Triple Option

Feb. 4, 2019 @11:40 PM

By Michael Maynard

So football season is over, and while I’ve been in March Madness mode for about a month, I imagine most of the population is moving on from the NFL’s edition of the Cheez-It Bowl into bracket season.

Here we are, less than 6 weeks from Selection Sunday, and the college basketball action is starting to heat up. My latest projections show moderate movement. Nebraska sank like a rock and Baylor has quickly ascended from a team on the outside to a team making a solid case for an 8 seed or higher. Other than that, there’s not a ton of movement.

I didn’t overreact to Michigan State losing, but Indiana stopped the bleeding with the statement win at the Breslin Center. I did overreact to Marquette beating up on Butler because I’m becoming more convinced they can actually play defense. And when a team scores 24 points in a whole game I have no choice to overreact and drop them a seed.

Last week I went through my process. Now I put it to action and explain where the teams are at. I’ll do this by conference, in descending order of number of bids per conference.

B1G (10)

After a dreadful 2017-18 season that ended up with only four tournament teams, the Big Ten has surged back to the top in an incredibly deep conference. I have six teams that are very safe. I’m setting the general benchmark conference record as 9 wins. I actually just learned the Big Ten is playing twenty conference games which is a first. Michigan and Michigan State are already at that minimum and will surely do more, and Purdue, Wisconsin, and Maryland are almost there. I believe Iowa has done enough too so I’m putting them in the safe category. At this point the question is seeding. The winner of the conference probably deserves a 1, and I can’t imagine any of these six being lower than a 6-seed barring a huge collapse. Michigan is probably the favorite. Michigan State is cooling off after a stretch that put them in contention for a 1-seed. I doubted Purdue because of a meh non-conference, which I regret because they’re clearly legit. Maryland has the talent and looked really good for that six game ish stretch a few weeks ago, but they do have consistency issues. I have to say that about a team that loses at home to Illinois. Wisconsin and Iowa are both complete teams. Wisconsin is trending upwards with the potential of maybe a 4, I’m not sure Iowa can get much higher than a 5 or 6 unless they like win out.

So now to the bubble, which includes four teams that I have all in. With all due respect to Rutgers and Illinois for showing significant program growth, it’s a long shot. Ohio State and Minnesota are less impressive, but more appealing than the rest of the bubble. Ohio State has Cincinnati and Creighton on the resume, Minnesota has Washington. Other than that the best things going is that they’re in the Big Ten. Both look like they’ll end up in the tournament. At the bar I set, Ohio State has to finish 5-5 and maybe win a conference game, and Minnesota only needs 3 wins. However that’s minimal require, so it would help both to finish with winning records in conference. Both play very tough schedules going forward, which will help make their case only if they win a few.

Indiana looked for much of the early year like they would be safe, but a terrible January sunk them to play-in territory. I kept them in the field thinking eventually they would end the seven game skid and turn it around, which they did Saturday in East Lansing. Maybe they just needed January to end. I moved them up to a 10 after the MSU win. Their non-conference wins vs. Marquette and Louisville and now the road upset of Michigan State should be enough to keep them in as long as they keep their heads above water and don’t go on another massive losing streak. A 7 seed is not out of reach, they have much higher upside than definitely Ohio State and probably Minnesota.

Now it’s time to overreact. Two weeks ago I had Nebraska as a 4-seed, and they’ve proceeded to fall to the last team in the tournament. A five game skid and loss of Isaac Copeland for the season has made them a fringe tournament team. I had a razor-this margin between Nebraska and VCU, I went with Nebraska because the Big Ten is a better conference. But if they don’t at least show something this week against Maryland and Purdue, they’re in danger of falling off. I’m not a huge hot-seat guy, but this was supposed to be the year for Nebraska basketball. If Tim Miles doesn’t right this ship fast, Ty Lue is a phone call away.

That’s purely me speculating and now Nebraska will probably beat Maryland by 30. On to the ACC.

ACC (8)

North Carolina State is going to go on some historic run and win the National Championship. Yet that will come with a gigantic asterisk.

They scored twenty-four points in a full basketball game.

That is incredible. I haven’t been doing this for all that long and I’ve never seen anything like that. I’m pretty sure I had one or two rec games where I threw up more than 24 points. Put this team against the Tony Bennett Virginia all-star roster and I think they score more than 24 points. What just happened is truly something remarkable.

Aside from that, I don’t have much to say here. The ACC has been unchanged for like a month. There’s 8 teams that are in. Virginia and Duke are probably both going to be 1-seeds. North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Louisville all look really good. Florida State and Syracuse are both safe too, and NC State has a good enough resume that they can survive one bad offensive game. I had Pitt in a few weeks ago-probably less likely after a few losses. Clemson needs to make a compelling case but they’re the closest team out. What I’m watching for here is if it works out where we get Alabama vs. Clemson in a play-in game.

