Triple Option

By Michael Maynard

For this set of matchups I have added some additional statistics about picking the matchups. I moved the part featuring the game spread into this section. I took the number from the ESPN app, and the final number can vary by about a half a point depending on the booking source. Same deal with the over/under I added. I also included the FPI number from the ESPN app, which predicts which team should win. Finally I included the percentage of who the public likes. This is from the Capital One Bowl Pickem on ESPN, so the stat is straight up. It just takes it to account what percentage of the people playing the game pick either team.

It’s been a long 3 day drought from bowl games, so let’s get into the action.

Servpro First Responder Bowl (12:30 PM CT, ESPN, Cotton Bowl, Dallas, TX): Boston College vs. #25 Boise State

LINE: BSU -1.5, O/U: 49.5, FPI: BSU 56.0%, Public: 87% Boise State

Why I Care: I developed a deep connection to the Heart of Dallas Bowl in its years, as the B1G vs. C-USA showdown became a staple of bowl mania. That pairing of matchups has only actually occurred twice, in 2012 Houston vs. Penn State before the American was formed, and again in 2014 Louisiana Tech vs. Illinois. Since then has been: Washington vs. Southern Miss in 2015, where no bowl victory over a C-USA team has generated more preseason hype for the winner the next season (Washington lost to Alabama in the Peach Bowl the following season). 2016 pitted 5-7 North Texas against Army who wouldn’t have been bowl-eligible at 5-6 (6-6, but had 2 FCS wins) if teams weren’t needed. The game ended up going into overtime and both programs have gone up since. 2017 featured Utah and West Virginia, as neither team found a home in the conferences primary bowl game. The bowl moves direction and becomes the Servpro First Responder Bowl, and features an unusual pairing of teams of Boston College and Boise State.

Why You Should Care: Both teams kinda got screwed by their conference selection process. Boston College struggled down the stretch and only finished 4-4 in conference, and essentially made them the 9th team out of the ACC to get assigned a bowl as a ton teams finished 5-3 or 4-4. Miami, Virginia, and Virginia Tech all got the primary selections before BC.Boise State lost out as Fresno State beat The Broncos on the blue turf to win the Conference Championship. That sent the Bulldogs to the Las Vegas Bowl, and the lower teams of the conference filled the lesser games up last week. Because the Poinsettia Bowl dissolved, BYU made an agreement with ESPN that if bowl eligible, the Cougars would get a bowl bid. This of course was the Potato Bowl in place of the MWC bid, so Boise State was the odd team out. The First Responder Bowl was one of the final bowl games to announce its matchup, and it had an opening late, and Boise State needed a home.

Anyway, Boise State and Boston College figures to be a balanced matchup in terms of talent and style. Brett Rypien makes his final BSU start while AJ Dillon can showcase himself for next year. The Heart of Dallas Bowl tradition should carry over in this new era.

Team Stats:

Boston College: 7-5, 4-4 ACC (2-4 ATLANTIC). BER: 4-4. OPPG: 32.0, DPPG: 25.7, Pt. Diff: +76

Boise State: 10-3, 7-1 MWC (5-0 MOUNTAIN). BER: 6-3. OPPG: 35.4, DPPG: 22.1, Pt. Diff: +173

Game Notes:

• Only matchup between teams where colleges start with same letter.
• First ACC vs. Mountain West game of the season.
• Boston College has been Bowl eligible in 5 of Steve Addazio’s 6 season, but so far are 1-3.

Quick Lane Bowl (4:15 PM CT, ESPN, Ford Field, Detroit, MI): Minnesota vs. Georgia Tech

LINE: GT -6.0, O/U: 56, FPI: GT 60.5%, Public: 76% Georgia Tech

Why I Care: Row the Boat. I’ve followed PJ Fleck and his career dating back to his Western days and he is a very easy guy to root for. I don’t really have a team but many times I end up cheering for Minnesota. So this may be my favorite team in bowl season.

Why You Should Care: Paul Johnson’s Final game. The Georgia Tech head coach decided to hang it up after 10 seasons in Atlanta, and the Quick Lane Bowl will be his final game at the helm before GT moves into the Geoff Collins era. Collins will not be continuing the triple option identity associated with Johnson and Georgia Tech, so today also marks an end of an era.

Team Stats:

Minnesota: 6-6, 3-6 B1G (2-4 WEST). BER: 4-3. OPPG: 28.5, DPPG: 27.1, Pt. Diff: +17

Georgia Tech: 7-5, 5-3 ACC (4-2 ATLANTIC). BER: 3-5. OPPG: 35.6, DPPG: 29.2, Pt Diff: +77

Game Notes:

• Changed to Quick Lane Bowl from Little Caesar’s Bowl in 2014.
• 4th matchup of teams not bowl eligible in 2017, but both were eligible in 2016.
• Minnesota made a Quick Lane Bowl appearance in 2015, beating Central Michigan 21-14. That year had insufficient bowl eligible teams to fill the allotted slots, so the 5-7 Gophers were invited to a bowl game.
• Ford Field is one of 6 venues that have hosted a Final Four, Super Bowl, and Bowl Game.

Cheez-It Bowl (8:30 PM CT, ESPN, Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ): California vs. TCU

LINE: CAL -1, O/U: 38, FPI: TCU 53.3%, Public: 57% TCU

Why I Care: First edition of the Cheez-It Bowl. One of 3 traditional Bowl Games in Arizona, this location has varied in branding. Previous titles included the Copper Bowl and Insight Bowl. For a bit it was the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl in Tempe at ASU Stadium. Then it moved to Chase Field in downtown Phoenix, home of the Arizona Diamondbacks, where it became the Motel 6 Cactus Bowl.

Why You Should Care: Projected defensive slugfest. The over/under is a bizarre 38 which reflects both teams defensive identities. Cal cycled through 3 starting quarterbacks over the course of 2018, and TCU’s initial starter Shawn Robinson just transferred to a Missouri. Needless to say, offense will be on the back burner for this first ever Cheez-It Bowl. Cal showed a two game improvement and further showed improvement under Justin Wilcox, while TCU had by their standards a down year, losing to Kansas and barely becoming bowl eligible, as they needed 3 late season wins over Kansas State, Baylor, And Oklahoma to reach the 6-win mark.

Team Stats:

California: 7-5, 4-5 Pac 12 (2-3 NORTH). BER: 2-2. OPPG: 22.3, DPPG: 21.3, Pt. Diff: +18

TCU: 6-6, 4-5 Big 12. BER: 3-4. OPPG: 24.5, DPPG: 24.4, Pt. Diff: +1

Game Notes:

• One of three bowl games that outright changed their name. Second of such games today, the RedBox bowl on New Year’s Eve is the other one.
• One of two bowl games played at a baseball stadium (Pinstripe)
• While Cal makes its first bowl appearance since Jared Goff, in 2014, TCU has made a bowl game in 16 of 18 seasons under Gary Patterson
• The Big 12 is 4-0 in this game since the affiliation switched to Big 12 vs Pac 12 in 2015

Published December 26, 2018 @ 11:00 PM C.T.

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