Triple Option

Feb. 11, 2019 @2:27

By Michael Maynard

One of the newest traditions in college basketball is the pre-release of the selection committee’s top 16 teams (top 4 seeds). After a dormant three months, we now get an insight as to how the hierarchy of college basketball feels about the top teams.

Here’s what they gave us:

SOUTH: 1-Duke (1), 2-Michigan (6), 3-Marquette (12), 4- Iowa State (13)

EAST: 1-Tennessee (2), 2-North Carolina (7), 3-Purdue (9), 4-Nevada (14)

MIDWEST: 1-Virginia (3), 2-Kentucky (5), 3-Houston (11), 4-Wisconsin (16)

WEST: 1-Gonzaga (4), 2-Michigan State (8), 3- Kansas (10), 4- Louisville (15)

These were released Saturday morning, but overall this made my job of projecting teams very easy at the top, as I just kept these as the basis of the top 4.

I actually don’t disagree much with what the committee did. I like my Gonzaga rule to put them as a 2-seed, but I’m fine with them being a one because they did beat the #1 team overall and their losses were to #2 and #7. The Big Ten’s depth makes me want to put the conference winner in that 4th 1-seed, but Michigan and Michigan State have both faltered lately. Plus for Michigan, the current auto-bid representative, the opportunity of playing the Sweet 16 in Louisville rather than Anaheim is more favorable than being the top regional seed.

I referenced these rankings being released early Saturday, that is before Iowa State, Louisville, and Wisconsin all lost. However the losses weren’t catastrophic, so I kept the 4 the same. Texas Tech has a case to replace Iowa State, but the Cyclones were considered the top 4-seed so the loss to TCU probably doesn’t drop them enough. Villanova and Virginia Tech are the other border teams to this point.

I also believe Nevada is a better team than Houston, but they have nearly identical records and Houston has more impressive wins.

The primary takeaway is that the committee respects the NET. Nobody really knows what the NET is or measures, but these rankings demonstrated that the committee uses NET as a significant factor in creating their model.

Fourteen of the top sixteen in the NET are in the committee’s top 16. Of the two top-16 NET excluded are Texas Tech and Virginia Tech, which may be the committee’s 17 and 18. The two exceptions are #18 Kansas and #21 Marquette, which are both somewhat significant exceptions as they’re both 3-seeds.

Kansas may be a flaw in the NET. They have wins against Michigan State, Tennessee and Marquette as well. They beat Texas Tech soundly at home and split with Iowa State. Of their other five losses, one is a top-5 team in Kentucky, at Rupp Arena. All the other losses are on the road. Texas and Kansas State are both tournament teams. Arizona State is on the bubble and West Virginia is a tough venue even though they’re kind of bad. So I’m not really sure how a team like LSU or even Virginia Tech better resembles the NET’s criteria.

If the NET is advanced enough to take into account injuries and trends, that could explain why it doesn’t like Kansas. Udoka Azibuike is out for the year and now LaGerald Vick will miss some time. However they still have Dedric Lawson, Devon Dotson, Marcus Garrett, and Quentin Grimes. This is still a talented roster though inexperienced. They still probably win the Big 12, which the committee seems to realize by putting them as the top seed in the conference.

I do want to make amends to my Marquette take from last week. I said they wouldn’t lose at home, and of course they lose at home to St. John’s a day later. My bad. I did say they would beat Villanova which they barely did, but I’m not gonna pretend I understand the Big East because St. John’s followed up the huge road win with a home dud against Providence.

I don’t see how Marquette is two seeds better than Villanova, which may be more that I see Villanova as a 4-seed right now. Marquette does have a much better non-conference than the defending National Champs, who dropped games to Furman and Penn.

Looking at the rest of the bracket, not much changed. 5-6 seeds are nearly identical. Cincinnati moved up two seeds and Buffalo sank two seeds. Oklahoma has replaced TCU as the fringe team in the Big 12 and Nebraska finally dropped out. Clemson was the winner of the week, as with two quality wins that moved them from out of the tournament to an 8-seed.

The First Four is two Big East vs. SEC matchups. St. John’s doesn’t deserve to be in because they have zero consistency, but two wins against Marquette might be enough. Alabama and Seton Hall are both clinging to Kentucky victories, which look better by the day as the Cats stay hot. Florida at 12-11 in the tournament as a bubble feels ridiculous, but their strength of schedule is absurd. They split with Butler and lost to South Carolina on a crazy last-second play, but every single one of their other losses were to tournament teams. They just haven’t won any of them, except for one against Ole Miss. Their schedule cools off a bit but they play a huge game against Alabama, the winner of which probably moves into Last 4 Bye territory.

VCU and Temple remain right in the race, Arizona had a weird week where they split at home to the Washington schools, with the loss being by 20 to Wazzu. Conclusion: Pac 12 still a one bid league until further notice. Also for what it’s worth, Wofford and Lipscomb may both be in at-large consideration in the event they don’t win their conferences.

That’s all I got. Little more than a month before all the chaos starts, the grind is almost over.