Triple Option

By Michael Maynard

With the exception of Purdue’s shocking beatdown of Ohio State, not much changed in the top tier of teams.  Alabama, Oklahoma, and LSU won easily, Clemson and Michigan won somewhat statement games, and Notre Dame, Texas, West Virginia, And Florida were all off.  With November approaching, the 15ish teams with playoff hopes alive should be cut down to a few elite schools.  With that said, here’s a look inside the rankings and what the remaining contenders are looking at down the stretch.

The Contenders: #1 Alabama, #2 Notre Dame, #3 Clemson, #4 LSU, #5 Michigan, #6 Texas, #7 Ohio State, #8 Georgia, #9 Florida, #10 Oklahoma, #12 Kentucky,  #14 West Virginia, #21 Iowa

Let’s start off with the two easiest scenarios of Notre Dame and Clemson.  Clemson should be in as long as they win out.  I say should because it would probably take a 1-loss B1G team and a 1-loss Big 12 team and 2 SEC teams vying for a spot, in which case Clemson’s weak strength of schedule could cost them, but it’s unlikely an undefeated Power 5 school gets looked over.  Should they lose, it gets iffy.  Their best wins are at Texas A&M and this past week against NC State.  They still travel to Florida State and Boston College and host Duke and South Carolina, in addition to the ACC championship –all games they should win.  The ACC has been awful all-around this year which will hurt Clemson’s case should they lose.

Notre Dame is similar in that if they win out they’re in.  Wins against Michigan, Stanford, and at USC should be good enough considering the Michigan win looks better and better the more Michigan wins.  But should they lose, not having a conference championship to build the resume like everyone else would hurt.

Now to it gets interesting, starting with the SEC.  The easiest and most realistic case is Alabama wins out and they represent the SEC, as everyone else would have 2+ losses.  A road loss to LSU would open everything up, as LSU would control their own destiny to reach the SEC championship with only one loss to Florida.  This also puts a one-loss SEC East team in the picture.  The game of the week Florida vs. Georgia is a playoff elimination game, and with it most likely a conference championship elimination game.  Improbably enough the SEC East team that controls their own destiny is Kentucky.  If Georgia beats Florida, Florida is out in going 0-2 vs. UK & UGA.  Georgia still travels to Lexington, so in this scenario that game is a play-in game for the SEC championship. However if Florida beats Georgia, they need Georgia to beat Kentucky so that the head-to-head tiebreaker is not in effect.  If the previous sentence all happens but Florida loses another conference game to either Mizzou or South Carolina, they would all be 1-1 against each other, and Georgia and Kentucky would get priority in the tiebreaker for having a better division record than Florida, in which case Georgia goes to Atlanta.

Back to the point, an SEC Championship of LSU and a 1-loss SEC East team becomes a playoff play-in game.  But if Alabama is 11-1 and sitting on the bubble, we saw last year  a 2-team conference bid is in play.  Some factors are different in that we could be comparing Alabama to likely a 1-loss conference champion rather than a 2-loss Ohio State team, but Alabama is more dominant this year than last year.

One more brain-puzzle: Alabama could beat LSU and still lose to a 1-loss SEC team in the Conference Championship.  Now this becomes a near lock for the SEC to get 2 teams in because now Alabama has a huge true road win at LSU, and a 1-loss SEC champion is a lock to get in with the depth of the conference.

Paths to the playoffs still exist for the B1G and Big 12 if it doesn’t work out for the SEC to get 2 teams in or Clemson/ND loses.  Start with the B1G.  The most likely scenario is Ohio State and Michigan meet on Rivalry Week at the Shoe, much like they did 2 years ago, and the winner goes to the playoff granted they beat whomever represents the B1G West.  I imagine that happens.  Ohio State is trending down after getting dominated by Purdue, but it resembles last year’s loss to Iowa very closely, and after that game OSU was dominant.  They have been mostly steady this year and probably just needed one bad game as a wake-up call.  Michigan on the other hand has the best loss of the Opening Week one-possession loss at Notre Dame.  They do host Penn State which they can’t overlook, but they should go into Ann Arbor with the potential of being playoff bound.

