Triple Option

Feb. 18, 2019 1:25 PM

By Michael Maynard

First week of bubble watch. I’m not declaring any locks yet, there’s still too much season left where chaos can happen. So instead I’ve declared 31 teams “safe.” Some of those like Duke, Gonzaga, etc. probably should be locks but for ceremonial purposes they are not there yet. The difference between “lock” and “safe” is barring any unexpected change. When I make a team a lock I’m essentially saying they have no work left to do and could lose out and still make the tournament. “Safe” means unless they fall off a cliff, i.e. lose out, they’re probably making the tournament.

The “In” and “Out” labels designate bubble teams. Teams where every game matters, and their fate is not yet determined. The higher seed they are, the farther they are diff the bubble. This is also why I rank at-large teams, to show bubble priority.

As mentioned, there are 31 safes. It would have worked out better if they’re were 32 so I could say 8-seeds up, but TCU isn’t yet there. This also does not take into account inevitable auto-bids. It will later, the purpose of omitting that for the time being is to show which mid-major teams have a chance at securing an at-large should they fail to win the conference tournament.

ACC (9)

SAFE (7): Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Syracuse

IN (2): NC State, Clemson

OUT: NONE

B1G (10)

SAFE (6): Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Iowa, Maryland

IN (2): Ohio State, Minnesota

OUT (2): Indiana, Nebraska

Big 12 (8)

SAFE (4): Kansas, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas State

IN (4): TCU, Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma

OUT: NONE

SEC (9)

SAFE (6): Tennessee, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Auburn

IN (1): Florida

OUT (2): Alabama, Arkansas

Big East (6)

SAFE (2): Marquette, Villanova

IN (2): St. John’s, Seton Hall

OUT (2): Butler, Creighton

American (4)

SAFE (2): Houston, Cincinnati

IN (2): UCF, Temple

OUT: NONE

A-10 (2)

SAFE: NONE

IN (2): Davidson, VCU

OUT: NONE

MAC (3)

SAFE (1): Buffalo

IN (1): Bowling Green

OUT (1): Toledo

WCC (3)

SAFE (1): Gonzaga

IN: NONE

OUT (2): San Francisco, St. Mary’s

Pac 12 (2)

SAFE (1): Washington

IN: NONE

OUT (1): Arizona State

Mountain West (2)

SAFE (1): Nevada

IN: NONE

OUT (1): Utah State

SoCon (3)

SAFE: NONE

IN (1): Wofford

OUT (2): Furman, UNC Greensboro

A-Sun (2)

SAFE: NONE

IN (1): Lipscomb

OUT (1): Liberty