Triple Option

Feb. 25, 2019 @1:15 PM

By Michael Maynard

For this week of bracketology, I did a different type of ranking than I’ve been doing. These are based on how good each team is right now, so it takes into account streaks, injuries, and any other influential factors. The way I assigned ranks is based on who I believe would win on a neutral court today. This type of philosophy helps to have a situational understanding of which teams are better or worse than their seed.

I’ve used the idea of the “Power 36” from Andy Katz, but I use it to rank at-large berths. This post follows is somewhat similar to what he does in his “Power 36,” which is rank the best 36 teams at that particular point in time. Combine that with Joe Lunardi’s seed list tweets, and here we have a unique hybrid I call the “Tournament Power Rankings.”

1. Gonzaga. The Zags continue rolling through the MWC and have moved up to my #2 overall seed. Killie Tillie is now likely out for the season, but they beat Duke without him and Rui Hachimura and Brandon Clarke is one of the best frontcourt combos independent of Tillie. The concern with Gonzaga is that no one else in their conference is a tournament team, and aside from Duke, their other three notable games are losses to Tennessee and North Carolina and a two point win at home vs. Washington. But they have won 18 in a row, which means something.
2. Duke. Zion’s health will ultimately determine how vulnerable the Blue Devils will be, but they’re still a title contender without him. Syracuse win proved that. Would expect to see Zion in tournament.
3. Virginia. Have dominated everyone except Duke. Wahoos better hope they don’t play them in the tournament.
4. Kentucky. Has a case to be the best team in the nation right now. Loss to LSU can be overlooked because they destroyed Tennessee. Need to sweep the Vols in Knoxville to have a 1-seed potential. Transitive property may keep them under Duke, but the Champions Classic rematch would look much different in March
5. North Carolina. Inconsistent, but riding high with consecutive blowout wins vs. Duke and Florida State.
6. Texas Tech. Still in play for at least a share of Big 12 title, have emerged from mid-season lapse convincingly and look like a Final Four team.
7. Marquette. Sweep by St. John’s only dark marks of recent play. Can run away with a Big East title and secure top four seed with win at reeling Nova Wednesday.
8. LSU. Tied for SEC lead. Relatively easy schedule, but a payback win at the Swamp would go a long way in getting a top four seed.
9. Michigan State. Established themselves as the Big Ten front runner with Sunday’s win in Ann Arbor.
10. Houston. Have best record in D1, LSU non-conf win looks real good now. Need to complete sweep of Cincinnati and some help for 2-seed consideration.
11. Michigan. Can still become a factor in Big Ten with road win in East Lansing, but lost control of top spot for now.
12. Purdue. Coin flip with LSU final 3-seed, location make Purdue a favorable 4. Can still win Big Ten outright if Michigan beats Michigan State.
13. Tennessee. In a bit of a slump as schedule has tightened. Get a chance to avenge Kentucky loss, 1-seed still in play.
14. Nevada. San Diego State is hot and gave Nevada a tough loss. Still like the talent, will be underseeded because they have a weak schedule.
15. Florida. My prior Florida prophesy is coming true, and with four wins in a row Florida is now safe in tournament. LSU win helped seeding, biggest riser of the week.
16. Maryland. Incredibly streaky team in the midst of an good stretch.
17. Cincinnati. So-so non-conference being boosted by nice American record and better play. Jarron Cumberland putting up solid numbers in an expanded role.
18. Kansas State. Will likely win Big 12 with win tonight at Kansas.
19. Florida State. Loss at North Carolina ended a nice run that vaulted Seminoles up to a 5-seed. 3/5 showdown with Virginia Tech likely determines ACC tournament double-bye.
20. Wisconsin. Ethan Happ emerging as Big Ten POY favorite.
21. Baylor. Still flying under-the-radar, beat Iowa State on the road.
22. Iowa. Still locked into 6-seed with aplenty of recent last-second wins.
23. St. John’s. Great week with wins over Villanova and Seton Hall, now a solid bet to make tournament in some capacity.
24. Wofford. Gonzaga is the only other team without a conference loss. Good option for at-large, if one of UNCG, ETSU, or Furman win SoCon.
25. Louisville. Not a good record, but good SOS, and Cards trending down after losing 4 of 5.
26. Buffalo. Bulls have bounced back from bad MAC losses, BGSU loss means MAC back to a 1-bid league.
27. Mississippi State. 4 straight wins, but now down a Weatherspoon.
28. Washington. Running away with bad Pac-12. 7-seed probably ceiling.
29. Kansas. Need a win tonight vs. Kansas State to keep title streak alive. Good non-conf make them a top four, but they’ve been vulnerable in conference. At risk of being lower than a 4-seed for first time since 2000
30. TCU. Mixed week losing to Oklahoma State but completing sweep of Iowa State. Have three more prove-it games in March.
31. UCF. Dismantled SMU, making a good at-large case as top 3 AAC team.
32. VCU. Present A-10 auto-bid currently leagues best shot for at-large consideration.
33. Texas Kerwin Roach is out, but Horns still in play for one of Big 12’s many tournament berths.
34. Belmont. In close tase with Murray State for OVC. Potential but unlikely two-bid league. Winner should fall in 11-12 range.
35. Syracuse. Much larger than basketball concerns in the wake of the Jim Boeheim tragedy, but Orange still safe in my bracket.
36. Virginia Tech. Have been hit with injuries and lack a signature win. Get their chance at one tomorrow vs. Duke.
37. Ole Miss. Up and down in conference, lost to South Carolina and narrowly beat Georgia. Fell a lot in my projections, but more because of other teams playing well than Rebels playing bad.
38. Iowa State. Past the tougher part of their schedule, but also dropped two games last week against teams they should beat if they want top four consideration.
39. Ohio State. Above average team in above average conference, good makings for an 8/9 seed.
40. Villanova. Defending champs in a struggle right now. Biggest summer of the week, from high-5 to low-7. Need to get it together against Marquette for shot to win Big East, though that ship may have sailed. Also at risk of being passed by St. John’s as #2 Big East team.
41. Auburn
42. Temple
43. Seton Hall
44. NC State
45. Arizona State
46. Oklahoma
47. Clemson
48. New Mexico State
49. Lipscomb
50. Butler
51. Minnesota
52. Old Dominion
53. Hofstra
54. South Dakota State
55. Vermont
56. Yale
57. UC Irvine
58. Texas State
59. Montana
60. Wright State
61. Radford
62. Sam Houston State
63. Bucknell
64. Missouri State
65. Iona
66. Norfolk State
67. Prairie View A&M
68. St. Francis (PA)