I will address the recent Iowa hype by saying maybe there’s a chance but I doubt it. At Penn State, at Purdue, vs. Northwestern, a bye-week at Illinois, and finally at home against Nebraska.  That is a loaded slate.  But my skepticism comes from the fact their one-early shot at a statement win at home against Wisconsin didn’t go their way, which puts the pressure on them to have to win out.  Wisconsin also controls their own destiny in the West with that win.  Now if Iowa proves me wrong and wins out and wins the B1G Championship, it may be tough for the committee to pass.  But if I were the committee I’d still take Alabama over Iowa in a heartbeat.

The Big 12 has an outside chance in that they need one team to dominate.  The 3 contenders all have 1-loss, so there is no room for error.  The easiest outcome is Texas to beat West Virginia and then beat the winner of OU/WVU in the Big 12 championship.  That’s a 12-1 Power 5 team with 3 quality conference wins and a non-conference win vs. USC.  Then it comes down to how forgiving the committee is of their Opening Week dud against a Maryland team motivated from one of their players dying.  Also to consider is that Michigan, Ohio State, and even Iowa beat Maryland (or would beat in terms of OSU, I’m not putting them on upset watch yet).  Fair or not, that common opponent would be tough to ignore.

Oklahoma probably is in with a road win in Morgantown and if they avenged the Red River Shootout loss in the Big 12 Championship, with a little bit of help from the teams above them.  One point to consider is that Texas Tech has looked pretty legit, and could be a spoiler as both OU and UT go to Lubbock  the 3rd and 10th of November respectively.  West Virginia has a long shot to make it, but the loss to Iowa State really kills, especially in blowout fashion.  They do host both Oklahoma and Texas, but they need to win them both, which would likely pit them against Texas for the Big 12 championship where they need to win again.  However my sources in West Virginia are telling me there is still belief within the university despite the crushing loss, and West Virginia should bounce back vs. Baylor this Thursday.  All in all, the best case scenario for the conference is for both Texas and Oklahoma to meet again in the conference championship with 1-loss apiece, and the winner would either be the second win against a Top 10 opponent or avenge a earlier last-second loss.

Fillers: #11 UCF, #13 Penn State, #15 Texas A&M, #16 Washington, #17 Washington State, #18 Utah, #19 Stanford, #20 Wisconsin, #22 Utah State, #23 USC, #24 San Diego State, #25 NC State

Rankings can be misleading because they compare teams to each other at one particular instance of the season, rather than represent how close teams are to the playoff.  That explains why Penn State ranks eight slots ahead of Iowa despite having no real playoff aspirations.  But with the adopted 25-team ranking standard, in reality a good chunk of teams have no real chance of the playoff or even New Year’s Six contention.  So the term “fillers” represents the remaining teams that have been solid football teams in 2018 but are not close to the playoff.

The Pac 12 is the one Power 5 conference effectively eliminated from the playoff. Washington State is mathematically still alive at 6-1, but still has to travel to Stanford and Colorado and then host Washington.  Even with all those wins and a Pac 12 Championship, their non-conference S.O.S. is well below any other contenders.  Although it would be a great story if WSU made a playoff run in the season following the tragic suicide of their QB Tyler Hilinski.

Elsewhere in the Pac 12, if enough chaos happened where 2-loss team would get into the playoff, the Pac 12 is still last priority with an unimpressive non-conference performance.  Washington missed a statement win vs. Auburn, which might not have meant anything regardless as Auburn has struggled since.  Same with Stanford to Notre Dame, especially losing in blowout fashion.  The conference depth is good but almost too good as they have all knocked each other off so far (USC>WSU>Oregon>Stanford>Utah>USC, Colorado lost to USC and Washington) and will continue to with multiple upcoming matchups between those teams.  Now all 7 should go bowling with at least 8 wins, and maybe a wild card of ASU or Cal could get 2/3 of the conference bowling.

UCF is ranked #11, but they lack a signature win that would put them on par with the contenders.  Such are the hardships that a Group of 5 team endures.  They are the favorites to win the American and represent the Group of 5 in a New Year’s Six game.  They do still play a loaded schedule of: Temple, Navy, Cincinnati, at USF, and if all goes according to plan likely Houston for the AAC Championship.  Unless it’s 3-loss Temple or a 2-loss team that wins the American, in which case the MWC would get consideration if one of their three 1-loss won the conference, the AAC probably represents the Group of 5.

I have two of those three MWC teams ranked: Utah State and San Diego State.  Both have Opening Week road losses to Michigan State and Stanford respectively, but both have run the table since, although San Diego State dropped a few slots after a scare from winless San Jose State.

