Triple Option

By Michael Maynard

Last time I went really in depth with my rankings, which I won’t do this time because there’s essentially 9.5 teams that actually matter for the playoff: Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Michigan, Georgia, Oklahoma, Washington State, West Virginia, Ohio State, and kind of UCF.  Since I’m sure all the professional analysts have already tried explaining this, here’s the simplest way I can put everything.

The 4 teams at the top control their own destiny if they win out.  Any of them losing opens the door.  Clemson and Notre Dame might be in trouble if they lose, as then they are potentially compared to a 1-loss conference champion, those 3 potential teams being Oklahoma or West Virginia from the Big 12 or if Washington State wins the Pac 12.  That said, none of those 3 teams would have a significantly better resume than a 1-loss Clemson or Notre Dame, so the committee may not change their opinion of those two that much with a loss.

The one scenario that would really give the committee a headache is if everyone wins out but Georgia beats Alabama in a close game in the SEC Championship.  A 1-loss SEC Champ should be a lock to get in considering the depth of the conference (potentially 12 bowl eligible teams if everything bounces their way).  But Alabama has wagoned everyone they have played, so one close loss would have to be an aberration, and with the LSU win, we can’t really make the case they have a weaker strength of schedule.  Considering the committee’s current rankings, Michigan would probably fall out of the top 4, and the committee can use the Week 1 loss to Notre Dame to justify that.  So we could potentially be looking at 3 consecutive years of no playoff for the B1G.

I mention only mention UCF because if they finish undefeated and somehow Pitt beats Clemson in the ACC Championship, UCF did beat the crap out of Pitt at Heinz Field early in the year, so there may be an argument with a common opponent to put UCF in over Clemson.  I doubt that would happen, and UCF fans can then use the transitive property once again to call themselves back-to-back National Champions.  I was good with one time, I can’t do a second go of this.

Bowl Game Projections

These are based off my rankings, not the committee’s 78 teams play in 40 bowl games.  The 40th bowl game is the national championship. I have 81 teams projected to finish at least bowl eligible (6 wins).  FAU, Louisiana-Lafayette, and Coastal Carolina are left out.  I actually have no idea how this is determined.  Last year two MAC teams and UTSA were left out of bowl games despite obtaining bowl eligibility.  I am going with 7+ win teams get priority, then 6 win Power 5 teams, and then 6 win Group of 5 teams. In cases where a conference lacked a team to place in a bowl game, I filled that spot with the best at-large team available. Such instances are denoted with *.

College Football Playoff:

Orange: #1 Alabama vs. #4 Michigan

Cotton: #2 Clemson vs. #3 Notre Dame

New Year’s Six:

Peach: #6 West Virginia vs. #11 UCF

Fiesta: #10 LSU vs. #18 Syracuse

Rose: #7 Ohio State vs. #9 Washington State

Sugar: #5 Georgia vs. #8 Oklahoma

Other Bowl Games:

New Mexico: San Diego State vs. Middle Tennessee

Cure: Memphis vs. Louisiana-Monroe

Las Vegas: #25 Arizona State vs. #17 Utah State

Camellia: Eastern Michigan vs. Georgia Southern

New Orleans: UAB vs. Appalachian State

Boca Raton: USF vs. Buffalo

Frisco: Arizona* vs. Fresno State

Gasparilla: Houston vs. North Texas

Bahamas: Marshall vs. Ohio

Famous Idaho Potato: Western Michigan vs. Boise State

Birmingham: South Carolina vs. Tulane

Armed Forces: Oklahoma State vs. Temple

Dollar General: Northern Illinois vs. Troy

Hawaii: Lousiana Tech vs. Hawaii

First Responder: #24 Army vs. FIU

Quick Lane: Toledo* vs. Georgia Tech

Cheez-It: SMU vs. California

Independence: Mississippi State vs. Virginia

Pinstripe: Wisconsin vs. #23 Boston College

Texas: Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M

Music City:  Oregon* vs. BYU*

Camping World: #19 Iowa State vs. Pitt

Alamo: #12 Texas vs. Washington

Holiday: #20 Northwestern vs. Stanford

Belk: Auburn vs. NC State

Arizona: Nevada vs. Arkansas State

Military: Duke vs. #22 Cincinnati

Sun: USC vs. Miami (FL)

RedBox: Purdue vs. #16 Utah

Liberty: Baylor vs. Tennessee

Gator: Missouri vs. Iowa

Outback: #21 Michigan State vs. #15 Florida

Citrus: #13 Penn State vs. #14 Florida

Published November 13, 2018 @ 7:00 PM C.T.

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