Big 12 (8)

This is Kansas’s conference to lose, just as it has been for the last 12 years. They just demolished Texas Tech, who with Iowa State are the teams most fit to challenge the Jayhawks. However, they do still have to play that other team in Kansas twice. Kansas State is a puzzle worth writing a ton about, but I’ll try to simplify it to a few sentences.

After DaddyLockz and I put the mortgage lock of the century on K-State -4.5 at Texas A&M, A&M played a zone and Kansas State forgot how to shoot. So the schedule gave them a gameless week, where I imagine they practiced zone offense because they beat the hell out of Oklahoma State. So I have them at a modest 6-seed, which I believe is higher than many of my bracketology counterparts. I don’t understand how they’re down. I don’t think anybody’s going to win at Marquette this year, and all of their losses were close with the exception of the home Texas dud without Dean Wade.

There’s also the overarching feeling like with Florida State that they did make the Elite 8 last year. But I don’t know how to look at that run because one of those games was a 16-seed, they played the game of their life to beat Kentucky, and then they got pounded by Loyola. However they did return their entire starting lineup so I expect elite status out of them. I can’t figure this team out. But there is a very good chance they somehow end up in my Final Four.

Moving on, the story of the Big 12 that I think I’m the only one talking about is the Baylor Bears. I know I’m supposed to be the expert on this, but I could not tell you one thing about this team. I think of Baylor basketball and my mind goes to Manu Lecomt and Rico Gathers. But I cannot deny the fact that they’re 6-2 in conference, so I have no choice but to put them in. I would love to watch their weekday game to learn more about them, but of course they’re on the Longhorn Network. Their Saturday game slot is buried behind Duke-Virginia in the 5pm slot, but Kansas State at Baylor carries a lot of intrigue for bracketology.

I really don’t like putting 80% of a conference in the tournament, but Oklahoma and Texas both have decent non-conferences that should put them in, so I’m left with TCU as the fringe team. I don’t trust them without Jaylen Fisher, at least until proven otherwise. They sort of figured it out when this happened last year, but I withdraw all judgement because they played Syracuse in the tournament so they never had a shot. They’re 3-5 in conference and their non-conference isn’t that outstanding. They’re the Big 12 team most in danger. But as I will mention a lot more this year, the bubble is not that good, which helps the teams currently in the tournament. As Joe Maddon infamously said, “try not to suck.” Basically for fringe teams like TCU and Nebraska, or looking ahead Seton Hall and St. John’s, as long as they don’t suck more than they are now, they should be in because they’re still in now.

SEC (7)

Elon Musk recently said, “I want to be clear that I do not respect the SEC.” That’s kind of how I feel right now. Tennessee looks like a clear 1-seed at their current pace and could easily be undefeated if Grant Williams doesn’t foul out of the Kansas game. Kentucky figured it out after getting embarrassed in the Champions Classic. After that, meh. LSU has been the next most consistent team in conference, and Naz Reid and Tremont Waters make them intriguing. Auburn and Mississippi State should both be better than 4-4, and their lack of consistency is reflected in their seeds. However they both played impressively this past weekend, so that’s something to build off. I’d be shocked if those 5 teams don’t make the tournament.

Ole Miss and Florida are the other two in. Ole Miss was a really trendy team not too long ago but have since fallen off in the middle of the pack. Their win at Mississippi State was really their true propeller up the rankings and projections, so now that the Bulldogs returned the favor I’d be curious to see if some of the love stops. They did beat Baylor in the Emerald Coast Classic, so if Baylor continues rolling through the Big 12 that becomes a great win.

Florida is a like Kansas State where I they’re a complete mystery to me so I’ll end up picking them in March. I look at a team that returned their two studs Allen and Vaughn and picked up Canadien sensation Andrew Nembhard, and I can’t fathom how they’re 12-9. What they have going for them is that all the metrics love them because they have played a tough schedule, and they have a nice mix of winnable games to beef up their record and matchups against tournament-level teams to prove themselves to the committee. Their present spot in Dayton seems appropriate for this situation.

Alabama is the only team to beat Kentucky in conference so far. Just like football, they don’t play anyone significant out of conference, so their best wins are against mid-major powerhouses like Murray State, Georgia State, and Arizona. Their one true road game out of conference is UCF, I can only imagine if that were football. UCF got Bama and they beat them. They’re one of the first teams out but still in the picture. I find it hard to believe the SEC gets 8 teams in.

