matchup with BC or Pitt, that sets the stage for a matchup with Duke. A win there would but put the Orange at least on the 8 line.

NC State/Clemson: I had this as a situation identical to Ohio State and Indiana with the winner moving to the First Four and the loser missing out. I stand by that even after a hectic finish. Clemson was unconscious in the first half with 42 points, but couldn’t even muster 20 the second half, and blew a 16 point halftime lead. While they may have been fleeced out of a win with a controversial foul with 2.6 seconds to play, Clemson still had its opportunities, and unfortunate for them it will probably cost them. So NC State is probably in, but they did still score 24 points in a game this year.

SEC

LOCKS (6): Kentucky, LSU, Tennessee, Mississippi State, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss

Kentucky or Tennessee winning the tournament probably vaults the winner to a 1-seed, especially if that win comes over the other one. LSU is fairly locked into a 3-seed, but the Will Wade drama is concerning for this teams playoff hopes.

BUBBLE:

Florida: Win and lock. My stance on Florida has been made clear throughout the regular season: I believe they are one of the best 68 teams but haven’t necessarily shown it. Barring chaos, I will still put them in with a loss to Arkansas, but a win secured a bid.

Alabama: Need to beat Ole Miss. Alabama clings to a January victory over Kentucky as the primary characteristic keeping them in bid contention. But the Tide don’t have a great resume aside from that, and a first round SEC loss makes them overlookable in the eyes of the committee.

Arkansas: Advance to championship, and have a shot. For Arkansas, this would include wins against Florida, LSU, and potentially Auburn or South Carolina. That’s a fairly easy path in that they don’t have to play Kentucky or LSU until the end. A competitive game vs whoever comes out of the bottom part of the bracket makes them at least in consideration.

South Carolina: Win SEC, ie no bubble shot. This is a weird situation. South Carolina went 11-7 in SEC play, but overall is around .500. They also got the 4-seed and double bye in a league that will send at least seven teams in the tournament. Take away the overall record and they would seem like an easy selection. Auburn and LSU would put them close, but probably not over the top. Unless Florida loses early, and then maybe South Carolina has a case to make it over Florida.

Big 12

LOCK (5): Texas Tech, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Baylor

Iowa State and Baylor are locks more in that a loss probably doesn’t take them out of the tournament. Despite the fact Iowa State is terrible right now and I still know nothing about Baylor. They play in the 4-5 matchup, so it could be winner gets 6 and loser gets 7.

BUBBLE:

Oklahoma/TCU: Despite both’s below average conference records, both are probably safe. Oklahoma more so because they beat Wofford and Florida out of conference and just ended The Streak, and also swept TCU so they are more safe than the Frogs. TCU has been wildly inconsistent, but just beat Texas in Austin, making them a lot safer. Both draw matchups against dumpster Big 12 teams West Virginia and Oklahoma State, and a loss would hurt their candidacy.

Texas: Need to beat Kansas to feel safe. Texas went .500 in conference, but a first round loss would put Texas at 16-16 overall. Even with non-conference wins against Purdue and North Carolina, a .500 team getting an at-large bid would be unprecedented. For now I have them in the other play-in game vs. Belmont.

Big East

LOCKS (2): Villanova, Marquette

Two weeks ago Marquette was a game up on Nova and we were talking about an outright Big East title. Four straight losses later, Villanova took the title outright. Marquette now is a 5 or 6 seed, as is Nova really.

BUBBLE

Seton Hall: Win vs Georgetown for insurance. I’ve said all year the non-conference wins of Kentucky and Maryland can be used as trump cards for the Pirates on Selection Sunday. The final home stand sweep of Marquette and Villanova helped immensely, and Seton Hall is virtually a lock. I’ll put it this way: Seton Hall is a 10-seed right now. For every conference tournament win I’ll move them up a seed.

St. John’s: Don’t lose to DePaul. I’m tempted to say anyone who loses three times in a season should be left out, but St. John’s has a sweep of Marquette and a home split with Villanova that make them the fourth best team in the Big East, I think? Again like Florida they should be better than their record, so does the committee recognize their potential or penalize them for inconsistency? I think the former, but a first round loss in the Big East really puts a dent in their tournament aspirations.

Georgetown/Creighton/Xavier: That order is my power rankings of the next trio of Big East teams. Georgetown might be able to snag an at-large with Seton Hall and Marquette wins. The other two might have a shot, but would probably have to win the title.

What the hell, Butler/Providence/DePaul. Everyone in the Big East is above .500 overall, and because everyone sucks this really is anyone’s league. I would not be the least bit surprised to see one of these three come out of the Big East.

American

LOCKS (3): Houston, Cincinnati, UCF

BUBBLE:

Temple: Probably In, but don’t lay an egg in the American tournament. The UCF win likely secured Fran Dunphy and his squad a farewell at-large, but a first round loss would endanger the Owls, as would a shrinking bubble. Currently the last bye, the chaos of championship week could take away a few at large spots. The first example comes tonight on the off chance St. Mary’s wins the WCC. Wofford winning the SoCon was huge for bubble teams.

Everyone Else:

LOCKS (5): Gonzaga, Nevada, Buffalo, VCU, Washington

Washington is in, but if they lose their first round game they might fall to a play-in because the Pac 12 is terrible

BUBBLE:

Arizona State: Win at least two games, but won’t be safe anyway. ASU is position with the weakness if the Pac 12 where none of their wins really mean anything, while losses can hurt. They beat Kansas at home, but so did West Virginia. They need a good showing in Vegas to push into the 68

Oregon/Colorado: These are my two dark horse Pac 12 champs, but need to win the whole thing to get in.

Utah State: Make it to MWC title. I don’t think Utah State needs to beat Nevada again, though it would help their seeding. But an early upset makes them prone to the judgment of the committee.

A10/MAC: Bid stealing potential here, maybe from teams like Toledo or Dayton. Neither alone have case to make tournament as bubble team.

Belmont: Stars align. I’m relatively impressed with Belmont, but they are on thin ice. They need everyone else to go according to plan and the bubble to remain the same. St. Mary’s already took a huge blow to their chances, but for now the Bruins survive. This includes: Nevada vs Utah State in MWC, or Nevada beats anyone but Utah State , meaning USU was upset and possibly drops out. Buffalo and VCU win conferences, Texas loses to Kansas, ASU loses early, Seton Hall beats Georgetown and DePaul beats St. John’s, but one of the three Big East powers win the conference. All that happens, I like Belmont’s chances.