By Michael Maynard
For the past few weeks I’ve been doing bowl projections based on guessing how teams would finish and then filling in the matchups with appropriate representatives. Now that the regular season is for the most part concluded, with a few teams playing makeup games from weather delays, I can now give an accurate approximation of what matchups we’ll see in Bowl Season.
The season finished with 82 bowl eligible teams. That includes Virginia Tech, who can become eligible with a win against Marshall. To fill the 78 spots, when it got to the end in deciding who to omit, I used the priorities of 1.)7+ win schools, 2.) 6 win Power 5 schools, 3.) 6 win Group of 5 schools. When also taking into account conference affiliations, the 4 eligible teams left out of bowl games are BYU, Wyoming, Louisiana-Monroe, and Miami (OH).
College Football Playoff
Orange: #1 Alabama vs. #4 Oklahoma
Cotton: #2 Clemson vs. #3 Notre Dame
Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame have put themselves in position with undefeated regular seasons where in the case of the former two teams, a loss in the conference championship may not affect their playoff status. Notre Dame has all but clinched their spot, barring Conference Championship week chaos beyond their control.
Oklahoma is #4 now, but that won’t necessarily be the case next week even if they win. I put them #4 this week to make the NY6 bowl easier to forecast. Here’s my order of priority. If Georgia beats Alabama, they are in. The order would probably be Clemson, Georgia, Alabama, and Notre Dame. Since I imagine Georgia would beat Alabama in a close game, I might give Alabama the revenge game to make the rematch a playoff game rather than a National Championship. This scenario is where Notre Dame has to worry, because if Oklahoma or Ohio State have a good enough showing, one or both of them could pass them up, depending on the committees opinion. This also isn’t dependent on Georgia winning, because it’s possible Ohio State and Oklahoma both jump Notre Dame.
If the debate comes down to Oklahoma vs. Ohio State–which according to who is favored for the matchups, is the most likely scenario–the committee has their hands full. Too bad they couldn’t have played each other like the last two seasons. Both 12-1 conference championships, the resumes are very similar. Oklahoma’s road win at West Virginia matches Ohio State’s road win at Penn State. Oklahoma would have avenged their only loss to Texas in the Big 12 championship, while Michigan has a signature win with their recent blowout of Michigan. Both also have glaring weaknesses: Oklahoma can’t stop anyone on defense, and Ohio State has a bad loss to Purdue, and also struggled with non-bowl eligible teams Maryland and Nebraska. Oklahoma probably has the most threatening offense to Alabama, but the Tide would score 50 easy on the Sooners, so its a matter of can they out score them. Conversely, Ohio State’s defense isn’t very good either, and their is good but probably not on Oklahoma’s level. Maybe that changes in the B1G Championship.
The UCF hype remains existent. The scenario for UCF to have a playoff shot requires Alabama and Clemson winning, and Ohio State and Northwestern losing. I still don’t feel comfortable putting UCF in a matchup against Alabama without McKenzie Milton, but depending on their showing in the AAC Championship vs. Memphis, maybe there is a chance.
New Year’s Six
Peach: #9 LSU (9-3) vs. #10 Washington State (10-2)
Fiesta: #8 Michigan vs. #7 UCF
Rose: #6 Ohio State vs. #17 Washington
Sugar: #5 Georgia vs. #11 West Virginia
Last week I highlighted the void of a final team for the New Year’s Six. Washington’s upset over Washington State made it likely the Pac 12 would secure 2 NY6 spots.
Couple of notes on where this could change
- Washington/Utah winner goes to Rose Bowl. Loser goes to Alamo
- Florida has head to head win vs. LSU, so there is possibility committee has them ranked higher, although LSU still has more complete resume.
- Oklahoma is a lock for at least a NY6. West Virginia gets NY6 spot if OU wins Big 12. If OU wins and goes to playoff, see above. If OU wins and doesn’t go to playoff, OU goes to Sugar, West Virginia goes to peach. If Texas wins, Oklahoma goes to Peach or Fiesta, Texas goes to Sugar, West Virginia goes to Alamo
- If Georgia makes playoff, LSU goes to Sugar Bowl.
- If Ohio State wins and makes playoff, Michigan goes to Rose Bowl. If OSU doesn’t go to playoff, see above. If OSU loses, Northwestern goes to Rose Bowl, Ohio State goes to Fiesta Bowl, Michigan drops to Holiday or Outback Bowl.
- If Pitt improbably upsets Clemson, they get a NY6 bowl, which likely drops out Washington State.