South Carolina is 6-2 but they need to do really good in conference and beta a few more good teams to make up for their sloppy non-conference. Arkansas had been unimpressive, but they were in a similar spot last year and then picked it up to get a 7-seed. Not saying that’s the case this year, but they have an intriguing NBA prospect in Center Daniel Gafford. The Texas Tech game restored their conference and the win in Baton Rouge was a start to making a comeback case.

Big East (4)

Oh the wonders of the Big East. Gone are the days where every game felt like a street fight, in are the days where I have no idea who the hell is good.

At the top we have Villanova and Marquette. Villanova struggled out of conference with losses to Michigan, Furman, Penn, and Kansas. Since then, they have surged to an undefeated Big East start behind 5th year senior Phil Booth. However they still haven’t played the other good team in the conference, which will change after they travel to the Fiserv Forum next Saturday.

Marquette is probably the hottest team in the country right now after Tennessee. Markus Howard is a walking bucket and will run away with Big East player of the year. They’re not losing at home this year either. Even against Nova.

I do have a few worries about this team. Two of them have been mostly debunked, that they don’t play defense and can’t win on the road. The no defense stereotype developed after how horrible they were on that end last year, but Wojo has motivated his experienced group to improve on the defensive end, and its made a noticeable difference that makes them a legit contender. The experience also probably best explains how they’ve won games at Butler, Xavier, Georgetown, and Creighton.

The main concern I have is actually about the offense. Which seems weird because of late Marquette has been a top offensive team, but I think back to the Kansas game where they stalled in the second half. Outside of Howard they have the Hauser brothers spotting up and Theo John controlling the paint. That’s really it in terms of consistent scoring, and because they’re so dependent on the 3-point game, one bad shooting game in the tournament and they’ll probably lose. I say probably because they’re playing better defense, and of course defense travels. That’s the difference between this year and last year and why they’ve taken that next step.

The rest of the Big East is a war zone. Everyone is below .500 in conference, and none have been consistent at all. Seton Hall and St. John’s are barely hanging on. I still think of Seton Hall as the team that beat Kentucky at MSG and Maryland on the road, but they’ve also lost to DePaul twice. They’ve shown promise but not enough of it. And this isn’t exactly Arizona State where they’re falling back on two wins against 1-seeds, so they need to pick it up. Their next four games are winnable; Creighton twice, Georgetown, and Xavier before traveling to St. John’s. 4-6 right now, I’d say they need at least 10-8 to feel safe. Wouldn’t hurt to beat Marquette and/or Villanova, whom they play consecutively in their final two games.

My St. John’s stance is that they have Shamorie Ponds and Mustapha Heron, so like Indiana I look at them and say they should be winning games but they’re not. It’s the bizarro Baylor effect. They just got embarrassed by Duke, and it doesn’t get easier Tuesday at Marquette. I’d put them in the same boat as Seton Hall where 10-8 is probably good enough.

Butler and Creighton are Next 4 Out, but that’s indicative of how bad the bubble is because they both have plenty of work to do.

American (3)

As much as I want to see Penny Hardaway and Dan Hurley in the dance, I don’t think that’s happening. The AAC has potential to be a dynamite league 2-3 years down the road, but for now it’s probably 4 teams at best. Houston should end up in the 3-4 range, and their one loss is a split with Temple, so they’ve shown consistency. Last year was one of the worst breaks possible as they had Michigan beat, them to see Swaggy Poole hit a buzzer beater and the Wolverines go all the way to the finale. Man bun Rob Grey is gone, but the team is still legit and better than last year.

Cincinnati is basically the same team they’ve always been under Mick Cronin. Theyre the Aldi brand version of Virginia. Which isn’t an insult because it’s still quality product, the product just isn’t as glamorous. Defensive minded teams usually are more consistent (“defense travels”, get used to that one). I wouldn’t be shocked if they catch some of the Xavier syndrome from their crosstown rivals and make their run in the year they weren’t as hyped up. Actually reverse Xavier syndrome because Xavier followed their good year with a dud. Cincinnati will make it in the 7-9 range, and I wouldn’t want to play them. I’ll leave it at that.

UCF slides in as of now. Temple is the second team out. Ultimately I think getting to the American championship game would be sufficient, but for the regular season there’s not a ton of wiggle room for either to lose many more games.

Pac 12 (2)

Credit to you if you caught my subtle Pac 12 putdown earlier. It’s been a rough go of it between football and basketball the last 2 years. Oregon State did win College Baseball so they conference deserves that much. I am also a little convinced the only thing making this conference worth caring about is Bill Walton roaming out of the forest every Thursday and calling a game in Eugene or Tucson.

However, Washington has made an at-large case. Going 8-0 in any conference is difficult, especially with some of the road games in the Pac 12. I respect that with an 8-seed. I feel they’ve bounced off the ceiling. 7 would be a max, 9 would be a min with moderate regression.

