Triple Option

By Michael Maynard

Bowl season is finally here.   I’m not going to post all 41 previews one day, because that wouldn’t be very interesting, and the games later in the month don’t have much relevance today.  Instead, I will post previews of the games on the game-day.  

I broke down the preview format into a couple of sections for each game.  The first part “Why I Care” explains why this game interests me.  Some of these games are  very good matchups, but there are some very bad ones.  I have to watch every game, so sometimes I need to give my reason to watch.  I know that not everyone has the Walk On’s Independence bowl and Servpro First Responders Bowl circles months in advance like me, so I also feature “Why You Should Care,” which gives a brief preview of the big headlines of the game from an objective perspective.  The “Team Stats feature each teams records overall, in conference, and in division. The BER number refers to teams’ records against bowl-eligible teams, which is a practical way of representing strength of schedule.  Some PPG figures are also included for reference.  “Game notes” are just random interesting nuggets about the game that don’t really fall under the two categories of analysis. 

There are technically 6 bowl games today, and this is broken into two parts.  The first three are in this post, the later 3 games will be broken down in a later post. 

Air Force Reserve Celebration Bowl (11 AM CT, ABC, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA): North Carolina A&T (-8) vs. Alcorn State

Why I Care: Bowl pickem.  I honestly would not care at all if this game wasn’t a Capital One Bowl Pickem game, and because never I have any knowledge of either team, the Celebration Bowl always gets a 1 confidence.  That’s not a shot at either team aside from the fact they’re FCS teams which is second-tier college football.  I exclusively follow FBS football, so I’m not going to pretend like I actually know something about either of these teams because I don’t.  

Why You Should Care: This is the fourth Celebration Bowl, and the three prior games were competitive.  It’s actually a very cool experience for the winners of the MEAC and SWAC to play in the brand new Atlanta stadium, which is probably more appealing than traveling to Fargo and Richmond for FCS tournament games.   My FCS knowledge is nowhere near knowing why neither of those conferences send teams to the tournament, but I do know that the Ivy League and Pioneer League also don’t send teams to the tournament.

This is also the first game of the bowl season even though it really isn’t a bowl, but for 90 . minutes it’s the only football on and nationally televised, so credit to the FCS for stealing some of the FBS’s thunder.  Tarik Cohen also went to NC A&T, so it’s not out of the question that there may be future pros in this game. 

Team Stats/Game Notes:

•  NC A&T is 9-2 and 1-0 against FBS opponents, a 28-23 win at East Carolina.  Making 3rd appearance in Celebration Bowl.
• Alcorn State is 9-3 and 0-2 against FBS opponents, losses to Georgia Tech and New Mexico State.  Making 2nd appearance in Celebration Bowl. 
• This matchup is a rematch of the inaugural Celebration Bowl in 2015, a 41-34 win by A&T.
• So doing some math on the above numbers, NC A&T and Alcorn State have made up 5/8 of the Celebration Bowl.  Grambling State and NC Central are the only other teams to appear thus far.  

Autonation Cure Bowl (12:30 PM CT, CBSSN, Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL):  Tulane (-3.0) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette

Why I  Care: First bowl game.  

Why You Should Care: This matchup of in-state rivals features teams with similar developing programs that each made significant strides on their 2017 seasons.  Tulane converted a late two-point conversion against Navy to secure bowl eligibility in Willie Fritz’s third season.  Louisiana-Lafayette won a weak Sun Belt West in Billy Napier’s first season, then lost to Appalachian State in the Sun Belt Championship.  

Team Stats:

Tulane: 6-6, 5-3 AAC (3-2 WEST).  BER: 2-5.  OPPG: 25.7, DPPG: 28.7, Pt. Diff: -36

Louisiana-Lafayette: 7-6, 5-3 Sun Belt (4-0 West).  BER: 2-4.  OPPG: 32.5, DPPG 34.5, Pt. Diff: -25 

Game Notes:

• 1 of 5 bowl games where neither team played in a bowl game last year.
• 1 of 3 bowl games at Camping World Stadium (Camping World, Citrus), which leads all hosts.  
• Only matchup of in state teams.  Also while only 4 are playing in bowl games, all 5 Louisiana FBS schools were bowl eligible in 2018
• Tulane is one of three teams ending a 5-year bowl drought, the longest streak snapping this year.  Hint: The other two are from New York.
• I mentioned Tulane went for the win against Navy.  They actually made the same choice last year in a similar position (down one) and record (5-6) against SMU and failed to convert. 

New Mexico Bowl Presented by Progressive ( 1 PM CT, ESPN, Dreamstyle Stadium,  Albuquerque, New Mexico): Utah State (-7.5) vs. North Texas

Why I Care:  I don’t know if either of these teams are actually good. This game is probably the best test for either team.  Utah State almost upset Michigan State Week 1, and North Texas blew out Arkansas in Fayetteville in the game with the fake fair catch.  Now Michigan State disappointed as everyone got hurt, and Arkansas sucks, but those were probably the best showings for each team.  

Why You Should Care: This is probably the best matchup of group of five teams that did not play for their conference championship.  Going off why I care about this came, while each team dominated most of their schedule, they both played a lot of bad teams, and lost their showcase games–Utah State to Boise State, North Texas to Louisiana Tech and UAB.  The BERs are listed below, which show the lack of quality opponents on the respective schedules.  North Texas’s one win against a bowl eligible team was Southern Miss, who wasn’t good enough to get a bowl berth.  Same thing with Utah State beating Wyoming. 

With that said, 9-3 and 10-2 don’t come easy.  Sophomore QB Jordan Love led the Aggies high-scoring offense, and North Texas counters with a fine option in Mason Fine (pun intended).  I hope that means a lot of points.   For MWC #3 vs. C-USA #3, this is an enticing matchup.

Team Stats: 

Utah State: 10-2, 7-1 MWC (4-1 MOUNTAIN).  BER: 3-2.  OPPG: 47.2, DPPG: 23.0, Pt. Diff: +235

North Texas: 9-3, 5-3 C-USA (4-2 WEST).  BER: 1-2.  OPPG: 36.4, DPPG: 21.8, Pt. Diff: +106

Game Notes: 

• Both Head Coaches, USU’s Matt Wells and NT’s Seth Littrell, were high on the list of G5 coaches for Power-5 consideration.  Wells was hired to replace Kliff Kingsbury at Texas Tech, while Littrell remains at North Texas–for now?  Littrell would have made sense at TTU as well, and his OC Graham Harrell played QB for the Red Raiders.  He has a nice gig in Denton with 3 straight bowl seasons, so it’s understandable that he’s in no rush to leave.  Power-5 teams will continue to check in, as he resurrected a program in terrible shape when he took the helm, similar to Lane Kiffin at FAU and Jeff Tedford at Fresno State.
• With Wells gone, assistant Frank Maile will coach the bowl game.   Utah State hired Gary Andersen for a second stint in Logan for 2019. 
• North Texas can achieve their first 10-win season ever with a win. 

Published December 15, 2018 @ 10:25 PM C.T. 

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