- I will go into detail on a scenario for playoff UCF when that happens. However if UCF loses, MWC champion would be highest ranked G5 champion, and would go to Fiesta Bowl. That could drop UCF down to maybe a Cure Bowl vs. Appalachian State, and the loser of MWC Championship goes to Las Vegas Bowl or Cactus Bowl if Utah State gets moved to LV Bowl. Also as everything shifts in lower bowls, Wyoming probably goes to a bowl instead of Tulane.
Other Bowl Games
Each conference has sponsored bowl games that their teams are assigned to, which are broken up into primary and secondary choices. After the New Year’s Six teams are chosen, the primary bowls fill up with eligible teams from the conference, and secondary matchups are filled if more teams from that conference are available, and if not those games are flexed to other conferences with eligible teams. A helpful article I used that explains the bowl scenarios is (https://www.google.com/amp/s/collegefootballnews.com/2018/01/college-football-bowl-ties-affiliations-tie-ins-college-football-playoff-conference-2018-2019/amp). Areas where I had to put a team in a secondary bowl are denoted by *.
New Mexico: Fresno State (10-2) vs. UAB (10-2)
Cure: Tulane (6-6) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (7-5)
Las Vegas: California (7-4) vs. #21 Boise State (10-2)
Camellia: Eastern Michigan (7-5) vs. Troy (9-3)
New Orleans: Louisiana Tech (7-5) vs. Appalachian State (9-2)
Boca Raton: Middle Tennessee (8-4) vs. Northern Illinois (7-5)
Frisco: Houston (8-4) vs. Western Michigan (7-5)
Gasparilla: USF (7-5) vs. Southern Miss (6-5)
Bahamas: FIU (8-4) vs. Toledo (7-5)
Famous Idaho Potato: Ohio (8-4) vs. San Diego State (7-5)
Birmingham: Wake Forest* (6-6) vs. Memphis (8-4)
Armed Forces: #24 Army* (9-2) vs. Temple (8-4)
Dollar General: Buffalo (10-2) vs. Troy (9-3)
Hawaii: North Texas (8-4) vs. Hawaii (8-5)
First Responder: Minnesota (6-6) vs. Marshall (8-3)
Quick Lane: Purdue (6-6) vs. Virginia Tech (7-5)
Cheez-It: Baylor (6-6) vs. Utah State* (10-2)
Independence: Vanderbilt (6-6) vs. Virginia (7-5)
Pinstripe: Michigan State (7-5) vs. Boston College (7-5)
Texas: Oklahoma State (6-6) vs. Auburn (7-5)
Music City: #22 Mississippi State (8-4) vs. Wisconsin (7-5)
Camping World: #20 Iowa State (7-4) vs. #19 Syracuse (9-3)
Alamo: #12 Texas (9-3) vs. #16 Utah (9-3)
Belk: Missouri (8-4) vs. NC State (8-3)
Arizona: Nevada (8-4) vs. Arkansas State (8-4)
Military: Duke (7-5) vs. Cincinnati (10-2)
Sun: Oregon (8-4) vs. Georgia Tech (7-5)
RedBox: Iowa (8-4) vs. Arizona State (7-5)
Liberty: TCU (6-6) vs. South Carolina (6-5)
Holiday: #18 Northwestern (8-4) vs. Stanford (7-4)
Gator: #23 Texas A&M (8-4) vs. Miami (FL) (7-5)
Outback: #14 Penn State (9-3) vs. #14 Florida (9-3)
Citrus: Pitt* (7-5) vs. #15 Kentucky (9-3)
Couple of notes: There is not much shifting that can occur here beyond what was outlined in the NY6 scenario, as most of these teams do not play again until bowl season. Northwestern, Pitt, Utah, Memphis, and Fresno State would probably not may be affected with losses. The Group of 5 champions get to choose where they want to play, so there may be some slight shuffling after Saturday’s results.
The one scenario that can actually change is if Marshall defeats Virginia Tech, and the Hokies do not become bowl eligible. In this case, I would slide Western Michigan to the Quick Lane Bowl, and put BYU in the Frisco Bowl.
Aside from that, this is the most accurate projection I have done. There will be slight changes based on which teams are selected for each bowl, but they will be very minor. This is a pretty realistic look at what Bowl Season will look like. I will do a final on next week, but not much will change.
Published November 25, 2018 @ 3:24 PM C.T., Updated November 27, 2018 @ 8:29 PM C.T.
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