I think it’s about 70-30 they get multiple bids, more or less does Washington win the Pac 12 tournament because if not I’m not sure Arizona State becomes a sure thing. Beating Kansas is good, but at home not as much. West Virginia can say as much. Besides between however the A-10 unfolds, and if Gonzaga, Nevada, and Buffalo don’t win the pair conference tournaments, suddenly there are less spots in the field. Arizona State passed Temple this week and is in, but barely. They need to make a really convincing case to feel safe on Selection Sunday.

MAC (2)

What’s better than MACtion? Double MACtion. Because my regular season method is to put the current leader as the auto-bid, that would be Bowling Green. Buffalo should be an at large team should they lose the conference, but losses to NIU and Bowling Green hurt. So does West Virginia’s disappointing year which weakens that early win. Syracuse win helps, but the Bulls are slipping. They’re on the 6-7 border, and one more loss could sink them to the 8-9 range, maybe even bubble territory. One team to watch as the MAC tournament ultimately decides whether the MAC gets one or two bids is Toledo, who has been competitive and has good metric ratings.

Mid Majors

I won’t go through everything, here’s just a few more notes.

WCC: My rule for Gonzaga is that # of losses = seed. 2017 had 1, were a 1. 2018 had 4, were a 4. This year have 2, are currently a 2. By the way they’re playing, if they lose a game in this conference they deserve to be dropped a seed. As far as I’m concerned, any other team who wants an at-large in this conference needs to beat Gonzaga. San Francisco already lost that chance at home. I don’t pay attention to the metrics here. San Francisco or St. Mary’s need to beat the top dogs to get in the dance.

Mountain West: Nevada is legit. They had one really bad game where the lost to New Mexico by a bunch. They don’t have many impressive wins, which probably makes them a 3 or 4 now that they can’t be undefeated. However, I’ve watched them play a few times and they’re Gonzagaing everyone in that conference and they look a title contender. I don’t understand the Utah State love as a bubble team. Their best win is St. Mary’s, they lost to Nevada and Fresno State at home. Yet they’re high in the NET and other metrics. Somebody please enlighten me on this. Otherwise they are solidly out of my field.

A10: Davidson has the tiebreaker over George Mason, which is about a 3-seed difference. VCU has the best bubble case, and as I mentioned earlier they’re very close to edging out Nebraska. 3 teams is a possibility, but I’d say the best bets are whoever gets the auto bid, then VCU, than Davidson or Saint Louis if either of them impress going forward. SLU had a decent case going but has went through a recent rough patch.

OVC: Murray State and Ja Morant are the team everyone expects to see in March, but Belmont beat them already and are currently the team in the field. Those two, Austin Peay, and Jacksonville State are all in a four-way tie for the lead, so it’s a four horse race for an OVC berth.

SoCon: The best basketball conference no one knows about because they haven’t won a game yet in the tournament despite decent seeds. Wofford and Chattanooga as 12s, then ETSU and UNCG as 13s. Nobody’s won since Davidson was in the conference. Anyway, Wofford is challenging for an 11. I’m not sure if “Operation Fade Citadel” describes Wofford’s dominance, or if they’re just a house and have this league under wraps. I’ll try to learn more about the Terriers because they could be a trendy upset team in March.

C-USA: Worth mentioning because they’ve won four straight 1st round games. Lot of horses this year, will come down to conference tournament. Money on Marshall to repeat or Western Kentucky to show up.

Missouri Valley: They did get a team in the Final Four last year, but that team kind of sucks right now. Loyola has the resume of a 15-seed but they probably get a 13 or 14 royalty after last year. However, Wichita State leaving really opened up this conference, and right now Illinois State gets a bid in the dance. I’d still bet that Loyola shows up in the tournament and houses everyone because they know these conference games mean really nothing, especially since their at-large case is dead. I still wouldn’t want to play them in the tournament. If I’m Purdue or Louisville or fill in the blank I would be scared out of my mind seeing Sister Jean and the Loyola Ramblers show up on the other side of the court come March. Not to look ahead to far, but what I really want to see is Iowa State vs. Loyola-Chicago so Clayton Custer gets a chance at a revenge game.

Hofstra, Lipscomb, and Northern Kentucky are the other classes of the Mid-Majors. We very realistically can see Chris Clemens and/or Mike Daum in the dance. There’s a chance if the committee really wants to be cruel they could make Duke play Lehigh in the first round and have Coach K face those demons. Think that covers the mid-majors.

Thank you to anyone who actually read through all of this. Please feel free to give me feedback so I can vary these articles. I won’t do a long essay like this again, but these are some of the big things to look for to and through Selection Sunday.