For the remainder of filler teams, Penn State has two tough home losses to Ohio State and Michigan State, and while they could easily be undefeated right now, the result of those two losses is that they are all but eliminated from the B1G title game. There is still a path to a New Year’s Six bowl if they win out.  Wisconsin still could win the B1G representing the West if they win out, which would mean beating Northwestern, Penn State, and Purdue all on the road.  The BYU loss kills.  Texas A&M has the best combination of two losses to Alabama and Clemson, but they beat Kentucky and can still play spoiler for LSU in Rivalry Week.  NC State rounds out the Top 25 after a blowout loss to Clemson, which demonstrates the distance between Clemson and the next best team in the ACC.  Not playing West Virginia because of the hurricane hurts both of them by removing a chance for a signature win.

Doorstep: USF, Fresno State, Purdue, Texas Tech, Army

USF is 7-0 but unconvincing; I don’t feel right putting them in my rankings.  While they have found ways to win, they struggled to defeat below average Power 5 opponents Georgia Tech and Illinois, which can’t happen for a Group of 5 team that wants to show itself.  On top of that they have barely escaped with wins against ECU, Tulane, and UConn, arguably the three worst AAC teams. The Bulls play a loaded schedule of: At Houston, Tulane, at Cincinnati, at Temple, and UCF in a revenge game from last year.  The winner of the USF-Houston matchup should find themselves ranked next week.

Fresno State has a tough road loss to Minnesota on a highlight reel goal line interception in the final minute.  Aside from that the Bulldogs are unblemished. They host Hawaii and San Diego State and travel to Boise, all challenging but potentially statement games.  Purdue moves on with its B1G pursuit with a ton of momentum from the Ohio State win.  They could easily be better than 4-3 with costly personal fouls in the Northwestern and Eastern Michigan losses and a last-second loss to Missouri. Texas Tech has looked surprisingly potent following the Opening Week loss to Ole Miss, doing so while rotating between multiple quarterbacks.  Army has an OT loss at Oklahoma and an Opening Week loss to Duke, but otherwise has been impressive with a nice road blowout of Buffalo.

Up and Coming: Oregon, Houston, Colorado, Buffalo, Virginia

I touched on Oregon and Colorado briefly in the Pac 12 overview.  Oregon has a good win against Washington but missed out on helpful wins against Stanford and Washington State that hurts their chances to play for the Pac 12 title.  Colorado had the early win at Nebraska, which hasn’t aged well as the Cornhuskers just last week won their first game. They also missed good win opportunities against USC and Washington, and now needs to beat Utah and get some help to play for the Pac 12 title.  Houston lost to Texas Tech but has been solid elsewhere, and has a rather easy path to the American Championship game in the weaker AAC West.  Again they get USF this week to help their cause. Buffalo should play for the MAC championship.  They beat Rutgers decisively although Rutgers should be in the MAC, and also have a win at Temple that continues to look better.  The Army loss killed their chances to play for a New Year’s Six bowl.  Virginia has beaten Miami and Duke in consecutive weeks, and it appears they would play in state rival Virginia Tech for the ACC Coastal spot in the Conference Championship game.

Make Some Noise Teams: Appalachian State, Michigan State, Iowa State, UAB, Northwestern

MSNs are teams not necessarily close to a Top 25 spot, but still have show enough where they might be able to shake some things up.  For instance, last week Purdue was an MSN. Appalachian’s not a State has breezed through their schedule since they made some noise with that Opening Week almost-upset in Happy Valley.  They face Georgia Southern in their first test since Penn State.  Michigan State and Northwestern have both disappointed their higher expectations, but play Purdue and Wisconsin respectively this week in possible bounce-back games.  Keep in mind Northwestern had the Opening Week win at Purdue, so if they beat Wisconsin and Iowa they’d likely represent the B1G West, even though they may be 8-4 overall.  Iowa State has looked like an entirely different team since transitioning to true freshman QB Brock Purdy, and put themselves back on that map with the win vs. West Virginia.  They face Texas Tech this week and can maybe play spoiler to Texas later in the season.  UAB has emerged as the C-USA favorite beating North Texas and Louisiana Tech, but with an early loss to Coastal Carolina won’t be considered for a New Year’s Six bowl. Still crazy for a program in only Year 2 of its revival.

That pretty much summarizes the first 8 weeks of College Football.  The teams up top have clear paths to the playoff, but the unexpected always happens as the season winds down.  These last six weeks will show who the contenders and pretenders are; it starts this week in Jacksonville.